Target Corporation (TGT)
Overview · Option chain · Volatility · Expected-move history · Earnings
Cboe delayed options data · as of 12:41 UTC · Figures derived from the full chain (1,186 contracts, 16 expirations) · IV own-history percentile appears after 60 recorded days (28 so far)
Expected move · Nov 20, 2026 (32 days)
Methodology →Read from option prices: the at-the-money straddle costs this much, so the market is pricing a move of about that size in either direction by this date. It is an estimate of movement, not a prediction of direction.
Options are pricing a move of about ±10.0% (range 138.54–169.44) by Nov 20, 2026. ATM straddle: 15.45 @ strike 155 · ATM IV: 40.1%.
Probability distribution
Model & assumptions →The curve shows where a lognormal model, fed with current implied volatility, puts the range of outcomes at this expiration. Shaded: the expected-move band.
| Level | vs price | P(above)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(below) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 138.59 | -10% | 79.6% | 20.4% |
| 146.29 | -5% | 64.5% | 35.5% |
| 153.99 | +0% | 47.6% | 52.4% |
| 161.69 | +5% | 31.9% | 68.1% |
| 169.39 | +10% | 19.4% | 80.6% |
Model-estimated probabilities of finishing above/below each level at expiration: estimates under stated assumptions, not predictions.
Probability explorer
Drag the slider to any level and see the model-estimated chance the stock finishes above or below it at the selected expiration.
Horizon: Nov 20, 2026 · lognormal model with zero drift: an estimate, not a prediction. Assumptions
Expirations
Open the chain →| Expires | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | Implied move | ATM IV | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | 4 | ±3.2% | 28.6% | 8,959 |
| Oct 30, 2026 | 11 | ±4.7% | 29.6% | 2,939 |
| Nov 06, 2026 | 18 | ±5.7% | 29.3% | 2,643 |
| Nov 13, 2026 | 25 | ±6.9% | 30.0% | 1,416 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 32 | ±10.0% | 40.1% | 26.0K |
| Nov 27, 2026 | 39 | ±10.5% | 38.4% | 124 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 60 | ±11.8% | 35.6% | 78.5K |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 88 | ±13.4% | 33.5% | 130.4K |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 151 | ±17.8% | 34.4% | 12.6K |
| Apr 16, 2027 | 179 | ±19.3% | 34.4% | 1,117 |
Open interest by strike · Nov 20
Where option positions are concentrated. Teal bars are calls, red bars are puts; the dashed line is the current price.
Largest open-interest concentrations (all expirations ≤ 60 days): 120 C · 9,281155 P · 5,898160 C · 5,422100 P · 4,134155 C · 3,970
IV term structure
Volatility page →At-the-money implied volatility for each expiration. A hump around a date often marks a scheduled event the market is pricing.
When does open interest expire?
Implied vs realized volatility
HV from our stored daily closes (annualized); IV30 interpolated from the chain. Method
Price, last 60 sessions
Daily closes; Financial Modeling Prep.
Track record
Full history →Of 93 recorded snapshot-versus-outcome comparisons so far, the close landed inside the expected range 91.4% of the time.
Past earnings reactions
Avg |reaction| 8.3% · median 5.5% (21 reports). Two-session close-to-close window; definition
About Target Corporation
Target Corp. engages in the operation and ownership of general merchandise stores. It offers food and general merchandise, clothing and household goods, electronics, and toys. Its brands include A New Day, All in Motion, Art Class, Auden, AVA & VIV, Boots and Barkley, Brightroom, Bullseye's Playground, Casaluna, Cat & Jack, Cloud Island, Colsie, dealworthy, Embark, Everspring, Favorite Day, Figmint, Future Collective, Gigglescape, Good & Gather, Goodfellow & Co, Hearth & Hand with Magnolia, Heyday, Hyde & EEK! Boutique, JoyLab, Kindfull, Kona Sol, Made By Design, Market Pantry, Mondo Llama, More Than Magic, Opalhouse, Open Story, Original Use, Pillowfort, Project 62, Room Essentials, Shade & Shore, Smartly, Smith & Hawken, Sonia Kashuk, Spritz, Sun Squad, Threshold, Universal Thread, up&up, Wild Fable, Wondershop, Xhilaration, California Roots, Casa Cantina, The Collection, Headliner, Jingle & Mingle, Rosé Bae, Photograph, SunPop, and Wine Cube. The company was founded by George Draper Dayton in 1902 and is headquartered in Minneapolis, MN.
Consumer Defensive · Discount Stores · NYSE · Profile: Financial Modeling Prep
TGT news
All news →Dow Jones Forecast: 55,000 Target Faces Trump Tariffs and Fed Risks
The Dow Jones eyes 55,000 as Trump's tariff relief offers some support. But inflation risks and rising import costs could slow the recovery.
FXEmpire · Oct 17, 05:25 UTC ↗Related securities · Consumer Defensive
KO · IV 22.1%PEP · IV 21.3%MO · IV 26.9%PG · IV 21.5%KHC · IV 31.2%WMT · IV 28.8%