The Home Depot, Inc. (HD)
Overview · Option chain · Volatility · Expected-move history · Earnings
Cboe delayed options data · as of 21:56 UTC · Figures derived from the full chain (1,844 contracts, 18 expirations) · IV own-history percentile appears after 60 recorded days (29 so far)
Expected move · Nov 20, 2026 (32 days)
Methodology →Read from option prices: the at-the-money straddle costs this much, so the market is pricing a move of about that size in either direction by this date. It is an estimate of movement, not a prediction of direction.
Options are pricing a move of about ±7.4% (range 287.00–332.75) by Nov 20, 2026. ATM straddle: 22.88 @ strike 310 · ATM IV: 31.2%.
Probability distribution
Model & assumptions →The curve shows where a lognormal model, fed with current implied volatility, puts the range of outcomes at this expiration. Shaded: the expected-move band.
| Level | vs price | P(above)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(below) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 278.89 | -10% | 86.3% | 13.7% |
| 294.39 | -5% | 69.5% | 30.5% |
| 309.88 | +0% | 48.2% | 51.8% |
| 325.37 | +5% | 28.3% | 71.7% |
| 340.87 | +10% | 14.0% | 86.0% |
Model-estimated probabilities of finishing above/below each level at expiration: estimates under stated assumptions, not predictions.
Probability explorer
Drag the slider to any level and see the model-estimated chance the stock finishes above or below it at the selected expiration.
Horizon: Nov 20, 2026 · lognormal model with zero drift: an estimate, not a prediction. Assumptions
Expirations
Open the chain →| Expires | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | Implied move | ATM IV | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | 4 | ±2.5% | 29.8% | 16.3K |
| Oct 30, 2026 | 11 | ±4.0% | 28.4% | 9,470 |
| Nov 06, 2026 | 18 | ±5.0% | 28.0% | 7,196 |
| Nov 13, 2026 | 25 | ±5.9% | 28.1% | 5,589 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 32 | ±7.4% | 31.2% | 40.0K |
| Nov 27, 2026 | 39 | ±7.9% | 30.4% | 535 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 60 | ±9.7% | 29.7% | 37.4K |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 88 | ±11.3% | 28.8% | 51.5K |
| Feb 19, 2027 | 123 | ±13.3% | 28.8% | 5,879 |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 151 | ±14.9% | 29.1% | 15.2K |
Open interest by strike · Nov 20
Where option positions are concentrated. Teal bars are calls, red bars are puts; the dashed line is the current price.
Largest open-interest concentrations (all expirations ≤ 60 days): 300 P · 5,615320 C · 4,896325 C · 4,107340 C · 4,095330 C · 4,029
IV term structure
Volatility page →At-the-money implied volatility for each expiration. A hump around a date often marks a scheduled event the market is pricing.
When does open interest expire?
Implied vs realized volatility
HV from our stored daily closes (annualized); IV30 interpolated from the chain. Method
Price, last 60 sessions
Daily closes; Financial Modeling Prep.
Track record
Full history →Of 121 recorded snapshot-versus-outcome comparisons so far, the close landed inside the expected range 39.7% of the time.
Past earnings reactions
Avg |reaction| 3.4% · median 2.6% (21 reports). Two-session close-to-close window; definition
About The Home Depot, Inc.
The Home Depot, Inc. operates as a prominent retailer specializing in home renovation and improvement. Through its expansive network of "The Home Depot" stores, it furnishes consumers with an extensive array of goods, including building materials, home enhancement products, lawn and garden supplies, decorative items, and facilities maintenance, repair, and operational (MRO) supplies. In addition to selling products, the company extends professional installation services for key home features like flooring, cabinetry (including makeovers), countertops, furnaces and central air conditioning systems, and window replacements. Customers can also access tool and equipment rental options. Its diverse clientele includes both individual homeowners and a broad spectrum of professional clients, such as renovators, general contractors, maintenance personnel, handymen, property managers, building service contractors, and specialized tradespeople like electricians, plumbers, and painters. The firm also distributes its merchandise through several online platforms, notably homedepot.com, along with specialized sites such as blinds.com for bespoke window coverings and thecompanystore.com for home t
Consumer Cyclical · Home Improvement · NYSE · Profile: Financial Modeling Prep
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