NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)
Overview · Option chain · Volatility · Expected-move history · Earnings
Cboe delayed options data · as of 12:39 UTC · Figures derived from the full chain (4,182 contracts, 25 expirations) · IV own-history percentile appears after 60 recorded days (28 so far)
Expected move · Nov 20, 2026 (32 days)
Methodology →Read from option prices: the at-the-money straddle costs this much, so the market is pricing a move of about that size in either direction by this date. It is an estimate of movement, not a prediction of direction.
Options are pricing a move of about ±9.5% (range 197.40–239.00) by Nov 20, 2026. ATM straddle: 20.80 @ strike 217.5 · ATM IV: 40.1%.
Probability distribution
Model & assumptions →The curve shows where a lognormal model, fed with current implied volatility, puts the range of outcomes at this expiration. Shaded: the expected-move band.
| Level | vs price | P(above)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(below) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 196.38 | -10% | 79.7% | 20.3% |
| 207.29 | -5% | 64.6% | 35.4% |
| 218.20 | +0% | 47.6% | 52.4% |
| 229.11 | +5% | 31.9% | 68.1% |
| 240.02 | +10% | 19.4% | 80.6% |
Model-estimated probabilities of finishing above/below each level at expiration: estimates under stated assumptions, not predictions.
Probability explorer
Drag the slider to any level and see the model-estimated chance the stock finishes above or below it at the selected expiration.
Horizon: Nov 20, 2026 · lognormal model with zero drift: an estimate, not a prediction. Assumptions
Expirations
Open the chain →| Expires | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | Implied move | ATM IV | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19, 2026 | 0 | ±2.1% | 87.2% | 180.7K |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 2 | ±4.6% | 71.8% | 103.6K |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 4 | ±3.6% | 41.6% | 697.0K |
| Oct 26, 2026 | 7 | ±4.7% | 41.3% | 34.5K |
| Oct 28, 2026 | 9 | ±4.8% | 37.9% | 15.0K |
| Oct 30, 2026 | 11 | ±5.1% | 35.9% | 311.8K |
| Nov 02, 2026 | 14 | ±5.5% | 34.7% | 0 |
| Nov 06, 2026 | 18 | ±6.6% | 36.6% | 158.5K |
| Nov 13, 2026 | 25 | ±7.4% | 35.1% | 128.1K |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 32 | ±9.5% | 40.1% | 1.40M |
| Nov 27, 2026 | 39 | ±10.0% | 38.1% | 32.0K |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 60 | ±12.2% | 37.4% | 2.67M |
Open interest by strike · Nov 20
Where option positions are concentrated. Teal bars are calls, red bars are puts; the dashed line is the current price.
Largest open-interest concentrations (all expirations ≤ 60 days): 230 C · 240.0K240 C · 203.6K200 P · 176.9K220 C · 167.2K250 C · 160.7K
IV term structure
Volatility page →At-the-money implied volatility for each expiration. A hump around a date often marks a scheduled event the market is pricing.
When does open interest expire?
Implied vs realized volatility
HV from our stored daily closes (annualized); IV30 interpolated from the chain. Method
Price, last 60 sessions
Daily closes; Financial Modeling Prep.
Track record
Full history →Of 192 recorded snapshot-versus-outcome comparisons so far, the close landed inside the expected range 60.4% of the time.
Past earnings reactions
Avg |reaction| 6.2% · median 4.9% (21 reports). Two-session close-to-close window; definition
About NVIDIA Corporation
NVIDIA Corporation stands as a prominent provider of advanced graphics, computational, and networking solutions, operating across the United States, Taiwan, China, and numerous international markets. Its Graphics division encompasses GeForce GPUs, central to PC gaming and personal computing experiences, along with the GeForce NOW cloud gaming service and its supporting infrastructure, as well as dedicated solutions for various gaming platforms. For professional visualization, it provides Quadro and NVIDIA RTX GPUs for enterprise workstations, further offering vGPU software designed for cloud-centric visual and virtual computing, automotive platforms for in-vehicle infotainment, and the Omniverse software suite, facilitating 3D design and virtual world creation. The Compute & Networking segment is a cornerstone for AI, high-performance computing (HPC), and accelerated data center platforms. It integrates Mellanox networking and interconnect solutions, delivers automotive AI Cockpit technologies, fosters autonomous driving development through strategic agreements, and offers comprehensive autonomous vehicle solutions. This segment also manufactures cryptocurrency mining processors, s
Technology · Semiconductors · NASDAQ · Profile: Financial Modeling Prep
NVDA news
All news →I watched Nvidia's Jensen Huang work the room in London. He brought big checks — and a blunt message
Nvidia has a near monopoly over the most powerful AI chips and Huang courts tech execs and world leaders with ease.
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