HSY historial de movimiento esperado The Hershey Company
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas121
Cierre dentro del rango64%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado64%
Movimiento esperado promedio±4.2%
Movimiento |real| promedio3.6%
Error medio abs.1.8pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 167.00 | ±2.3% | 163.22–170.78 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 170.83 | ±2.8% | 166.03–175.63 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 164.25 | ±3.3% | 158.88–169.62 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 163.05 | ±3.2% | 157.85–168.25 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 162.74 | ±3.6% | 156.87–168.62 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 162.54 | ±4.2% | 155.72–169.37 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 160.39 | ±4.1% | 153.89–166.89 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 160.80 | ±4.3% | 153.88–167.72 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 161.01 | ±4.3% | 154.03–167.99 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 160.19 | ±4.5% | 152.94–167.44 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 159.56 | ±4.8% | 151.96–167.16 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 168.46 | ±6.0% | 158.41–178.51 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 169.12 | ±5.9% | 159.17–179.07 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 169.79 | ±6.1% | 159.49–180.09 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 168.33 | ±6.4% | 157.53–179.13 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 169.21 | ±6.5% | 158.16–180.25 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 172.04 | ±6.9% | 160.09–183.99 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 173.32 | ±7.0% | 161.27–185.37 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 173.32 | ±7.0% | 161.27–185.37 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 173.93 | ±7.2% | 161.43–186.43 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 172.19 | ±7.3% | 159.64–184.74 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 172.19 | ±7.3% | 159.64–184.74 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 173.15 | ±7.6% | 160.00–186.30 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 173.15 | ±7.6% | 160.00–186.30 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 175.06 | ±7.6% | 161.76–188.36 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 167.00 | ±4.4% | 159.68–174.32 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 170.83 | ±5.3% | 161.73–179.93 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 164.25 | ±5.4% | 155.30–173.20 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 163.05 | ±5.6% | 153.95–172.15 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 30 | 21 | 162.74 | ±6.0% | 152.94–172.54 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.8% | +0.0% | dentro | 170.83 → 170.83 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.9% | +4.0% | fuera | 164.25 → 170.83 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.1% | +4.8% | fuera | 163.05 → 170.83 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.8% | +5.0% | fuera | 162.74 → 170.83 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.0% | +5.1% | fuera | 162.54 → 170.83 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.1% | +6.5% | fuera | 160.39 → 170.83 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.3% | +6.2% | fuera | 160.80 → 170.83 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.5% | +6.1% | fuera | 161.01 → 170.83 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.8% | +6.6% | fuera | 160.19 → 170.83 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.9% | +7.1% | fuera | 159.56 → 170.83 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.2% | +1.4% | dentro | 168.46 → 170.83 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.1% | +1.0% | dentro | 169.12 → 170.83 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.3% | +0.6% | dentro | 169.79 → 170.83 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.6% | +1.5% | dentro | 168.33 → 170.83 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.7% | +1.0% | dentro | 169.21 → 170.83 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.2% | -0.7% | dentro | 172.04 → 170.83 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.3% | -1.4% | dentro | 173.32 → 170.83 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.3% | -1.4% | dentro | 173.32 → 170.83 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.4% | -1.8% | dentro | 173.93 → 170.83 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.9% | -0.8% | dentro | 172.19 → 170.83 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.9% | -0.8% | dentro | 172.19 → 170.83 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.8% | -1.3% | dentro | 173.15 → 170.83 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.8% | -1.3% | dentro | 173.15 → 170.83 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.9% | -2.4% | dentro | 175.06 → 170.83 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.4% | -2.9% | dentro | 176.00 → 170.83 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.4% | -2.9% | dentro | 176.00 → 170.83 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.3% | -3.0% | dentro | 176.17 → 170.83 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.5% | -3.0% | dentro | 176.10 → 170.83 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.7% | +0.0% | dentro | 162.74 → 162.74 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.2% | +0.1% | dentro | 162.54 → 162.74 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.8% | +1.5% | dentro | 160.39 → 162.74 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.1% | +1.2% | dentro | 160.80 → 162.74 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.3% | +1.1% | dentro | 161.01 → 162.74 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.4% | +1.6% | dentro | 160.19 → 162.74 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.1% | +2.0% | dentro | 159.56 → 162.74 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.5% | -3.4% | dentro | 168.46 → 162.74 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.6% | -3.8% | dentro | 169.12 → 162.74 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.7% | -4.2% | dentro | 169.79 → 162.74 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.0% | -3.3% | dentro | 168.33 → 162.74 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.9% | -3.8% | dentro | 169.21 → 162.74 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.2% | -5.4% | fuera | 172.04 → 162.74 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.6% | -6.1% | fuera | 173.32 → 162.74 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.6% | -6.1% | fuera | 173.32 → 162.74 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.7% | -6.4% | fuera | 173.93 → 162.74 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.1% | -5.5% | dentro | 172.19 → 162.74 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.1% | -5.5% | dentro | 172.19 → 162.74 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.2% | -6.0% | dentro | 173.15 → 162.74 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.2% | -6.0% | dentro | 173.15 → 162.74 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.2% | -7.0% | fuera | 175.06 → 162.74 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.7% | -7.5% | fuera | 176.00 → 162.74 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.7% | -7.5% | fuera | 176.00 → 162.74 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.6% | -7.6% | fuera | 176.17 → 162.74 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.9% | -7.6% | fuera | 176.10 → 162.74 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.5% | +0.0% | dentro | 160.19 → 160.19 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.4% | +0.4% | dentro | 159.56 → 160.19 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.5% | -4.9% | fuera | 168.46 → 160.19 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.5% | -5.3% | fuera | 169.12 → 160.19 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.9% | -5.7% | fuera | 169.79 → 160.19 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.2% | -4.8% | fuera | 168.33 → 160.19 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.1% | -5.3% | fuera | 169.21 → 160.19 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.