ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK · ETF)
Overview · Option chain · Volatility · Expected-move history
Cboe delayed options data · as of 06:34 UTC · Figures derived from the full chain (1,214 contracts, 12 expirations) · IV own-history percentile appears after 60 recorded days (29 so far)
Expected move · Nov 20, 2026 (31 days)
Methodology →Read from option prices: the at-the-money straddle costs this much, so the market is pricing a move of about that size in either direction by this date. It is an estimate of movement, not a prediction of direction.
Options are pricing a move of about ±9.1% (range 74.86–89.76) by Nov 20, 2026. ATM straddle: 7.45 @ strike 82.5 · ATM IV: 38.2%.
Probability distribution
Model & assumptions →The curve shows where a lognormal model, fed with current implied volatility, puts the range of outcomes at this expiration. Shaded: the expected-move band.
| Level | vs price | P(above)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(below) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 74.08 | -10% | 81.3% | 18.7% |
| 78.19 | -5% | 65.7% | 34.3% |
| 82.31 | +0% | 47.8% | 52.2% |
| 86.43 | +5% | 31.1% | 68.9% |
| 90.54 | +10% | 18.1% | 81.9% |
Model-estimated probabilities of finishing above/below each level at expiration: estimates under stated assumptions, not predictions.
Probability explorer
Drag the slider to any level and see the model-estimated chance the stock finishes above or below it at the selected expiration.
Horizon: Nov 20, 2026 · lognormal model with zero drift: an estimate, not a prediction. Assumptions
Expirations
Open the chain →| Expires | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | Implied move | ATM IV | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | 3 | ±3.4% | 40.1% | 27.5K |
| Oct 30, 2026 | 10 | ±5.6% | 40.2% | 14.9K |
| Nov 06, 2026 | 17 | ±7.2% | 40.3% | 3,185 |
| Nov 13, 2026 | 24 | ±8.4% | 39.9% | 1,960 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 31 | ±9.1% | 38.2% | 103.7K |
| Nov 27, 2026 | 38 | ±9.9% | 38.1% | 454 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 59 | ±12.3% | 38.2% | 69.7K |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 87 | ±14.7% | 37.8% | 248.6K |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 150 | ±19.0% | 37.3% | 32.8K |
Open interest by strike · Nov 20
Where option positions are concentrated. Teal bars are calls, red bars are puts; the dashed line is the current price.
Largest open-interest concentrations (all expirations ≤ 60 days): 80 P · 31.2K70 P · 15.0K83 P · 11.6K65 P · 11.4K81 P · 9,806
IV term structure
Volatility page →At-the-money implied volatility for each expiration. A hump around a date often marks a scheduled event the market is pricing.
When does open interest expire?
Implied vs realized volatility
HV from our stored daily closes (annualized); IV30 interpolated from the chain. Method
Price, last 60 sessions
Daily closes; Financial Modeling Prep.
Track record
Full history →Of 121 recorded snapshot-versus-outcome comparisons so far, the close landed inside the expected range 68.6% of the time.
About ARK Innovation ETF
The ARKK Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) is actively managed, with the primary objective of achieving substantial long-term capital growth. Under typical market conditions, it strategically invests at least 65% of its total assets in equity securities from both domestic and foreign companies that are integral to its central investment theme of disruptive innovation.
ETF · Asset Management · CBOE · Profile: Financial Modeling Prep
Related securities · ETF
SPY · IV 14.2%QQQ · IV 21.6%EWZ · IV 61.4%IWM · IV 19.8%TLT · IV 13.7%TQQQ · IV 64.8%