Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT)
Overview · Option chain · Volatility · Expected-move history · Earnings
Cboe delayed options data · as of 09:38 UTC · Figures derived from the full chain (2,372 contracts, 14 expirations) · IV own-history percentile appears after 60 recorded days (28 so far)
Expected move · Nov 20, 2026 (32 days)
Methodology →Read from option prices: the at-the-money straddle costs this much, so the market is pricing a move of about that size in either direction by this date. It is an estimate of movement, not a prediction of direction.
Options are pricing a move of about ±7.9% (range 508.49–595.49) by Nov 20, 2026. ATM straddle: 43.50 @ strike 550 · ATM IV: 31.8%.
Probability distribution
Model & assumptions →The curve shows where a lognormal model, fed with current implied volatility, puts the range of outcomes at this expiration. Shaded: the expected-move band.
| Level | vs price | P(above)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(below) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 496.79 | -10% | 85.8% | 14.2% |
| 524.39 | -5% | 69.1% | 30.9% |
| 551.99 | +0% | 48.1% | 51.9% |
| 579.59 | +5% | 28.6% | 71.4% |
| 607.19 | +10% | 14.5% | 85.5% |
Model-estimated probabilities of finishing above/below each level at expiration: estimates under stated assumptions, not predictions.
Probability explorer
Drag the slider to any level and see the model-estimated chance the stock finishes above or below it at the selected expiration.
Horizon: Nov 20, 2026 · lognormal model with zero drift: an estimate, not a prediction. Assumptions
Expirations
Open the chain →| Expires | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | Implied move | ATM IV | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | 4 | ±4.9% | 43.9% | 6,500 |
| Oct 30, 2026 | 11 | ±6.0% | 38.5% | 3,165 |
| Nov 06, 2026 | 18 | ±6.8% | 35.5% | 1,206 |
| Nov 13, 2026 | 25 | ±7.3% | 33.0% | 1,063 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 32 | ±7.9% | 31.8% | 10.4K |
| Nov 27, 2026 | 39 | ±8.9% | 32.9% | 367 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 60 | ±9.8% | 29.3% | 13.9K |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 88 | ±11.0% | 27.7% | 23.2K |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 151 | ±14.8% | 28.7% | 6,165 |
Open interest by strike · Nov 20
Where option positions are concentrated. Teal bars are calls, red bars are puts; the dashed line is the current price.
Largest open-interest concentrations (all expirations ≤ 60 days): 475 P · 1,933600 C · 1,744700 C · 1,269550 C · 1,140500 P · 904
IV term structure
Volatility page →At-the-money implied volatility for each expiration. A hump around a date often marks a scheduled event the market is pricing.
When does open interest expire?
Implied vs realized volatility
HV from our stored daily closes (annualized); IV30 interpolated from the chain. Method
Price, last 60 sessions
Daily closes; Financial Modeling Prep.
Track record
Full history →Of 93 recorded snapshot-versus-outcome comparisons so far, the close landed inside the expected range 78.5% of the time.
Past earnings reactions
Avg |reaction| 5.7% · median 5.4% (20 reports). Two-session close-to-close window; definition
About Lockheed Martin Corporation
Lockheed Martin Corporation stands as a prominent global security and aerospace enterprise, specializing in the comprehensive lifecycle of advanced technological systems. Its expertise spans the research, design, development, manufacturing, integration, and ongoing sustainment of cutting-edge products and services across the world. The company's diverse operations are structured into four key segments: Aeronautics, Missiles and Fire Control, Rotary and Mission Systems, and Space. The Aeronautics division is responsible for creating and producing leading-edge combat and air mobility aircraft, alongside unmanned aerial vehicles and their related innovations. The Missiles and Fire Control segment delivers sophisticated air and missile defense systems; tactical and precision air-to-ground weapon systems; comprehensive logistics; advanced fire control; mission operations, readiness, engineering support, and integration services; both crewed and uncrewed ground vehicles; and energy management solutions. Within the Rotary and Mission Systems segment, the portfolio includes military and commercial helicopters, naval surface ships, land and sea-based missile defense systems, advanced radar
Industrials · Aerospace & Defense · NYSE · Profile: Financial Modeling Prep
Related securities · Industrials
BA · IV 36.5%AAL · IV 47.8%DAL · IV 37.9%UPS · IV 35.8%PLUG · IV 80.6%SMR · IV 88.0%