Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR)
Overview · Option chain · Volatility · Expected-move history · Earnings
Cboe delayed options data · as of 06:36 UTC · Figures derived from the full chain (2,212 contracts, 17 expirations) · IV own-history percentile appears after 60 recorded days (3 so far)
Expected move — Sep 18, 2026 (15 days)
Methodology →Read from option prices: the at-the-money straddle costs this much, so the market is pricing a move of about that size in either direction by this date. It is an estimate of movement, not a prediction of direction.
Options are pricing a move of about ±7.8% (range 156.72–183.27) by Sep 18, 2026. ATM straddle: 13.28 @ strike 170 · ATM IV: 46.7%.
Probability distribution
Model & assumptions →The curve shows where a lognormal model, fed with current implied volatility, puts the range of outcomes at this expiration. Shaded: the expected-move band.
| Level | vs price | P(above)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(below) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 153.00 | -10% | 85.7% | 14.3% |
| 161.50 | -5% | 68.9% | 31.1% |
| 170.00 | +0% | 48.1% | 51.9% |
| 178.50 | +5% | 28.7% | 71.3% |
| 187.00 | +10% | 14.6% | 85.4% |
Model-estimated probabilities of finishing above/below each level at expiration — estimates under stated assumptions, not predictions.
Probability explorer
Drag the slider to any level and see the model-estimated chance the stock finishes above or below it at the selected expiration.
Horizon: Sep 18, 2026 · lognormal model, zero drift — an estimate, not a prediction. Assumptions
Expirations
Open the chain →| Expires | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | Implied move | ATM IV | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 04, 2026 | 1 | ±3.4% | 57.0% | 273.1K |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 8 | ±5.8% | 46.2% | 103.7K |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 15 | ±7.8% | 46.7% | 481.0K |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 22 | ±9.3% | 46.6% | 40.1K |
| Oct 02, 2026 | 29 | ±10.6% | 46.5% | 18.0K |
| Oct 09, 2026 | 36 | ±11.9% | 46.6% | 2,289 |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 43 | ±12.9% | 46.8% | 224.4K |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 78 | ±20.4% | 55.2% | 211.9K |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 106 | ±22.9% | 53.3% | 448.7K |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 134 | ±25.2% | 52.4% | 650.3K |
| Feb 19, 2027 | 169 | ±29.5% | 54.6% | 43.0K |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 197 | ±31.6% | 54.4% | 151.7K |
Open interest by strike — Sep 18
Where option positions are concentrated. Teal bars are calls, red bars are puts; the dashed line is the current price.
Largest open-interest concentrations (all expirations ≤ 60 days): 200 C · 49.7K190 C · 45.8K100 P · 35.5K120 P · 32.5K170 C · 28.8K
IV term structure
Volatility page →At-the-money implied volatility for each expiration. A hump around a date often marks a scheduled event the market is pricing.
When does open interest expire?
Implied vs realized volatility
HV from our stored daily closes (annualized); IV30 interpolated from the chain. Method
Price, last 60 sessions
Track record
Full history →Every trading day we record what the options market is pricing for each expiration — before the outcome is known. Once expirations start resolving, this section compares expected versus actual, and the record is never rewritten. Recording since Aug 31, 2026.
Past earnings reactions
Avg |reaction| 16.7% · median 15.8% (21 reports) — two-session close-to-close window; definition
About Palantir Technologies Inc.
Palantir Technologies Inc. engineers and deploys advanced software platforms primarily for the intelligence community, supporting counterterrorism investigations and operations across the United States, the United Kingdom, and internationally. One such product is Palantir Gotham, a sophisticated software system that enables users to uncover hidden patterns within diverse datasets, from signals intelligence to confidential informant reports. Gotham also facilitates the seamless handover between analysts and operational personnel, helping operators strategize and execute real-world responses to threats pinpointed within the platform. The company also offers Palantir Foundry, a platform that revolutionizes organizational operations by providing a central data operating system, allowing individual users to integrate and analyze their essential data in one cohesive environment. Additionally, Palantir provides Apollo, a software solution for delivering applications and updates across an enterprise, enabling clients to deploy their software in virtually any setting. Its Palantir Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) offers unified access to open-source, self-hosted, and commercial large
Technology · Software - Infrastructure · NASDAQ · Profile: Financial Modeling Prep
PLTR news
All news →Why Palantir’s stock is suffering its worst slump since February
After a strong postearnings rally in August, Palantir’s rich valuation multiple is under pressure once again.
MarketWatch · Sep 02, 19:31 UTC ↗Related securities — Technology
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