The Hershey Company (HSY)
Ikhtisar · Rantai opsi · Volatilitas · Riwayat pergerakan yang diharapkan · Laba
Cboe delayed options data · per 15:35 UTC · Angka yang diturunkan dari rantai opsi penuh (1,070 kontrak, 15 kedaluwarsa) · Persentil riwayat IV sendiri muncul setelah 60 hari pencatatan (3 sejauh ini)
Pergerakan yang diharapkan — Sep 18, 2026 (15 hari)
Metodologi →Dibaca dari harga opsi: straddle at-the-money berharga sebesar ini, sehingga pasar memperkirakan pergerakan sekitar sebesar itu ke salah satu arah pada tanggal ini. Ini adalah estimasi besarnya pergerakan, bukan prediksi arahnya.
Opsi memperkirakan pergerakan sekitar ±4.4% (rentang 168.20–183.80) oleh Sep 18, 2026. ATM straddle: 7.80 @ strike 175 · ATM IV: 26.1%.
Distribusi probabilitas
Model & asumsi →Kurva ini menunjukkan kisaran hasil yang diperkirakan oleh model lognormal — yang menggunakan implied volatility saat ini — pada ekspirasi ini. Bagian yang diarsir: pita pergerakan yang diperkirakan.
| Level | vs harga | P(di atas)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(di bawah) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 158.40 | -10% | 97.5% | 2.5% |
| 167.20 | -5% | 82.7% | 17.3% |
| 176.00 | +0% | 48.9% | 51.1% |
| 184.80 | +5% | 17.2% | 82.8% |
| 193.60 | +10% | 3.4% | 96.6% |
Probabilitas estimasi model untuk harga berakhir di atas/di bawah setiap level pada saat kedaluwarsa — estimasi berdasarkan asumsi yang dinyatakan, bukan prediksi.
Penjelajah probabilitas
Geser slider ke level mana pun dan lihat perkiraan peluang dari model bahwa saham akan berakhir di atas atau di bawah level tersebut pada expirasi yang dipilih.
Horizon: Sep 18, 2026 · model lognormal, zero drift — sebuah estimasi, bukan prediksi. Asumsi
Expirasi
Buka rantai opsi →| Kedaluwarsa | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | Implied move | ATM IV | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 04, 2026 | 1 | ±2.2% | 29.6% | 991 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 8 | ±3.4% | 25.0% | 722 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 15 | ±4.4% | 26.1% | 8,627 |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 22 | ±5.4% | 26.0% | 449 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | 29 | ±5.9% | 24.4% | 245 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | 36 | ±6.7% | 25.8% | 21 |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 43 | ±7.4% | 26.3% | 1,191 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 78 | ±10.9% | 28.6% | 4,191 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 106 | ±12.2% | 28.0% | 2,661 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 134 | ±13.4% | 27.6% | 6,930 |
| Feb 19, 2027 | 169 | ±15.4% | 28.0% | 326 |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 197 | ±16.4% | 28.0% | 4,216 |
Open interest per strike — Sep 18
Tempat posisi opsi terkonsentrasi. Batang teal adalah call, batang merah adalah put; garis putus-putus adalah harga saat ini.
Konsentrasi open interest terbesar (semua kedaluwarsa ≤ 60 hari): 180 P · 1,464190 C · 786185 C · 766200 C · 745165 P · 654
Struktur tenor IV
Halaman volatilitas →Implied volatility at-the-money untuk setiap tanggal kedaluwarsa. Tonjolan di sekitar suatu tanggal sering menandai acara terjadwal yang sedang dihargai oleh pasar.
Kapan open interest kedaluwarsa?
Implied vs realized volatility
HV dari penutupan harian tersimpan kami (disetahunkan); IV30 diinterpolasi dari rantai opsi. Metode
Harga, 60 sesi terakhir
Rekam jejak
Riwayat lengkap →Setiap hari perdagangan kami mencatat apa yang diperhitungkan pasar opsi untuk setiap expirasi — sebelum hasilnya diketahui. Begitu expirasi mulai terselesaikan, bagian ini membandingkan yang diharapkan versus yang aktual, dan catatan tidak pernah ditulis ulang. Pencatatan sejak 31 Agu 2026.
Reaksi pendapatan masa lalu
Rata-rata |reaksi| 3.2% · median 2.3% (20 laporan) — jendela tutup-ke-tutup dua sesi; definisi
Tentang The Hershey Company
The Hershey Company, operating with its various subsidiaries, serves as a key manufacturer and distributor of both sweet confections and general household pantry items. Its market reach extends across the United States and globally. The enterprise strategically divides its operations into three main business segments: North America Confectionery, North America Salty Snacks, and an International division. Its extensive product catalog features a wide array of offerings. This includes various chocolate and non-chocolate candies, as well as refreshing chewing gums and mints. Beyond traditional treats, Hershey also supplies pantry essentials such as baking ingredients, dessert toppings, a range of beverages, and sundae syrups. Furthermore, their snack collection encompasses diverse items like spreads, meat snacks, various bars and snack bites, popcorn, and protein bars. The company markets its broad product line under numerous iconic brand names. Its extensive brand portfolio includes household names such as Hershey's, Reese's, Kisses, Jolly Rancher, Kit Kat, Twizzlers, York, and Ice Breakers, alongside other popular confectionery brands like Almond Joy, Cadbury, Heath, Payday, Rolo, a
Konsumer Defensif · Food Confectioners · NYSE · Profil: Financial Modeling Prep
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WMT · IV 21.9%KHC · IV 29.4%COST · IV 24.3%KO · IV 17.5%PEP · IV 20.7%DG · IV 33.4%