Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (QQQ · ETF)
Overview · Option chain · Volatility · Expected-move history
Cboe delayed options data · as of 12:40 UTC · Figures derived from the full chain (10.9K contracts, 31 expirations) · IV own-history percentile appears after 60 recorded days (28 so far)
Expected move · Nov 20, 2026 (32 days)
Methodology →Read from option prices: the at-the-money straddle costs this much, so the market is pricing a move of about that size in either direction by this date. It is an estimate of movement, not a prediction of direction.
Options are pricing a move of about ±5.0% (range 682.92–755.09) by Nov 20, 2026. ATM straddle: 36.09 @ strike 719 · ATM IV: 21.0%.
Probability distribution
Model & assumptions →The curve shows where a lognormal model, fed with current implied volatility, puts the range of outcomes at this expiration. Shaded: the expected-move band.
| Level | vs price | P(above)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(below) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 647.11 | -10% | 95.2% | 4.8% |
| 683.06 | -5% | 78.7% | 21.3% |
| 719.01 | +0% | 48.8% | 51.2% |
| 754.96 | +5% | 20.7% | 79.3% |
| 790.91 | +10% | 5.9% | 94.1% |
Model-estimated probabilities of finishing above/below each level at expiration: estimates under stated assumptions, not predictions.
Probability explorer
Drag the slider to any level and see the model-estimated chance the stock finishes above or below it at the selected expiration.
Horizon: Nov 20, 2026 · lognormal model with zero drift: an estimate, not a prediction. Assumptions
Expirations
Open the chain →| Expires | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | Implied move | ATM IV | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19, 2026 | 0 | ±0.7% | 29.1% | 477.9K |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 1 | ±1.2% | 24.2% | 205.7K |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 2 | ±1.5% | 23.6% | 114.5K |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 3 | ±1.8% | 23.4% | 73.8K |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 4 | ±2.0% | 23.2% | 603.7K |
| Oct 26, 2026 | 7 | ±2.3% | 20.2% | 54.0K |
| Oct 27, 2026 | 8 | ±2.5% | 20.6% | 38.6K |
| Oct 28, 2026 | 9 | ±2.8% | 22.0% | 17.3K |
| Oct 29, 2026 | 10 | ±3.1% | 22.8% | 28.6K |
| Oct 30, 2026 | 11 | ±3.3% | 23.1% | 958.8K |
| Nov 02, 2026 | 14 | ±3.4% | 21.6% | 0 |
| Nov 06, 2026 | 18 | ±4.0% | 22.5% | 328.3K |
Open interest by strike · Nov 20
Where option positions are concentrated. Teal bars are calls, red bars are puts; the dashed line is the current price.
Largest open-interest concentrations (all expirations ≤ 60 days): 700 P · 314.8K690 P · 248.6K680 P · 176.2K710 P · 159.3K720 P · 150.6K
IV term structure
Volatility page →At-the-money implied volatility for each expiration. A hump around a date often marks a scheduled event the market is pricing.
When does open interest expire?
Implied vs realized volatility
HV from our stored daily closes (annualized); IV30 interpolated from the chain. Method
Price, last 60 sessions
Daily closes; Financial Modeling Prep.
Track record
Full history →Of 308 recorded snapshot-versus-outcome comparisons so far, the close landed inside the expected range 48.4% of the time.
About Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Managed by Invesco, the Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 functions as an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that commenced operations on March 10, 1999. Its design specifically aims to replicate the overall financial performance, encompassing both capital appreciation and dividend income, of the NASDAQ-100 Index.
ETF · Asset Management · NASDAQ · Profile: Financial Modeling Prep
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