NOC historial de movimiento esperado Northrop Grumman Corporation
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas43
Cierre dentro del rango79%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado79%
Movimiento esperado promedio±4.8%
Movimiento |real| promedio2.7%
Error medio abs.4.1pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Nov 20 | 32 | 510.65 | ±8.0% | 469.60–551.70 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Nov 20 | 35 | 519.76 | ±7.8% | 479.16–560.36 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Nov 20 | 37 | 487.02 | ±8.6% | 445.07–528.97 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Nov 20 | 38 | 481.38 | ±7.9% | 443.53–519.23 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Nov 20 | 42 | 480.05 | ±8.1% | 441.25–518.85 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Nov 20 | 43 | 484.48 | ±8.5% | 443.13–525.83 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Nov 20 | 44 | 474.88 | ±8.6% | 434.04–515.74 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Nov 20 | 45 | 483.11 | ±8.4% | 442.71–523.51 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Nov 20 | 46 | 476.11 | ±8.2% | 436.96–515.26 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Nov 20 | 49 | 478.00 | ±8.7% | 436.20–519.80 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Nov 20 | 50 | 481.50 | ±9.0% | 438.00–525.00 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Nov 20 | 58 | 507.78 | ±10.3% | 455.28–560.28 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Nov 20 | 59 | 507.78 | ±10.3% | 455.28–560.28 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Nov 20 | 60 | 519.60 | ±10.2% | 466.40–572.80 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Nov 20 | 63 | 524.79 | ±10.0% | 472.39–577.19 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Nov 20 | 64 | 522.04 | ±10.4% | 467.59–576.49 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Nov 20 | 65 | 531.39 | ±10.5% | 475.69–587.09 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Nov 20 | 66 | 532.05 | ±10.6% | 475.70–588.40 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Nov 20 | 67 | 528.87 | ±10.5% | 473.42–584.32 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Nov 20 | 70 | 521.04 | ±10.3% | 467.60–574.50 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Nov 20 | 71 | 521.71 | ±10.8% | 465.46–577.96 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Nov 20 | 72 | 517.65 | ±10.9% | 461.40–573.90 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Nov 20 | 73 | 518.58 | ±11.2% | 460.68–576.48 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Nov 20 | 74 | 516.00 | ±10.4% | 462.20–569.80 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Nov 20 | 77 | 515.08 | ±10.7% | 459.83–570.33 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Nov 20 | 78 | 529.23 | ±10.8% | 472.08–586.38 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Nov 20 | 79 | 526.58 | ±10.6% | 470.68–582.48 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Nov 20 | 80 | 539.70 | ±10.7% | 482.05–597.35 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Nov 20 | 81 | 539.70 | ±10.7% | 482.05–597.35 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Dec 18 | 60 | 510.65 | ±10.2% | 458.75–562.55 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.6% | +0.0% | dentro | 519.76 → 519.86 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.9% | +6.7% | fuera | 487.02 → 519.86 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.4% | +8.0% | fuera | 481.38 → 519.86 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.7% | +8.3% | fuera | 480.05 → 519.86 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.4% | +7.3% | fuera | 484.48 → 519.86 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.1% | +9.5% | fuera | 474.88 → 519.86 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.6% | +7.6% | fuera | 483.11 → 519.86 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.4% | +9.2% | fuera | 476.11 → 519.86 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.2% | +8.8% | fuera | 478.00 → 519.86 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.5% | +8.0% | fuera | 481.50 → 519.86 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.4% | +2.4% | dentro | 507.78 → 519.86 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.4% | +2.4% | dentro | 507.78 → 519.86 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.1% | +0.1% | dentro | 519.60 → 519.86 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.3% | -0.9% | dentro | 524.79 → 519.86 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.8% | -0.4% | dentro | 522.04 → 519.86 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.7% | -2.2% | dentro | 531.39 → 519.86 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.9% | -2.3% | dentro | 532.05 → 519.86 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.1% | -1.7% | dentro | 528.87 → 519.86 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.1% | -0.2% | dentro | 521.04 → 519.86 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.4% | -0.4% | dentro | 521.71 → 519.86 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.2% | +0.4% | dentro | 517.65 → 519.86 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.8% | +0.2% | dentro | 518.58 → 519.86 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.2% | +0.7% | dentro | 516.00 → 519.86 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.5% | +0.9% | dentro | 515.08 → 519.86 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.5% | -1.8% | dentro | 529.23 → 519.86 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.3% | -1.3% | dentro | 526.58 → 519.86 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.5% | -3.7% | dentro | 539.70 → 519.86 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.5% | -3.7% | dentro | 539.70 → 519.86 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±1.1% | +0.5% | dentro | 524.79 → 527.39 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±1.6% | +1.0% | dentro | 522.04 → 527.39 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±2.0% | -0.8% | dentro | 531.39 → 527.39 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±2.4% | -0.9% | dentro | 532.05 → 527.39 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±2.5% | -0.3% | dentro | 528.87 → 527.39 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±3.2% | +1.2% | dentro | 521.04 → 527.39 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±3.6% | +1.1% | dentro | 521.71 → 527.39 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±3.9% | +1.9% | dentro | 517.65 → 527.39 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±4.2% | +1.7% | dentro | 518.58 → 527.39 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±3.9% | +2.2% | dentro | 516.00 → 527.39 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±3.9% | +2.4% | dentro | 515.08 → 527.39 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±4.0% | -0.3% | dentro | 529.23 → 527.39 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±4.1% | +0.2% | dentro | 526.58 → 527.39 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±4.3% | -2.3% | dentro | 539.70 → 527.39 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±4.3% | -2.3% | dentro | 539.70 → 527.39 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.