CarMax, Inc. (KMX)
Overview · Option chain · Volatility · Expected-move history · Earnings
Cboe delayed options data · as of 21:58 UTC · Figures derived from the full chain (372 contracts, 7 expirations) · IV own-history percentile appears after 60 recorded days (29 so far)
Expected move · Nov 20, 2026 (32 days)
Methodology →Read from option prices: the at-the-money straddle costs this much, so the market is pricing a move of about that size in either direction by this date. It is an estimate of movement, not a prediction of direction.
Options are pricing a move of about ±10.5% (range 46.34–57.19) by Nov 20, 2026. ATM straddle: 5.42 @ strike 52.5 · ATM IV: 43.8%.
Probability distribution
Model & assumptions →The curve shows where a lognormal model, fed with current implied volatility, puts the range of outcomes at this expiration. Shaded: the expected-move band.
| Level | vs price | P(above)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(below) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 46.59 | -10% | 77.3% | 22.7% |
| 49.18 | -5% | 62.9% | 37.1% |
| 51.77 | +0% | 47.4% | 52.6% |
| 54.35 | +5% | 33.0% | 67.0% |
| 56.94 | +10% | 21.2% | 78.8% |
Model-estimated probabilities of finishing above/below each level at expiration: estimates under stated assumptions, not predictions.
Probability explorer
Drag the slider to any level and see the model-estimated chance the stock finishes above or below it at the selected expiration.
Horizon: Nov 20, 2026 · lognormal model with zero drift: an estimate, not a prediction. Assumptions
Expirations
Open the chain →| Expires | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | Implied move | ATM IV | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 20, 2026 | 32 | ±10.5% | 43.8% | 6,371 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 60 | ±16.9% | 51.8% | 1,749 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 88 | ±19.0% | 47.9% | 17.4K |
| Apr 16, 2027 | 179 | ±27.6% | 49.0% | 2,885 |
Open interest by strike · Nov 20
Where option positions are concentrated. Teal bars are calls, red bars are puts; the dashed line is the current price.
Largest open-interest concentrations (all expirations ≤ 60 days): 60 C · 2,13852.5 P · 85245 P · 69570 C · 57747.5 P · 446
IV term structure
Volatility page →At-the-money implied volatility for each expiration. A hump around a date often marks a scheduled event the market is pricing.
When does open interest expire?
Implied vs realized volatility
HV from our stored daily closes (annualized); IV30 interpolated from the chain. Method
Price, last 60 sessions
Daily closes; Financial Modeling Prep.
Track record
Full history →Of 43 recorded snapshot-versus-outcome comparisons so far, the close landed inside the expected range 72.1% of the time.
Past earnings reactions
Avg |reaction| 8.3% · median 6.3% (21 reports). Two-session close-to-close window; definition
About CarMax, Inc.
CarMax, Inc., together with its associated entities, functions as a prominent purveyor of previously owned automobiles across the United States. Its business operations are strategically structured into two principal divisions: CarMax Sales Operations and CarMax Auto Finance. Through its retail offerings, the company provides an extensive selection of pre-owned vehicles, including various domestic, imported, and luxury models, in addition to hybrid and electric options. Customers also have the opportunity to purchase extended protection plans at the time of their vehicle acquisition. Separately, CarMax sells older, higher-mileage vehicles—typically around ten years old with over 100,000 miles—via wholesale auctions. Furthermore, CarMax delivers reconditioning and repair services for its vehicles. For its retail clients, the company facilitates a range of financing alternatives designed to accommodate diverse credit profiles, managed both by its internal CarMax Auto Finance segment and through arrangements with various external financial institutions. As of February 28, 2022, CarMax operated a network comprising approximately 230 retail locations specializing in used cars. Founded i
Consumer Cyclical · Auto - Dealerships · NYSE · Profile: Financial Modeling Prep
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