Trip.com Group Limited (TCOM)
Overview · Option chain · Volatility · Expected-move history · Earnings
Cboe delayed options data · as of 00:38 UTC · Figures derived from the full chain (212 contracts, 7 expirations) · IV own-history percentile appears after 60 recorded days (3 so far)
Expected move — Sep 18, 2026 (16 days)
Methodology →Read from option prices: the at-the-money straddle costs this much, so the market is pricing a move of about that size in either direction by this date. It is an estimate of movement, not a prediction of direction.
Options are pricing a move of about ±7.2% (range 40.58–46.88) by Sep 18, 2026. ATM straddle: 3.15 @ strike 45 · ATM IV: 40.1%.
Probability distribution
Model & assumptions →The curve shows where a lognormal model, fed with current implied volatility, puts the range of outcomes at this expiration. Shaded: the expected-move band.
| Level | vs price | P(above)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(below) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 39.36 | -10% | 88.7% | 11.3% |
| 41.54 | -5% | 71.6% | 28.4% |
| 43.73 | +0% | 48.3% | 51.7% |
| 45.92 | +5% | 26.6% | 73.4% |
| 48.10 | +10% | 12.0% | 88.0% |
Model-estimated probabilities of finishing above/below each level at expiration — estimates under stated assumptions, not predictions.
Probability explorer
Drag the slider to any level and see the model-estimated chance the stock finishes above or below it at the selected expiration.
Horizon: Sep 18, 2026 · lognormal model, zero drift — an estimate, not a prediction. Assumptions
Expirations
Open the chain →| Expires | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | Implied move | ATM IV | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 2026 | 16 | ±7.2% | 40.1% | 33.8K |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 44 | ±9.0% | 30.5% | 2,361 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 107 | ±14.4% | 32.6% | 14.4K |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 135 | ±17.9% | 36.9% | 44.2K |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 198 | ±21.3% | 35.7% | 2,437 |
Open interest by strike — Sep 18
Where option positions are concentrated. Teal bars are calls, red bars are puts; the dashed line is the current price.
Largest open-interest concentrations (all expirations ≤ 60 days): 40 P · 5,71950 P · 5,52845 P · 4,99460 C · 4,24150 C · 4,054
IV term structure
Volatility page →At-the-money implied volatility for each expiration. A hump around a date often marks a scheduled event the market is pricing.
When does open interest expire?
Implied vs realized volatility
HV from our stored daily closes (annualized); IV30 interpolated from the chain. Method
Price, last 60 sessions
Track record
Full history →Every trading day we record what the options market is pricing for each expiration — before the outcome is known. Once expirations start resolving, this section compares expected versus actual, and the record is never rewritten. Recording since Aug 31, 2026.
Past earnings reactions
Avg |reaction| 6.2% · median 4.6% (20 reports) — two-session close-to-close window; definition
About Trip.com Group Limited
Trip.com Group Limited stands as a leading global travel service provider, operating extensively both within China and across international markets. Through its various subsidiaries, the company offers a comprehensive spectrum of travel-related solutions. As a booking intermediary, it facilitates hotel accommodations and air ticket purchases, complementing these with access to train, long-distance bus, and ferry tickets. The firm enhances the travel experience with various value-added services, including a range of travel insurance products (covering aspects like flight delays, accidents, and baggage loss), along with conveniences such as ticket delivery, online check-in, seat selection, expedited security, real-time flight tracking, and airport VIP lounge access. Catering to leisure travelers, Trip.com Group curates diverse packaged tour products, from organized group excursions and semi-private trips to fully customized itineraries. These packages incorporate various transportation options, including air and cruise travel, as well as bus and car rental services. Furthermore, its in-destination offerings are extensive, providing local transportation, activity and attraction ticket
Consumer Cyclical · Travel Services · NASDAQ · Profile: Financial Modeling Prep
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