Trip.com Group Limited (TCOM)
Overview · Option chain · Volatility · Expected-move history · Earnings
Cboe delayed options data · as of 18:38 UTC · Figures derived from the full chain (212 contracts, 7 expirations) · IV own-history percentile appears after 60 recorded days (3 so far)
Expected move — Sep 18, 2026 (15 days)
Methodology →Read from option prices: the at-the-money straddle costs this much, so the market is pricing a move of about that size in either direction by this date. It is an estimate of movement, not a prediction of direction.
Options are pricing a move of about ±11.3% (range 37.15–46.65) by Sep 18, 2026. ATM straddle: 4.75 @ strike 40 · ATM IV: 50.7%.
Probability distribution
Model & assumptions →The curve shows where a lognormal model, fed with current implied volatility, puts the range of outcomes at this expiration. Shaded: the expected-move band.
| Level | vs price | P(above)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(below) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 37.71 | -10% | 83.5% | 16.5% |
| 39.81 | -5% | 67.3% | 32.7% |
| 41.90 | -0% | 48.0% | 52.0% |
| 44.00 | +5% | 29.9% | 70.1% |
| 46.09 | +10% | 16.4% | 83.6% |
Model-estimated probabilities of finishing above/below each level at expiration — estimates under stated assumptions, not predictions.
Probability explorer
Drag the slider to any level and see the model-estimated chance the stock finishes above or below it at the selected expiration.
Horizon: Sep 18, 2026 · lognormal model, zero drift — an estimate, not a prediction. Assumptions
Expirations
Open the chain →| Expires | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | Implied move | ATM IV | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 2026 | 15 | ±11.3% | 50.7% | 33.5K |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 43 | ±12.3% | 34.0% | 3,427 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 106 | ±17.4% | 35.8% | 14.2K |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 134 | ±18.7% | 36.9% | 44.2K |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 197 | ±23.1% | 36.6% | 2,438 |
Open interest by strike — Sep 18
Where option positions are concentrated. Teal bars are calls, red bars are puts; the dashed line is the current price.
Largest open-interest concentrations (all expirations ≤ 60 days): 40 P · 5,66250 P · 5,52645 P · 5,25160 C · 4,24150 C · 3,983
IV term structure
Volatility page →At-the-money implied volatility for each expiration. A hump around a date often marks a scheduled event the market is pricing.
When does open interest expire?
Implied vs realized volatility
HV from our stored daily closes (annualized); IV30 interpolated from the chain. Method
Price, last 60 sessions
Track record
Full history →Every trading day we record what the options market is pricing for each expiration — before the outcome is known. Once expirations start resolving, this section compares expected versus actual, and the record is never rewritten. Recording since Aug 31, 2026.
Past earnings reactions
Avg |reaction| 6.2% · median 4.6% (20 reports) — two-session close-to-close window; definition
About Trip.com Group Limited
Trip.com Group Limited stands as a leading global travel service provider, operating extensively both within China and across international markets. Through its various subsidiaries, the company offers a comprehensive spectrum of travel-related solutions. As a booking intermediary, it facilitates hotel accommodations and air ticket purchases, complementing these with access to train, long-distance bus, and ferry tickets. The firm enhances the travel experience with various value-added services, including a range of travel insurance products (covering aspects like flight delays, accidents, and baggage loss), along with conveniences such as ticket delivery, online check-in, seat selection, expedited security, real-time flight tracking, and airport VIP lounge access. Catering to leisure travelers, Trip.com Group curates diverse packaged tour products, from organized group excursions and semi-private trips to fully customized itineraries. These packages incorporate various transportation options, including air and cruise travel, as well as bus and car rental services. Furthermore, its in-destination offerings are extensive, providing local transportation, activity and attraction ticket
Consumer Cyclical · Travel Services · NASDAQ · Profile: Financial Modeling Prep
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