Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV)
Overview · Option chain · Volatility · Expected-move history · Earnings
Cboe delayed options data · as of 15:40 UTC · Figures derived from the full chain (694 contracts, 13 expirations) · IV own-history percentile appears after 60 recorded days (28 so far)
Expected move · Nov 20, 2026 (32 days)
Methodology →Read from option prices: the at-the-money straddle costs this much, so the market is pricing a move of about that size in either direction by this date. It is an estimate of movement, not a prediction of direction.
Options are pricing a move of about ±10.3% (range 35.36–43.51) by Nov 20, 2026. ATM straddle: 4.08 @ strike 39.5 · ATM IV: 43.5%.
Probability distribution
Model & assumptions →The curve shows where a lognormal model, fed with current implied volatility, puts the range of outcomes at this expiration. Shaded: the expected-move band.
| Level | vs price | P(above)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(below) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35.49 | -10% | 77.5% | 22.5% |
| 37.46 | -5% | 63.1% | 36.9% |
| 39.44 | +0% | 47.4% | 52.6% |
| 41.41 | +5% | 32.8% | 67.2% |
| 43.38 | +10% | 21.0% | 79.0% |
Model-estimated probabilities of finishing above/below each level at expiration: estimates under stated assumptions, not predictions.
Probability explorer
Drag the slider to any level and see the model-estimated chance the stock finishes above or below it at the selected expiration.
Horizon: Nov 20, 2026 · lognormal model with zero drift: an estimate, not a prediction. Assumptions
Expirations
Open the chain →| Expires | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | Implied move | ATM IV | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | 4 | ±6.2% | 71.7% | 11.2K |
| Oct 30, 2026 | 11 | ±7.5% | 53.8% | 2,094 |
| Nov 06, 2026 | 18 | ±10.2% | 56.8% | 1,212 |
| Nov 13, 2026 | 25 | ±9.7% | 46.3% | 501 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 32 | ±10.3% | 43.5% | 19.2K |
| Nov 27, 2026 | 39 | ±11.1% | 42.5% | 72 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 60 | ±13.1% | 39.9% | 25.2K |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 88 | ±15.6% | 39.5% | 60.5K |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 151 | ±20.5% | 39.9% | 24.8K |
Open interest by strike · Nov 20
Where option positions are concentrated. Teal bars are calls, red bars are puts; the dashed line is the current price.
Largest open-interest concentrations (all expirations ≤ 60 days): 40 P · 9,60247.5 C · 7,08845 C · 5,17450 C · 3,01842.5 C · 2,983
IV term structure
Volatility page →At-the-money implied volatility for each expiration. A hump around a date often marks a scheduled event the market is pricing.
When does open interest expire?
Implied vs realized volatility
HV from our stored daily closes (annualized); IV30 interpolated from the chain. Method
Price, last 60 sessions
Daily closes; Financial Modeling Prep.
Track record
Full history →Of 93 recorded snapshot-versus-outcome comparisons so far, the close landed inside the expected range 59.1% of the time.
Past earnings reactions
Avg |reaction| 5.8% · median 5.4% (20 reports). Two-session close-to-close window; definition
About Southwest Airlines Co.
Southwest Airlines Co. functions as a passenger airline, offering scheduled air travel services predominantly across the United States and to select neighboring international markets. As of December 31, 2021, the company maintained a consistent fleet of 728 Boeing 737 aircraft. Its extensive route network served 121 different locations, spanning 42 U.S. states, the District of Columbia, and the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, along with 10 international countries close by. These international destinations include Mexico, Jamaica, the Bahamas, Aruba, the Dominican Republic, Costa Rica, Belize, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and Turks and Caicos. To enhance the passenger journey, Southwest provides in-flight entertainment and internet access on its Wi-Fi-enabled planes. The airline also runs the Rapid Rewards loyalty program, enabling members to accumulate points proportional to the money spent on Southwest's base fares. For customer convenience in travel planning, the company offers a range of digital tools, including its official websites and mobile applications, as well as SWABIZ, a dedicated online booking platform for business clients. Additional services available include EarlyBird Che
Industrials · Airlines, Airports & Air Services · NYSE · Profile: Financial Modeling Prep
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