XLP historial de movimiento esperado State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas93
Cierre dentro del rango67%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado67%
Movimiento esperado promedio±2.7%
Movimiento |real| promedio2.0%
Error medio abs.1.3pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | Oct 16 | 0 | 87.55 | ±2.5% | 85.33–89.78 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 16 | 2 | 86.03 | ±1.0% | 85.18–86.88 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 16 | 3 | 84.01 | ±1.5% | 82.73–85.28 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 16 | 7 | 83.43 | ±1.6% | 82.11–84.75 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 16 | 8 | 83.57 | ±2.1% | 81.79–85.35 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 16 | 9 | 81.70 | ±2.6% | 79.61–83.79 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 16 | 10 | 81.78 | ±2.8% | 79.52–84.05 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 16 | 11 | 80.86 | ±2.5% | 78.80–82.92 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 16 | 14 | 80.53 | ±1.9% | 78.97–82.08 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 16 | 15 | 80.39 | ±2.5% | 78.39–82.39 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 16 | 23 | 82.85 | ±2.8% | 80.51–85.19 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 16 | 24 | 82.85 | ±2.8% | 80.51–85.19 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 16 | 25 | 82.03 | ±3.1% | 79.50–84.56 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 16 | 28 | 82.98 | ±3.0% | 80.49–85.48 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 16 | 29 | 83.45 | ±3.2% | 80.80–86.11 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 16 | 30 | 83.36 | ±4.9% | 79.30–87.42 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 16 | 31 | 83.80 | ±3.5% | 80.82–86.77 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 16 | 32 | 84.30 | ±4.0% | 80.94–87.66 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 16 | 35 | 83.41 | ±3.8% | 80.27–86.54 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 16 | 36 | 83.11 | ±4.0% | 79.76–86.47 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 16 | 37 | 82.95 | ±4.0% | 79.65–86.26 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 16 | 38 | 84.00 | ±3.9% | 80.69–87.31 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 16 | 39 | 84.58 | ±3.8% | 81.33–87.83 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 16 | 42 | 84.74 | ±3.9% | 81.42–88.06 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 16 | 43 | 85.17 | ±4.1% | 81.69–88.65 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Oct 16 | 44 | 85.59 | ±4.2% | 81.96–89.23 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Oct 16 | 45 | 85.35 | ±4.0% | 81.92–88.78 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Oct 16 | 46 | 85.05 | ±4.3% | 81.39–88.69 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 87.55 | ±2.0% | 85.80–89.30 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 86.03 | ±1.8% | 84.44–87.62 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.4% | +0.0% | dentro | 83.43 → 83.43 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.3% | -0.2% | dentro | 83.57 → 83.43 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.3% | +2.1% | dentro | 81.70 → 83.43 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.7% | +2.0% | fuera | 81.78 → 83.43 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.3% | +3.2% | dentro | 80.86 → 83.43 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.3% | +3.6% | fuera | 80.53 → 83.43 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.8% | +3.8% | fuera | 80.39 → 83.43 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.4% | +0.7% | dentro | 82.85 → 83.43 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.4% | +0.7% | dentro | 82.85 → 83.43 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.6% | +1.7% | dentro | 82.03 → 83.43 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.7% | +0.5% | dentro | 82.98 → 83.43 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.9% | -0.0% | dentro | 83.45 → 83.43 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.9% | +0.1% | dentro | 83.36 → 83.43 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.3% | -0.4% | dentro | 83.80 → 83.43 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.6% | -1.0% | dentro | 84.30 → 83.43 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.3% | +0.0% | dentro | 83.41 → 83.43 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.6% | +0.4% | dentro | 83.11 → 83.43 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.7% | +0.6% | dentro | 82.95 → 83.43 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.6% | -0.7% | dentro | 84.00 → 83.43 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.5% | -1.4% | dentro | 84.58 → 83.43 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.6% | -1.5% | dentro | 84.74 → 83.43 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.9% | -2.0% | dentro | 85.17 → 83.43 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.8% | -2.5% | dentro | 85.59 → 83.43 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.7% | -2.2% | dentro | 85.35 → 83.43 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.9% | -1.9% | dentro | 85.05 → 83.43 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.1% | +0.0% | dentro | 80.53 → 80.53 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.7% | +0.2% | dentro | 80.39 → 80.53 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.9% | -2.8% | fuera | 82.85 → 80.53 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.9% | -2.8% | fuera | 82.85 → 80.53 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.0% | -1.8% | dentro | 82.03 → 80.53 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.2% | -3.0% | fuera | 82.98 → 80.53 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.4% | -3.5% | fuera | 83.45 → 80.53 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.0% | -3.4% | dentro | 83.36 → 80.53 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.8% | -3.9% | fuera | 83.80 → 80.53 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.5% | -4.5% | dentro | 84.30 → 80.53 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.8% | -3.4% | fuera | 83.41 → 80.53 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.2% | -3.1% | dentro | 83.11 → 80.53 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.2% | -2.9% | dentro | 82.95 → 80.53 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.3% | -4.1% | fuera | 84.00 → 80.53 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.6% | -4.8% | fuera | 84.58 → 80.53 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.2% | -5.0% | fuera | 84.74 → 80.53 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.2% | -5.4% | fuera | 85.17 → 80.53 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.4% | -5.9% | fuera | 85.59 → 80.53 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.8% | -5.6% | fuera | 85.35 → 80.53 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.6% | -5.3% | fuera | 85.05 → 80.53 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±1.1% | -1.0% | dentro | 82.85 → 82.06 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±1.1% | -1.0% | dentro | 82.85 → 82.06 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±1.4% | +0.0% | dentro | 82.03 → 82.06 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±1.6% | -1.1% | dentro | 82.98 → 82.06 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±1.9% | -1.7% | dentro | 83.45 → 82.06 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.3% | -1.6% | dentro | 83.36 → 82.06 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±2.3% | -2.1% | dentro | 83.80 → 82.06 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.8% | -2.7% | dentro | 84.30 → 82.06 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±2.4% | -1.6% | dentro | 83.41 → 82.06 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±2.7% | -1.3% | dentro | 83.11 → 82.06 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±2.8% | -1.1% | dentro | 82.95 → 82.06 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±2.6% | -2.3% | dentro | 84.00 → 82.06 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.2% | -3.0% | dentro | 84.58 → 82.06 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±2.9% | -3.2% | fuera | 84.74 → 82.06 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.5% | -3.6% | dentro | 85.17 → 82.06 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.