State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP · ETF)
Overview · Option chain · Volatility · Expected-move history
Cboe delayed options data · as of 09:44 UTC · Figures derived from the full chain (1,040 contracts, 12 expirations) · IV own-history percentile appears after 60 recorded days (28 so far)
Expected move · Nov 20, 2026 (32 days)
Methodology →Read from option prices: the at-the-money straddle costs this much, so the market is pricing a move of about that size in either direction by this date. It is an estimate of movement, not a prediction of direction.
Options are pricing a move of about ±4.2% (range 83.92–91.33) by Nov 20, 2026. ATM straddle: 3.71 @ strike 88 · ATM IV: 16.9%.
Probability distribution
Model & assumptions →The curve shows where a lognormal model, fed with current implied volatility, puts the range of outcomes at this expiration. Shaded: the expected-move band.
| Level | vs price | P(above)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(below) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 78.86 | -10% | 98.1% | 1.9% |
| 83.24 | -5% | 84.1% | 15.9% |
| 87.62 | +0% | 49.0% | 51.0% |
| 92.00 | +5% | 15.9% | 84.1% |
| 96.38 | +10% | 2.7% | 97.3% |
Model-estimated probabilities of finishing above/below each level at expiration: estimates under stated assumptions, not predictions.
Probability explorer
Drag the slider to any level and see the model-estimated chance the stock finishes above or below it at the selected expiration.
Horizon: Nov 20, 2026 · lognormal model with zero drift: an estimate, not a prediction. Assumptions
Expirations
Open the chain →| Expires | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | Implied move | ATM IV | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | 4 | ±2.0% | 19.6% | 11.3K |
| Oct 30, 2026 | 11 | ±2.7% | 17.1% | 18.3K |
| Nov 06, 2026 | 18 | ±3.4% | 17.5% | 13.4K |
| Nov 13, 2026 | 25 | ±4.1% | 18.1% | 12.1K |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 32 | ±4.2% | 16.9% | 57.6K |
| Nov 27, 2026 | 39 | ±4.6% | 16.6% | 1,255 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 60 | ±4.6% | 13.7% | 168.3K |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 88 | ±7.2% | 17.9% | 89.7K |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 151 | ±8.7% | 16.5% | 47.7K |
Open interest by strike · Nov 20
Where option positions are concentrated. Teal bars are calls, red bars are puts; the dashed line is the current price.
Largest open-interest concentrations (all expirations ≤ 60 days): 80 P · 82.7K84 P · 24.0K78 P · 20.7K85 P · 18.5K83 P · 17.7K
IV term structure
Volatility page →At-the-money implied volatility for each expiration. A hump around a date often marks a scheduled event the market is pricing.
When does open interest expire?
Implied vs realized volatility
HV from our stored daily closes (annualized); IV30 interpolated from the chain. Method
Price, last 60 sessions
Daily closes; Financial Modeling Prep.
Track record
Full history →Of 93 recorded snapshot-versus-outcome comparisons so far, the close landed inside the expected range 66.7% of the time.
About State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF
The State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) aims to replicate the overall return, including price movement and dividend income, of the Consumer Staples Select Sector Index, prior to accounting for expenses. This benchmark effectively reflects the performance of companies within the consumer staples sector of the S&P 500. The ETF offers focused investment in U.S.-based firms involved in essential goods industries, specifically those in consumer staples distribution and retail, household items, food, beverages, tobacco, and personal hygiene products. This structure enables investors to establish precise strategic or short-term tactical allocations, providing a more granular focus than broader, style-based investment vehicles.
ETF · Asset Management · AMEX · Profile: Financial Modeling Prep
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