State Street SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT · ETF)
Overview · Option chain · Volatility · Expected-move history
Cboe delayed options data · as of 15:47 UTC · Figures derived from the full chain (1,016 contracts, 13 expirations) · IV own-history percentile appears after 60 recorded days (28 so far)
Expected move · Nov 20, 2026 (32 days)
Methodology →Read from option prices: the at-the-money straddle costs this much, so the market is pricing a move of about that size in either direction by this date. It is an estimate of movement, not a prediction of direction.
Options are pricing a move of about ±5.8% (range 82.18–92.24) by Nov 20, 2026. ATM straddle: 5.03 @ strike 87 · ATM IV: 24.4%.
Probability distribution
Model & assumptions →The curve shows where a lognormal model, fed with current implied volatility, puts the range of outcomes at this expiration. Shaded: the expected-move band.
| Level | vs price | P(above)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(below) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 78.49 | -10% | 92.3% | 7.7% |
| 82.85 | -5% | 75.0% | 25.0% |
| 87.21 | +0% | 48.6% | 51.4% |
| 91.57 | +5% | 23.8% | 76.2% |
| 95.93 | +10% | 8.7% | 91.3% |
Model-estimated probabilities of finishing above/below each level at expiration: estimates under stated assumptions, not predictions.
Probability explorer
Drag the slider to any level and see the model-estimated chance the stock finishes above or below it at the selected expiration.
Horizon: Nov 20, 2026 · lognormal model with zero drift: an estimate, not a prediction. Assumptions
Expirations
Open the chain →| Expires | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | Implied move | ATM IV | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | 4 | ±2.3% | 26.6% | 1,600 |
| Oct 30, 2026 | 11 | ±3.5% | 24.9% | 4,636 |
| Nov 06, 2026 | 18 | ±4.5% | 25.1% | 377 |
| Nov 13, 2026 | 25 | ±5.4% | 25.6% | 221 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 32 | ±5.8% | 24.4% | 10.2K |
| Nov 27, 2026 | 39 | ±6.5% | 24.7% | 134 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 60 | ±8.2% | 25.4% | 20.1K |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 88 | ±9.7% | 24.8% | 52.5K |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 151 | ±12.9% | 25.3% | 8,092 |
Open interest by strike · Nov 20
Where option positions are concentrated. Teal bars are calls, red bars are puts; the dashed line is the current price.
Largest open-interest concentrations (all expirations ≤ 60 days): 85 P · 5,42384 C · 4,88482 P · 2,22380 P · 1,75185 C · 1,685
IV term structure
Volatility page →At-the-money implied volatility for each expiration. A hump around a date often marks a scheduled event the market is pricing.
When does open interest expire?
Implied vs realized volatility
HV from our stored daily closes (annualized); IV30 interpolated from the chain. Method
Price, last 60 sessions
Daily closes; Financial Modeling Prep.
Track record
Full history →Of 93 recorded snapshot-versus-outcome comparisons so far, the close landed inside the expected range 81.7% of the time.
About State Street SPDR S&P Retail ETF
The State Street SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) is designed to replicate, before fees and expenses, the overall investment performance of the S&P Retail Select Industry Index. This fund offers investors focused access to the comprehensive retail segment of the S&P Total Market Index (TMI). It covers a broad spectrum of retail activities, including, but not limited to, Apparel, Automotive, Broadline, Computer & Electronic, Consumer Staples Merchandise, Drug, Food, and Other Specialty Retailers. The ETF achieves its objective by tracking an index that employs a modified equal-weighting methodology, ensuring diversified exposure across large, mid, and small-capitalization companies within the retail sector. This structure enables investors to implement more precise strategic or tactical allocations within retail, offering greater specificity than traditional, broader sector-based investment options.
ETF · Asset Management - Global · AMEX · Profile: Financial Modeling Prep
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