MP Materials Corp. (MP)
Ikhtisar · Rantai opsi · Volatilitas · Riwayat pergerakan yang diharapkan · Laba
Cboe delayed options data · per 09:39 UTC · Angka yang diturunkan dari rantai opsi penuh (906 kontrak, 16 kedaluwarsa) · Persentil riwayat IV sendiri muncul setelah 60 hari pencatatan (28 sejauh ini)
Pergerakan yang diharapkan · Nov 20, 2026 (32 hari)
Metodologi →Dibaca dari harga opsi: straddle at-the-money berharga sebesar ini, sehingga pasar memperkirakan pergerakan sekitar sebesar itu ke salah satu arah pada tanggal ini. Ini adalah estimasi besarnya pergerakan, bukan prediksi arahnya.
Opsi memperkirakan pergerakan sekitar ±15.9% (rentang 33.69–46.45) oleh Nov 20, 2026. ATM straddle: 6.38 @ strike 40 · ATM IV: 64.4%.
Distribusi probabilitas
Model & asumsi →Kurva ini menunjukkan kisaran hasil yang diperkirakan oleh model lognormal — yang menggunakan implied volatility saat ini — pada ekspirasi ini. Bagian yang diarsir: pita pergerakan yang diperkirakan.
| Level | vs harga | P(di atas)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(di bawah) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36.06 | -10% | 67.6% | 32.4% |
| 38.07 | -5% | 56.9% | 43.1% |
| 40.07 | +0% | 46.2% | 53.8% |
| 42.07 | +5% | 36.3% | 63.7% |
| 44.08 | +10% | 27.6% | 72.4% |
Probabilitas yang diestimasi model untuk harga berakhir di atas/di bawah setiap level saat kedaluwarsa: estimasi berdasarkan asumsi tertentu, bukan prediksi.
Penjelajah probabilitas
Geser slider ke level mana pun dan lihat perkiraan peluang dari model bahwa saham akan berakhir di atas atau di bawah level tersebut pada expirasi yang dipilih.
Horizon: Nov 20, 2026 · Model lognormal dengan zero drift: estimasi, bukan prediksi. Asumsi
Expirasi
Buka rantai opsi →| Kedaluwarsa | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | Implied move | ATM IV | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | 4 | ±6.6% | 59.8% | 9,117 |
| Oct 30, 2026 | 11 | ±9.5% | 60.3% | 11.6K |
| Nov 06, 2026 | 18 | ±13.2% | 68.8% | 8,237 |
| Nov 13, 2026 | 25 | ±15.0% | 67.8% | 3,583 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 32 | ±15.9% | 64.4% | 16.8K |
| Nov 27, 2026 | 39 | ±16.3% | 60.3% | 603 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 60 | ±19.8% | 60.0% | 74.6K |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 88 | ±23.3% | 58.7% | 160.4K |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 151 | ±29.8% | 57.8% | 35.0K |
Open interest per strike · Nov 20
Tempat posisi opsi terkonsentrasi. Batang teal adalah call, batang merah adalah put; garis putus-putus adalah harga saat ini.
Konsentrasi open interest terbesar (semua kedaluwarsa ≤ 60 hari): 50 C · 16.1K60 C · 9,87855 C · 9,07145 P · 7,11835 P · 6,411
Struktur tenor IV
Halaman volatilitas →Implied volatility at-the-money untuk setiap tanggal kedaluwarsa. Tonjolan di sekitar suatu tanggal sering menandai acara terjadwal yang sedang dihargai oleh pasar.
Kapan open interest kedaluwarsa?
Implied vs volatilitas terealisasi
HV dari penutupan harian tersimpan kami (disetahunkan); IV30 diinterpolasi dari rantai opsi. Metode
Harga, 60 sesi terakhir
Penutupan harian; Financial Modeling Prep.
Rekam jejak
Riwayat lengkap →Dari 93 perbandingan snapshot-versus-hasil yang direkam sejauh ini, penutupan berada di dalam kisaran yang diperkirakan 78.5% dari waktu ke waktu.
Reaksi pendapatan masa lalu
Rata-rata |reaksi| 6.7% · median 6.7% (20 laporan). Jendela waktu dua sesi penutupan ke penutupan; definisi
Tentang MP Materials Corp.
MP Materials Corp. manages and operates facilities dedicated to the extraction and refinement of rare earth elements. The company's primary asset is the Mountain Pass Rare Earth mine, a key operation situated within the Western Hemisphere. MP Materials holds comprehensive mineral rights for this significant deposit and its surrounding areas, alongside proprietary intellectual property essential for the ongoing processing and technological development of rare earth minerals. Its product offerings include critical elements such as cerium, lanthanum, neodymium, praseodymium, and samarium. Established in 2017, the company is headquartered in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Material Dasar · Industrial Materials · NYSE · Profil: Financial Modeling Prep
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CLF · IV 73.7%AA · IV 47.4%FCX · IV 47.2%NEM · IV 40.8%VALE · IV 37.6%ALB · IV 54.1%