Alcoa Corporation (AA)
Overview · Option chain · Volatility · Expected-move history · Earnings
Cboe delayed options data · as of 21:50 UTC · Figures derived from the full chain (776 contracts, 14 expirations) · IV own-history percentile appears after 60 recorded days (29 so far)
Expected move · Nov 20, 2026 (32 days)
Methodology →Read from option prices: the at-the-money straddle costs this much, so the market is pricing a move of about that size in either direction by this date. It is an estimate of movement, not a prediction of direction.
Options are pricing a move of about ±10.6% (range 37.27–46.07) by Nov 20, 2026. ATM straddle: 4.40 @ strike 41.5 · ATM IV: 44.7%.
Probability distribution
Model & assumptions →The curve shows where a lognormal model, fed with current implied volatility, puts the range of outcomes at this expiration. Shaded: the expected-move band.
| Level | vs price | P(above)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(below) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 37.50 | -10% | 76.8% | 23.2% |
| 39.59 | -5% | 62.6% | 37.4% |
| 41.67 | +0% | 47.4% | 52.6% |
| 43.75 | +5% | 33.2% | 66.8% |
| 45.84 | +10% | 21.6% | 78.4% |
Model-estimated probabilities of finishing above/below each level at expiration: estimates under stated assumptions, not predictions.
Probability explorer
Drag the slider to any level and see the model-estimated chance the stock finishes above or below it at the selected expiration.
Horizon: Nov 20, 2026 · lognormal model with zero drift: an estimate, not a prediction. Assumptions
Expirations
Open the chain →| Expires | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | Implied move | ATM IV | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | 4 | ±4.6% | 55.3% | 12.4K |
| Oct 30, 2026 | 11 | ±6.7% | 48.5% | 7,460 |
| Nov 06, 2026 | 18 | ±8.4% | 47.2% | 2,210 |
| Nov 13, 2026 | 25 | ±10.2% | 48.4% | 1,843 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 32 | ±10.6% | 44.7% | 24.6K |
| Nov 27, 2026 | 39 | ±11.7% | 44.7% | 519 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 60 | ±14.3% | 43.9% | 40.5K |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 88 | ±17.7% | 45.0% | 64.2K |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 151 | ±23.3% | 45.8% | 18.2K |
| Apr 16, 2027 | 179 | ±26.6% | 48.4% | 2,984 |
Open interest by strike · Nov 20
Where option positions are concentrated. Teal bars are calls, red bars are puts; the dashed line is the current price.
Largest open-interest concentrations (all expirations ≤ 60 days): 45 C · 17.8K50 C · 10.9K45 P · 4,76040 P · 4,08455 C · 3,385
IV term structure
Volatility page →At-the-money implied volatility for each expiration. A hump around a date often marks a scheduled event the market is pricing.
When does open interest expire?
Implied vs realized volatility
HV from our stored daily closes (annualized); IV30 interpolated from the chain. Method
Price, last 60 sessions
Daily closes; Financial Modeling Prep.
Track record
Full history →Of 121 recorded snapshot-versus-outcome comparisons so far, the close landed inside the expected range 39.7% of the time.
Past earnings reactions
Avg |reaction| 6.1% · median 4.6% (21 reports). Two-session close-to-close window; definition
About Alcoa Corporation
Alcoa Corporation stands as a global industrial leader, primarily focused on the production and sale of bauxite, alumina, and aluminum products. Its extensive operations span multiple continents, including North America (United States, Canada), Europe (Spain, Iceland, Norway), South America (Brazil), and Australia, along with other international markets. The company's activities are strategically divided into three principal segments: Bauxite, Alumina, and Aluminum. Alcoa initiates its process with bauxite mining. This raw material is then refined into alumina, which is subsequently sold to customers for conversion into various industrial chemical products. Additionally, the company is involved in aluminum smelting and casting, supplying primary aluminum in forms like alloy or value-added ingots. These aluminum products cater to a diverse range of industries, including transportation, building and construction, packaging, wire manufacturing, and other industrial applications. Beyond its core metals business, Alcoa also operates hydroelectric power generation facilities. These plants generate and sell electricity into the wholesale market, serving a wide array of clients, from trade
Basic Materials · Aluminum · NYSE · Profile: Financial Modeling Prep
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