Yum! Brands, Inc. (YUM)
Overview · Option chain · Volatility · Expected-move history · Earnings
Cboe delayed options data · as of 22:06 UTC · Figures derived from the full chain (440 contracts, 8 expirations) · IV own-history percentile appears after 60 recorded days (29 so far)
Expected move · Nov 20, 2026 (32 days)
Methodology →Read from option prices: the at-the-money straddle costs this much, so the market is pricing a move of about that size in either direction by this date. It is an estimate of movement, not a prediction of direction.
Options are pricing a move of about ±6.7% (range 139.78–159.88) by Nov 20, 2026. ATM straddle: 10.05 @ strike 150 · ATM IV: 28.3%.
Probability distribution
Model & assumptions →The curve shows where a lognormal model, fed with current implied volatility, puts the range of outcomes at this expiration. Shaded: the expected-move band.
| Level | vs price | P(above)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(below) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 134.85 | -10% | 88.8% | 11.2% |
| 142.34 | -5% | 71.6% | 28.4% |
| 149.83 | +0% | 48.3% | 51.7% |
| 157.32 | +5% | 26.6% | 73.4% |
| 164.81 | +10% | 11.9% | 88.1% |
Model-estimated probabilities of finishing above/below each level at expiration: estimates under stated assumptions, not predictions.
Probability explorer
Drag the slider to any level and see the model-estimated chance the stock finishes above or below it at the selected expiration.
Horizon: Nov 20, 2026 · lognormal model with zero drift: an estimate, not a prediction. Assumptions
Expirations
Open the chain →| Expires | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | Implied move | ATM IV | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 20, 2026 | 32 | ±6.7% | 28.3% | 5,840 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 60 | ±8.5% | 26.1% | 4,711 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 88 | ±9.8% | 24.9% | 9,891 |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 151 | ±13.4% | 26.3% | 2,202 |
| Apr 16, 2027 | 179 | ±14.7% | 26.4% | 64 |
Open interest by strike · Nov 20
Where option positions are concentrated. Teal bars are calls, red bars are puts; the dashed line is the current price.
Largest open-interest concentrations (all expirations ≤ 60 days): 160 C · 3,725155 C · 925145 C · 842165 C · 824130 P · 699
IV term structure
Volatility page →At-the-money implied volatility for each expiration. A hump around a date often marks a scheduled event the market is pricing.
When does open interest expire?
Implied vs realized volatility
HV from our stored daily closes (annualized); IV30 interpolated from the chain. Method
Price, last 60 sessions
Daily closes; Financial Modeling Prep.
Track record
Full history →Of 43 recorded snapshot-versus-outcome comparisons so far, the close landed inside the expected range 39.5% of the time.
Past earnings reactions
Avg |reaction| 2.5% · median 1.6% (20 reports). Two-session close-to-close window; definition
About Yum! Brands, Inc.
YUM! Brands, Inc. (YUM) is a leading global quick-service restaurant enterprise that focuses on the creation, management, and franchising of its restaurant concepts internationally. Its business is organized into four main divisions: KFC, Taco Bell, Pizza Hut, and The Habit Burger Grill. The company operates establishments under these well-known brands, offering diverse food categories such as chicken, pizza, Mexican-style dishes, and made-to-order chargrilled burgers and sandwiches, among other food products. As of December 31, 2021, YUM! Brands boasted a significant worldwide presence, comprising 26,934 KFC outlets, 18,381 Pizza Hut locations, 7,791 Taco Bell restaurants, and 318 The Habit Burger Grill units, spread across roughly 157 countries and territories. The company, which maintains its headquarters in Louisville, Kentucky, was established in 1997. It was formerly known as TRICON Global Restaurants, Inc., before officially adopting the name YUM! Brands, Inc. in May 2002.
Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants · NYSE · Profile: Financial Modeling Prep
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