Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC)
Overview · Option chain · Volatility · Expected-move history · Earnings
Cboe delayed options data · as of 15:42 UTC · Figures derived from the full chain (1,356 contracts, 10 expirations) · IV own-history percentile appears after 60 recorded days (28 so far)
Expected move · Nov 20, 2026 (32 days)
Methodology →Read from option prices: the at-the-money straddle costs this much, so the market is pricing a move of about that size in either direction by this date. It is an estimate of movement, not a prediction of direction.
Options are pricing a move of about ±8.0% (range 469.51–550.61) by Nov 20, 2026. ATM straddle: 40.55 @ strike 510 · ATM IV: 33.5%.
Probability distribution
Model & assumptions →The curve shows where a lognormal model, fed with current implied volatility, puts the range of outcomes at this expiration. Shaded: the expected-move band.
| Level | vs price | P(above)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(below) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 459.05 | -10% | 84.4% | 15.6% |
| 484.56 | -5% | 68.0% | 32.0% |
| 510.06 | +0% | 48.0% | 52.0% |
| 535.56 | +5% | 29.4% | 70.6% |
| 561.07 | +10% | 15.6% | 84.4% |
Model-estimated probabilities of finishing above/below each level at expiration: estimates under stated assumptions, not predictions.
Probability explorer
Drag the slider to any level and see the model-estimated chance the stock finishes above or below it at the selected expiration.
Horizon: Nov 20, 2026 · lognormal model with zero drift: an estimate, not a prediction. Assumptions
Expirations
Open the chain →| Expires | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | Implied move | ATM IV | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 20, 2026 | 32 | ±8.0% | 33.5% | 6,650 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 60 | ±9.9% | 30.6% | 5,443 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 88 | ±11.5% | 29.3% | 7,691 |
| Feb 19, 2027 | 123 | ±13.9% | 30.0% | 1,397 |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 151 | ±15.1% | 29.6% | 2,495 |
Open interest by strike · Nov 20
Where option positions are concentrated. Teal bars are calls, red bars are puts; the dashed line is the current price.
Largest open-interest concentrations (all expirations ≤ 60 days): 740 C · 509480 P · 472560 C · 417600 C · 411500 P · 393
IV term structure
Volatility page →At-the-money implied volatility for each expiration. A hump around a date often marks a scheduled event the market is pricing.
When does open interest expire?
Implied vs realized volatility
HV from our stored daily closes (annualized); IV30 interpolated from the chain. Method
Price, last 60 sessions
Daily closes; Financial Modeling Prep.
Track record
Full history →Of 15 recorded snapshot-versus-outcome comparisons so far, the close landed inside the expected range 100.0% of the time.
Past earnings reactions
Avg |reaction| 4.5% · median 3.7% (20 reports). Two-session close-to-close window; definition
About Northrop Grumman Corporation
Northrop Grumman Corporation is a leading global player in the aerospace and defense sectors. Its Aeronautics Systems division is responsible for the full lifecycle of aircraft, from design and development to production, integration, and ongoing maintenance. This includes a diverse portfolio of crewed and uncrewed aerial platforms: advanced strategic long-range strike aircraft, tactical fighter and air superiority jets, and sophisticated airborne systems for battle management and command and control. Additionally, it specializes in autonomous uncrewed aircraft systems, such as high-altitude, long-endurance strategic intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) platforms, alongside vertical take-off and landing tactical ISR systems. The Defense Systems segment focuses on creating and delivering a wide array of weapons and mission technologies. Its offerings encompass integrated battle management solutions, various weapons platforms, and specialized aircraft. Key products include command and control systems, munitions, and missiles, alongside precision strike capabilities. The segment is also at the forefront of propulsion technologies, offering both air-breathing and advance
Industrials · Aerospace & Defense · NYSE · Profile: Financial Modeling Prep
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