Trip.com Group Limited (TCOM)
Overview · Option chain · Volatility · Expected-move history · Earnings
Cboe delayed options data · as of 12:41 UTC · Figures derived from the full chain (254 contracts, 7 expirations) · IV own-history percentile appears after 60 recorded days (28 so far)
Expected move · Nov 20, 2026 (32 days)
Methodology →Read from option prices: the at-the-money straddle costs this much, so the market is pricing a move of about that size in either direction by this date. It is an estimate of movement, not a prediction of direction.
Options are pricing a move of about ±9.7% (range 36.37–44.17) by Nov 20, 2026. ATM straddle: 3.90 @ strike 40 · ATM IV: 39.1%.
Probability distribution
Model & assumptions →The curve shows where a lognormal model, fed with current implied volatility, puts the range of outcomes at this expiration. Shaded: the expected-move band.
| Level | vs price | P(above)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(below) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36.24 | -10% | 80.3% | 19.7% |
| 38.26 | -5% | 64.9% | 35.1% |
| 40.27 | +0% | 47.7% | 52.3% |
| 42.28 | +5% | 31.6% | 68.4% |
| 44.30 | +10% | 18.9% | 81.1% |
Model-estimated probabilities of finishing above/below each level at expiration: estimates under stated assumptions, not predictions.
Probability explorer
Drag the slider to any level and see the model-estimated chance the stock finishes above or below it at the selected expiration.
Horizon: Nov 20, 2026 · lognormal model with zero drift: an estimate, not a prediction. Assumptions
Expirations
Open the chain →| Expires | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | Implied move | ATM IV | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 20, 2026 | 32 | ±9.7% | 39.1% | 4,601 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 60 | ±10.9% | 32.7% | 18.1K |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 88 | ±13.7% | 34.3% | 44.6K |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 151 | ±18.0% | 34.8% | 11.5K |
Open interest by strike · Nov 20
Where option positions are concentrated. Teal bars are calls, red bars are puts; the dashed line is the current price.
Largest open-interest concentrations (all expirations ≤ 60 days): 40 P · 6,41745 C · 4,37145 P · 3,24035 P · 2,98150 C · 2,114
IV term structure
Volatility page →At-the-money implied volatility for each expiration. A hump around a date often marks a scheduled event the market is pricing.
When does open interest expire?
Implied vs realized volatility
HV from our stored daily closes (annualized); IV30 interpolated from the chain. Method
Price, last 60 sessions
Daily closes; Financial Modeling Prep.
Track record
Full history →Of 15 recorded snapshot-versus-outcome comparisons so far, the close landed inside the expected range 80.0% of the time.
Past earnings reactions
Avg |reaction| 6.1% · median 3.9% (21 reports). Two-session close-to-close window; definition
About Trip.com Group Limited
Trip.com Group Limited stands as a leading global travel service provider, operating extensively both within China and across international markets. Through its various subsidiaries, the company offers a comprehensive spectrum of travel-related solutions. As a booking intermediary, it facilitates hotel accommodations and air ticket purchases, complementing these with access to train, long-distance bus, and ferry tickets. The firm enhances the travel experience with various value-added services, including a range of travel insurance products (covering aspects like flight delays, accidents, and baggage loss), along with conveniences such as ticket delivery, online check-in, seat selection, expedited security, real-time flight tracking, and airport VIP lounge access. Catering to leisure travelers, Trip.com Group curates diverse packaged tour products, from organized group excursions and semi-private trips to fully customized itineraries. These packages incorporate various transportation options, including air and cruise travel, as well as bus and car rental services. Furthermore, its in-destination offerings are extensive, providing local transportation, activity and attraction ticket
Consumer Cyclical · Travel Services · NASDAQ · Profile: Financial Modeling Prep
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