Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (QQQ · ETF)
Overview · Option chain · Volatility · Expected-move history
Cboe delayed options data · as of 00:38 UTC · Figures derived from the full chain (10.9K contracts, 32 expirations) · IV own-history percentile appears after 60 recorded days (3 so far)
Expected move — Sep 18, 2026 (16 days)
Methodology →Read from option prices: the at-the-money straddle costs this much, so the market is pricing a move of about that size in either direction by this date. It is an estimate of movement, not a prediction of direction.
Options are pricing a move of about ±2.8% (range 689.62–729.58) by Sep 18, 2026. ATM straddle: 19.98 @ strike 710 · ATM IV: 17.5%.
Probability distribution
Model & assumptions →The curve shows where a lognormal model, fed with current implied volatility, puts the range of outcomes at this expiration. Shaded: the expected-move band.
| Level | vs price | P(above)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(below) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 638.64 | -10% | 99.8% | 0.2% |
| 674.12 | -5% | 91.7% | 8.3% |
| 709.60 | +0% | 49.3% | 50.7% |
| 745.08 | +5% | 8.8% | 91.2% |
| 780.56 | +10% | 0.4% | 99.6% |
Model-estimated probabilities of finishing above/below each level at expiration — estimates under stated assumptions, not predictions.
Probability explorer
Drag the slider to any level and see the model-estimated chance the stock finishes above or below it at the selected expiration.
Horizon: Sep 18, 2026 · lognormal model, zero drift — an estimate, not a prediction. Assumptions
Expirations
Open the chain →| Expires | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | Implied move | ATM IV | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 02, 2026 | 0 | ±0.5% | 105.9% | 279.3K |
| Sep 03, 2026 | 1 | ±0.7% | 17.1% | 157.7K |
| Sep 04, 2026 | 2 | ±1.0% | 17.2% | 476.3K |
| Sep 08, 2026 | 6 | ±1.3% | 12.9% | 81.9K |
| Sep 09, 2026 | 7 | ±1.6% | 14.5% | 40.3K |
| Sep 10, 2026 | 8 | ±1.8% | 15.0% | 18.0K |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 9 | ±2.0% | 16.0% | 355.5K |
| Sep 14, 2026 | 12 | ±2.3% | 16.1% | 7,762 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | 13 | ±2.2% | 14.5% | 5,359 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | 14 | ±2.6% | 16.7% | 0 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 16 | ±2.8% | 17.5% | 2.55M |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 23 | ±3.6% | 17.1% | 219.2K |
Open interest by strike — Sep 18
Where option positions are concentrated. Teal bars are calls, red bars are puts; the dashed line is the current price.
Largest open-interest concentrations (all expirations ≤ 60 days): 700 P · 207.9K690 P · 154.7K680 P · 154.6K660 P · 149.4K750 C · 131.1K
IV term structure
Volatility page →At-the-money implied volatility for each expiration. A hump around a date often marks a scheduled event the market is pricing.
When does open interest expire?
Implied vs realized volatility
HV from our stored daily closes (annualized); IV30 interpolated from the chain. Method
Price, last 60 sessions
Track record
Full history →Of 3 recorded snapshot-versus-outcome comparisons so far, the close landed inside the expected range 66.7% of the time.
About Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Managed by Invesco, the Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 functions as an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that commenced operations on March 10, 1999. Its design specifically aims to replicate the overall financial performance, encompassing both capital appreciation and dividend income, of the NASDAQ-100 Index.
ETF · Asset Management · NASDAQ · Profile: Financial Modeling Prep
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