Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM)
Overview · Option chain · Volatility · Expected-move history · Earnings
Cboe delayed options data · as of 09:43 UTC · Figures derived from the full chain (2,362 contracts, 18 expirations) · IV own-history percentile appears after 60 recorded days (28 so far)
Expected move · Nov 20, 2026 (32 days)
Methodology →Read from option prices: the at-the-money straddle costs this much, so the market is pricing a move of about that size in either direction by this date. It is an estimate of movement, not a prediction of direction.
Options are pricing a move of about ±8.1% (range 379.00–445.50) by Nov 20, 2026. ATM straddle: 33.25 @ strike 410 · ATM IV: 32.5%.
Probability distribution
Model & assumptions →The curve shows where a lognormal model, fed with current implied volatility, puts the range of outcomes at this expiration. Shaded: the expected-move band.
| Level | vs price | P(above)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(below) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 371.02 | -10% | 85.3% | 14.7% |
| 391.63 | -5% | 68.6% | 31.4% |
| 412.25 | +0% | 48.1% | 51.9% |
| 432.86 | +5% | 28.9% | 71.1% |
| 453.47 | +10% | 14.9% | 85.1% |
Model-estimated probabilities of finishing above/below each level at expiration: estimates under stated assumptions, not predictions.
Probability explorer
Drag the slider to any level and see the model-estimated chance the stock finishes above or below it at the selected expiration.
Horizon: Nov 20, 2026 · lognormal model with zero drift: an estimate, not a prediction. Assumptions
Expirations
Open the chain →| Expires | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | Implied move | ATM IV | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | 4 | ±3.8% | 33.8% | 62.7K |
| Oct 30, 2026 | 11 | ±5.4% | 34.1% | 41.6K |
| Nov 06, 2026 | 18 | ±6.5% | 33.8% | 33.9K |
| Nov 13, 2026 | 25 | ±7.3% | 32.6% | 10.7K |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 32 | ±8.1% | 32.5% | 189.5K |
| Nov 27, 2026 | 39 | ±8.6% | 31.8% | 14.4K |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 60 | ±10.7% | 32.3% | 307.7K |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 88 | ±13.0% | 32.4% | 417.8K |
| Feb 19, 2027 | 123 | ±15.6% | 33.2% | 59.1K |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 151 | ±17.6% | 33.9% | 100.0K |
| Apr 16, 2027 | 179 | ±19.4% | 34.6% | 29.2K |
Open interest by strike · Nov 20
Where option positions are concentrated. Teal bars are calls, red bars are puts; the dashed line is the current price.
Largest open-interest concentrations (all expirations ≤ 60 days): 400 P · 32.1K360 P · 26.5K500 C · 26.0K460 C · 21.6K300 P · 18.1K
IV term structure
Volatility page →At-the-money implied volatility for each expiration. A hump around a date often marks a scheduled event the market is pricing.
When does open interest expire?
Implied vs realized volatility
HV from our stored daily closes (annualized); IV30 interpolated from the chain. Method
Price, last 60 sessions
Daily closes; Financial Modeling Prep.
Track record
Full history →Of 93 recorded snapshot-versus-outcome comparisons so far, the close landed inside the expected range 44.1% of the time.
Past earnings reactions
Avg |reaction| 3.7% · median 3.2% (21 reports). Two-session close-to-close window; definition
About Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSMC), along with its affiliated entities, operates globally in the semiconductor industry, specializing in the manufacturing, packaging, meticulous testing, and worldwide distribution of integrated circuits and other crucial semiconductor components. Its expansive international presence covers key markets such as Taiwan, China, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Japan, and the United States. The company is renowned for its diverse array of wafer fabrication processes. These capabilities enable the production of various advanced semiconductor types, including complementary metal-oxide-semiconductor (CMOS) logic, mixed-signal devices, radio frequency components, embedded memory, and bipolar CMOS mixed-signal circuits. Beyond its core foundry services, TSMC extends its offerings to include dedicated customer and engineering support. It also undertakes the production of specialized masks, actively invests in burgeoning technology startups, and manages the entire lifecycle—from research and development through to manufacturing, packaging, testing, and sales—of color filters. Furthermore, the company provides a range of investment servic
Technology · Semiconductors · NYSE · Profile: Financial Modeling Prep
TSM news
All news →China Moves to Control AI Tech Exports While Taiwan Cracks Down on Smuggling
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Barrons · Oct 16, 12:37 UTC ↗Investors Dial Back October Hike Bets After Warsh; Taiwan to Curb AI Chip Exports to China
US equity futures waver after rising on Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's remarks at the IMF meetings. Taiwan is said to be preparing to…
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