State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLB · ETF)
Overview · Option chain · Volatility · Expected-move history
Cboe delayed options data · as of 00:39 UTC · Figures derived from the full chain (976 contracts, 13 expirations) · IV own-history percentile appears after 60 recorded days (4 so far)
Expected move — Sep 18, 2026 (15 days)
Methodology →Read from option prices: the at-the-money straddle costs this much, so the market is pricing a move of about that size in either direction by this date. It is an estimate of movement, not a prediction of direction.
Options are pricing a move of about ±2.8% (range 51.16–54.11) by Sep 18, 2026. ATM straddle: 1.48 @ strike 52.5 · ATM IV: 17.0%.
Probability distribution
Model & assumptions →The curve shows where a lognormal model, fed with current implied volatility, puts the range of outcomes at this expiration. Shaded: the expected-move band.
| Level | vs price | P(above)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(below) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47.37 | -10% | 99.9% | 0.1% |
| 50.00 | -5% | 92.9% | 7.1% |
| 52.63 | -0% | 49.4% | 50.6% |
| 55.27 | +5% | 7.6% | 92.4% |
| 57.90 | +10% | 0.3% | 99.7% |
Model-estimated probabilities of finishing above/below each level at expiration — estimates under stated assumptions, not predictions.
Probability explorer
Drag the slider to any level and see the model-estimated chance the stock finishes above or below it at the selected expiration.
Horizon: Sep 18, 2026 · lognormal model, zero drift — an estimate, not a prediction. Assumptions
Expirations
Open the chain →| Expires | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | Implied move | ATM IV | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 04, 2026 | 1 | ±1.0% | 21.6% | 4,311 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 8 | ±1.9% | 15.3% | 2,058 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 15 | ±2.8% | 17.0% | 229.2K |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 22 | ±3.4% | 16.6% | 2,353 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | 29 | ±3.8% | 16.9% | 84.9K |
| Oct 09, 2026 | 36 | ±4.3% | 17.0% | 25 |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 43 | ±4.8% | 17.2% | 3,146 |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 50 | ±5.2% | 17.4% | 0 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 106 | ±7.9% | 18.1% | 40.5K |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 134 | ±9.1% | 18.7% | 102.5K |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 197 | ±10.9% | 18.3% | 7,275 |
Open interest by strike — Sep 18
Where option positions are concentrated. Teal bars are calls, red bars are puts; the dashed line is the current price.
Largest open-interest concentrations (all expirations ≤ 60 days): 55 C · 93.4K62.5 C · 89.3K41 P · 46.0K48 P · 38.5K57.5 C · 11.1K
IV term structure
Volatility page →At-the-money implied volatility for each expiration. A hump around a date often marks a scheduled event the market is pricing.
When does open interest expire?
Implied vs realized volatility
HV from our stored daily closes (annualized); IV30 interpolated from the chain. Method
Price, last 60 sessions
Track record
Full history →Every trading day we record what the options market is pricing for each expiration — before the outcome is known. Once expirations start resolving, this section compares expected versus actual, and the record is never rewritten. Recording since Aug 31, 2026.
About State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF
The State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLB) aims to replicate the investment outcomes, including both price appreciation and yield, of the Materials Select Sector Index, prior to accounting for expenses. This underlying index effectively represents the materials segment of the broader S&P 500 Index. The ETF offers focused exposure to companies across key materials industries, including chemicals, metals and mining, paper and forest products, containers and packaging, and construction materials. This precise targeting enables investors to establish either strategic long-term or tactical short-term positions, providing a more granular approach compared to conventional style-based investment strategies.
ETF · Asset Management · AMEX · Profile: Financial Modeling Prep
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