State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE · ETF)
Overview · Option chain · Volatility · Expected-move history
Cboe delayed options data · as of 00:39 UTC · Figures derived from the full chain (1,964 contracts, 24 expirations) · IV own-history percentile appears after 60 recorded days (3 so far)
Expected move — Sep 18, 2026 (16 days)
Methodology →Read from option prices: the at-the-money straddle costs this much, so the market is pricing a move of about that size in either direction by this date. It is an estimate of movement, not a prediction of direction.
Options are pricing a move of about ±4.0% (range 62.47–67.73) by Sep 18, 2026. ATM straddle: 2.63 @ strike 65 · ATM IV: 24.1%.
Probability distribution
Model & assumptions →The curve shows where a lognormal model, fed with current implied volatility, puts the range of outcomes at this expiration. Shaded: the expected-move band.
| Level | vs price | P(above)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(below) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 58.59 | -10% | 98.0% | 2.0% |
| 61.84 | -5% | 84.0% | 16.0% |
| 65.10 | +0% | 49.0% | 51.0% |
| 68.36 | +5% | 16.0% | 84.0% |
| 71.61 | +10% | 2.8% | 97.2% |
Model-estimated probabilities of finishing above/below each level at expiration — estimates under stated assumptions, not predictions.
Probability explorer
Drag the slider to any level and see the model-estimated chance the stock finishes above or below it at the selected expiration.
Horizon: Sep 18, 2026 · lognormal model, zero drift — an estimate, not a prediction. Assumptions
Expirations
Open the chain →| Expires | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | Implied move | ATM IV | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 02, 2026 | 0 | ±0.3% | 60.7% | 23.9K |
| Sep 04, 2026 | 2 | ±1.6% | 26.6% | 65.8K |
| Sep 09, 2026 | 7 | ±2.4% | 21.3% | 5,081 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 9 | ±2.7% | 21.2% | 48.4K |
| Sep 14, 2026 | 12 | ±3.0% | 20.6% | 3,627 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | 14 | ±3.5% | 22.4% | 319 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 16 | ±4.0% | 24.1% | 1.18M |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 23 | ±4.9% | 23.7% | 6,957 |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 28 | ±5.3% | 23.4% | 43.3K |
| Oct 02, 2026 | 30 | ±5.6% | 24.1% | 3,320 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | 37 | ±6.3% | 24.6% | 799 |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 44 | ±7.0% | 25.2% | 213.4K |
Open interest by strike — Sep 18
Where option positions are concentrated. Teal bars are calls, red bars are puts; the dashed line is the current price.
Largest open-interest concentrations (all expirations ≤ 60 days): 55 P · 117.5K65 C · 101.7K52.5 P · 97.0K60 C · 95.0K59 P · 71.4K
IV term structure
Volatility page →At-the-money implied volatility for each expiration. A hump around a date often marks a scheduled event the market is pricing.
When does open interest expire?
Implied vs realized volatility
HV from our stored daily closes (annualized); IV30 interpolated from the chain. Method
Price, last 60 sessions
Track record
Full history →Of 1 recorded snapshot-versus-outcome comparisons so far, the close landed inside the expected range 100.0% of the time.
About State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF
The State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) is engineered to mirror the overall return (both price appreciation and dividend income) of the Energy Select Sector Index, prior to any operational costs. This underlying index is specifically constructed to accurately reflect the performance of the energy companies within the S&P 500. The ETF grants investors precise access to businesses engaged in core energy industries, including oil, natural gas, other consumable fuels, and the associated equipment and services sectors. This focused targeting allows market participants to establish either long-term strategic allocations or short-term tactical positions within the energy space, offering a more refined exposure than conventional, broad-based investment styles.
ETF · Asset Management · AMEX · Profile: Financial Modeling Prep
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