The Progressive Corporation (PGR)
Ikhtisar · Rantai opsi · Volatilitas · Riwayat pergerakan yang diharapkan · Laba
Cboe delayed options data · per 06:41 UTC · Angka yang diturunkan dari rantai opsi penuh (1,232 kontrak, 15 kedaluwarsa) · Persentil riwayat IV sendiri muncul setelah 60 hari pencatatan (29 sejauh ini)
Pergerakan yang diharapkan · Nov 20, 2026 (31 hari)
Metodologi →Dibaca dari harga opsi: straddle at-the-money berharga sebesar ini, sehingga pasar memperkirakan pergerakan sekitar sebesar itu ke salah satu arah pada tanggal ini. Ini adalah estimasi besarnya pergerakan, bukan prediksi arahnya.
Opsi memperkirakan pergerakan sekitar ±5.7% (rentang 206.56–231.66) oleh Nov 20, 2026. ATM straddle: 12.55 @ strike 220 · ATM IV: 24.1%.
Distribusi probabilitas
Model & asumsi →Kurva ini menunjukkan kisaran hasil yang diperkirakan oleh model lognormal — yang menggunakan implied volatility saat ini — pada ekspirasi ini. Bagian yang diarsir: pita pergerakan yang diperkirakan.
| Level | vs harga | P(di atas)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(di bawah) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 197.20 | -10% | 92.9% | 7.1% |
| 208.15 | -5% | 75.7% | 24.3% |
| 219.11 | +0% | 48.6% | 51.4% |
| 230.07 | +5% | 23.2% | 76.8% |
| 241.02 | +10% | 8.2% | 91.8% |
Probabilitas yang diestimasi model untuk harga berakhir di atas/di bawah setiap level saat kedaluwarsa: estimasi berdasarkan asumsi tertentu, bukan prediksi.
Penjelajah probabilitas
Geser slider ke level mana pun dan lihat perkiraan peluang dari model bahwa saham akan berakhir di atas atau di bawah level tersebut pada expirasi yang dipilih.
Horizon: Nov 20, 2026 · Model lognormal dengan zero drift: estimasi, bukan prediksi. Asumsi
Expirasi
Buka rantai opsi →| Kedaluwarsa | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | Implied move | ATM IV | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | 3 | ±2.5% | 29.1% | 2,200 |
| Oct 30, 2026 | 10 | ±3.6% | 25.5% | 2,016 |
| Nov 06, 2026 | 17 | ±4.5% | 25.4% | 1,021 |
| Nov 13, 2026 | 24 | ±5.4% | 25.5% | 333 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 31 | ±5.7% | 24.1% | 6,895 |
| Nov 27, 2026 | 38 | ±6.6% | 25.1% | 166 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 59 | ±8.0% | 24.6% | 7,005 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 87 | ±11.6% | 22.6% | 19.4K |
| Feb 19, 2027 | 122 | ±12.5% | 23.1% | 1,868 |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 150 | ±13.4% | 23.5% | 3,286 |
Open interest per strike · Nov 20
Tempat posisi opsi terkonsentrasi. Batang teal adalah call, batang merah adalah put; garis putus-putus adalah harga saat ini.
Konsentrasi open interest terbesar (semua kedaluwarsa ≤ 60 hari): 255 C · 1,742180 P · 1,681235 C · 1,506225 C · 1,200230 C · 1,051
Struktur tenor IV
Halaman volatilitas →Implied volatility at-the-money untuk setiap tanggal kedaluwarsa. Tonjolan di sekitar suatu tanggal sering menandai acara terjadwal yang sedang dihargai oleh pasar.
Kapan open interest kedaluwarsa?
Implied vs volatilitas terealisasi
HV dari penutupan harian tersimpan kami (disetahunkan); IV30 diinterpolasi dari rantai opsi. Metode
Harga, 60 sesi terakhir
Penutupan harian; Financial Modeling Prep.
Rekam jejak
Riwayat lengkap →Dari 121 perbandingan snapshot-versus-hasil yang direkam sejauh ini, penutupan berada di dalam kisaran yang diperkirakan 74.4% dari waktu ke waktu.
Reaksi pendapatan masa lalu
Rata-rata |reaksi| 4.3% · median 3.7% (21 laporan). Jendela waktu dua sesi penutupan ke penutupan; definisi
Tentang The Progressive Corporation
The Progressive Corporation, an insurance holding company, offers a comprehensive range of insurance products and associated services across the United States. Its portfolio includes personal and commercial vehicle coverage, residential and commercial property protection, general liability, and various other specialized property-casualty insurance options. The company's operations are structured into three main divisions: Personal Lines, Commercial Lines, and Property. Within the Personal Lines segment, Progressive provides coverage for individual automobiles and recreational vehicles. Offerings range from standard personal auto policies to specialized options for motorcycles, all-terrain vehicles (ATVs), RVs, watercraft, snowmobiles, and similar forms of personal transport. The Commercial Lines division focuses on providing primary liability and physical damage insurance for business vehicles, alongside general liability and property insurance tailored for commercial applications. This segment insures a diverse array of vehicles, including cars, vans, pickup trucks, and dump trucks for small businesses; tractors, trailers, and straight trucks for regional freight, expedited shippi
Layanan Keuangan · Insurance - Property & Casualty · NYSE · Profil: Financial Modeling Prep
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SOFI · IV 58.9%HOOD · IV 66.6%MARA · IV 93.6%BAC · IV 23.9%COIN · IV 69.3%NU · IV 58.0%