Altria Group, Inc. (MO)
Overview · Option chain · Volatility · Expected-move history · Earnings
Cboe delayed options data · as of 18:40 UTC · Figures derived from the full chain (762 contracts, 13 expirations) · IV own-history percentile appears after 60 recorded days (28 so far)
Expected move · Nov 06, 2026 (18 days)
Methodology →Read from option prices: the at-the-money straddle costs this much, so the market is pricing a move of about that size in either direction by this date. It is an estimate of movement, not a prediction of direction.
Options are pricing a move of about ±5.2% (range 70.88–78.58) by Nov 06, 2026. ATM straddle: 3.85 @ strike 75 · ATM IV: 28.9%.
Probability distribution
Model & assumptions →The curve shows where a lognormal model, fed with current implied volatility, puts the range of outcomes at this expiration. Shaded: the expected-move band.
| Level | vs price | P(above)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(below) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67.26 | -10% | 94.6% | 5.4% |
| 70.99 | -5% | 77.9% | 22.1% |
| 74.73 | +0% | 48.7% | 51.3% |
| 78.47 | +5% | 21.4% | 78.6% |
| 82.20 | +10% | 6.5% | 93.5% |
Model-estimated probabilities of finishing above/below each level at expiration: estimates under stated assumptions, not predictions.
Probability explorer
Drag the slider to any level and see the model-estimated chance the stock finishes above or below it at the selected expiration.
Horizon: Nov 06, 2026 · lognormal model with zero drift: an estimate, not a prediction. Assumptions
Expirations
Open the chain →| Expires | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | Implied move | ATM IV | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | 4 | ±2.2% | 25.2% | 23.9K |
| Oct 30, 2026 | 11 | ±4.4% | 31.8% | 11.6K |
| Nov 06, 2026 | 18 | ±5.2% | 28.9% | 17.5K |
| Nov 13, 2026 | 25 | ±5.8% | 27.6% | 2,152 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 32 | ±6.2% | 25.9% | 15.4K |
| Nov 27, 2026 | 39 | ±6.6% | 25.3% | 1,143 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 60 | ±7.9% | 24.1% | 57.5K |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 88 | ±9.5% | 23.5% | 99.6K |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 151 | ±12.1% | 23.5% | 21.6K |
Open interest by strike · Nov 06
Where option positions are concentrated. Teal bars are calls, red bars are puts; the dashed line is the current price.
Largest open-interest concentrations (all expirations ≤ 60 days): 75 C · 16.9K68 P · 9,50070 C · 8,78270 P · 8,36065 P · 6,112
IV term structure
Volatility page →At-the-money implied volatility for each expiration. A hump around a date often marks a scheduled event the market is pricing.
When does open interest expire?
Implied vs realized volatility
HV from our stored daily closes (annualized); IV30 interpolated from the chain. Method
Price, last 60 sessions
Daily closes; Financial Modeling Prep.
Track record
Full history →Of 93 recorded snapshot-versus-outcome comparisons so far, the close landed inside the expected range 84.9% of the time.
Past earnings reactions
Avg |reaction| 3.7% · median 2.0% (20 reports). Two-session close-to-close window; definition
About Altria Group, Inc.
Operating across the United States through its subsidiaries, Altria Group, Inc. is a prominent manufacturer and marketer of both combustible and oral tobacco items. Its portfolio features cigarettes, primarily under the iconic Marlboro brand, alongside cigars and pipe tobacco mainly offered as Black & Mild. The enterprise further provides an assortment of moist smokeless tobacco products, including Copenhagen, Skoal, Red Seal, and Husky, in addition to its on! brand of oral nicotine pouches. Altria distributes its merchandise chiefly to wholesale partners, such as independent distributors, and directly to substantial retail organizations, including major chain stores. The corporation, founded in 1822, maintains its principal offices in Richmond, Virginia.
Consumer Defensive · Tobacco · NYSE · Profile: Financial Modeling Prep
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