Medtronic Plc (MDT)
Overview · Option chain · Volatility · Expected-move history · Earnings
Cboe delayed options data · as of 12:38 UTC · Figures derived from the full chain (950 contracts, 15 expirations) · IV own-history percentile appears after 60 recorded days (28 so far)
Expected move · Nov 20, 2026 (32 days)
Methodology →Read from option prices: the at-the-money straddle costs this much, so the market is pricing a move of about that size in either direction by this date. It is an estimate of movement, not a prediction of direction.
Options are pricing a move of about ±5.9% (range 89.10–100.36) by Nov 20, 2026. ATM straddle: 5.63 @ strike 95 · ATM IV: 23.9%.
Probability distribution
Model & assumptions →The curve shows where a lognormal model, fed with current implied volatility, puts the range of outcomes at this expiration. Shaded: the expected-move band.
| Level | vs price | P(above)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(below) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 85.26 | -10% | 92.7% | 7.3% |
| 89.99 | -5% | 75.5% | 24.5% |
| 94.73 | +0% | 48.6% | 51.4% |
| 99.47 | +5% | 23.4% | 76.6% |
| 104.20 | +10% | 8.3% | 91.7% |
Model-estimated probabilities of finishing above/below each level at expiration: estimates under stated assumptions, not predictions.
Probability explorer
Drag the slider to any level and see the model-estimated chance the stock finishes above or below it at the selected expiration.
Horizon: Nov 20, 2026 · lognormal model with zero drift: an estimate, not a prediction. Assumptions
Expirations
Open the chain →| Expires | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | Implied move | ATM IV | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | 4 | ±2.7% | 24.0% | 6,815 |
| Oct 30, 2026 | 11 | ±3.8% | 24.3% | 5,532 |
| Nov 06, 2026 | 18 | ±4.6% | 24.1% | 2,028 |
| Nov 13, 2026 | 25 | ±5.3% | 24.0% | 1,719 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 32 | ±5.9% | 23.9% | 37.4K |
| Nov 27, 2026 | 39 | ±7.4% | 27.1% | 1,417 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 60 | ±8.7% | 26.1% | 44.9K |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 88 | ±10.3% | 25.7% | 43.5K |
| Feb 19, 2027 | 123 | ±11.8% | 25.2% | 4,239 |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 151 | ±14.4% | 27.7% | 10.6K |
Open interest by strike · Nov 20
Where option positions are concentrated. Teal bars are calls, red bars are puts; the dashed line is the current price.
Largest open-interest concentrations (all expirations ≤ 60 days): 90 P · 13.5K100 C · 7,51185 C · 7,47392.5 C · 7,30595 C · 6,941
IV term structure
Volatility page →At-the-money implied volatility for each expiration. A hump around a date often marks a scheduled event the market is pricing.
When does open interest expire?
Implied vs realized volatility
HV from our stored daily closes (annualized); IV30 interpolated from the chain. Method
Price, last 60 sessions
Daily closes; Financial Modeling Prep.
Track record
Full history →Of 93 recorded snapshot-versus-outcome comparisons so far, the close landed inside the expected range 66.7% of the time.
Past earnings reactions
Avg |reaction| 3.9% · median 4.0% (21 reports). Two-session close-to-close window; definition
About Medtronic Plc
Medtronic plc is a leading global medical technology enterprise that invents, develops, manufactures, and distributes an extensive range of device-based medical therapies. These solutions serve healthcare systems, clinicians, physicians, and patients across the world. The company's operations are categorized into several key portfolios: Cardiovascular Portfolio: This segment focuses on cardiac health, providing technologies for heart rhythm management, including implantable pacemakers, defibrillators, and monitoring systems, alongside cardiac ablation tools and remote patient software. It also addresses structural heart issues with products like aortic and pulmonary valves, surgical repair devices, and endovascular stent grafts, in addition to offerings for percutaneous coronary interventions (e.g., angioplasty balloons). Medical Surgical Portfolio: Offering a broad spectrum of surgical instruments and therapies, this division includes staples, vessel sealing devices, wound closure products, and electrosurgical equipment. It also pioneers surgical artificial intelligence and robotic-assisted platforms, alongside solutions for hernia repair, gynecology, lung conditions, minimally in
Healthcare · Medical - Devices · NYSE · Profile: Financial Modeling Prep
Related securities · Healthcare
MRNA · IV 110.6%UNH · IV 31.7%HIMS · IV 89.0%PFE · IV —LLY · IV 41.0%JNJ · IV 24.5%