HD histórico de movimento esperado The Home Depot, Inc.
A cada dia útil, após o fechamento, registramos o que o mercado de opções estava precificando — por expiração, antes de o resultado ser conhecido. Quando uma expiração passa, o resultado é registrado ao lado da estimativa original. As estimativas nunca são revisadas após o fato. Como interpretar estas estatísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparações resolvidas93
Fechar dentro do intervalo31%
|Real| abaixo do esperado31%
Movimento esperado médio±3.7%
Movimento |real| médio5.2%
Erro médio absoluto1.9pt
Implícita vs. realizada, por vencimento
Para cada expiração: o contorno âmbar é o movimento esperado registrado mais próximo do vencimento; a barra sólida é o que a ação realmente fez. Os valores com sinal aparecem abaixo das barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Atualmente registado (a aguardar resultado)
| Snapshot | Expira | DTE | Spot na época | Movimento esperado | Intervalo | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | Oct 16 | 0 | 309.35 | ±0.2% | 308.64–310.06 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 16 | 2 | 295.34 | ±2.0% | 289.35–301.33 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 16 | 3 | 294.17 | ±2.2% | 287.63–300.71 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 16 | 7 | 291.00 | ±2.8% | 282.73–299.27 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 16 | 8 | 295.35 | ±3.4% | 285.43–305.27 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 16 | 9 | 285.51 | ±3.3% | 276.06–294.96 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 16 | 10 | 287.00 | ±3.4% | 277.27–296.73 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 16 | 11 | 281.45 | ±3.6% | 271.20–291.70 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 16 | 14 | 283.20 | ±4.1% | 271.62–294.77 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 16 | 15 | 282.79 | ±4.6% | 269.81–295.76 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 16 | 23 | 305.30 | ±5.3% | 289.25–321.35 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 16 | 24 | 305.87 | ±5.2% | 289.82–321.92 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 16 | 25 | 297.20 | ±5.2% | 281.82–312.57 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 16 | 28 | 300.00 | ±5.3% | 284.12–315.88 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 16 | 29 | 302.99 | ±5.5% | 286.34–319.64 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 16 | 30 | 303.25 | ±5.9% | 285.45–321.05 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 16 | 31 | 306.00 | ±5.7% | 288.55–323.45 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 16 | 32 | 310.96 | ±5.9% | 292.71–329.21 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 16 | 35 | 309.10 | ±5.9% | 290.75–327.45 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 16 | 36 | 305.75 | ±6.4% | 286.15–325.35 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 16 | 37 | 311.00 | ±6.3% | 291.55–330.45 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 16 | 38 | 313.80 | ±6.6% | 293.23–334.38 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 16 | 39 | 321.05 | ±6.7% | 299.40–342.70 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 16 | 42 | 321.05 | ±6.7% | 299.40–342.70 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 16 | 43 | 318.10 | ±6.8% | 296.45–339.75 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Oct 16 | 44 | 318.21 | ±7.0% | 295.99–340.44 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Oct 16 | 45 | 320.00 | ±7.3% | 296.65–343.35 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Oct 16 | 46 | 328.12 | ±7.2% | 304.55–351.69 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 309.35 | ±3.3% | 299.23–319.48 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 295.34 | ±3.7% | 284.51–306.17 | em-1.0 |
Snapshots encerrados
| Snapshot | Expirado | Esperado | Real | Dentro do intervalo? | Spot → fechamento |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.2% | -0.1% | dentro | 291.00 → 290.74 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.3% | -1.6% | fora | 295.35 → 290.74 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.7% | +1.8% | fora | 285.51 → 290.74 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.0% | +1.3% | dentro | 287.00 → 290.74 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.4% | +3.3% | fora | 281.45 → 290.74 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.8% | +2.7% | dentro | 283.20 → 290.74 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.4% | +2.8% | dentro | 282.79 → 290.74 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.5% | -4.8% | fora | 305.30 → 290.74 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.5% | -4.9% | fora | 305.87 → 290.74 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.6% | -2.2% | dentro | 297.20 → 290.74 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.7% | -3.1% | dentro | 300.00 → 290.74 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.7% | -4.0% | dentro | 302.99 → 290.74 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.1% | -4.1% | dentro | 303.25 → 290.74 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.3% | -5.0% | dentro | 306.00 → 290.74 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.2% | -6.5% | fora | 310.96 → 290.74 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.4% | -5.9% | fora | 309.10 → 290.74 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.7% | -4.9% | dentro | 305.75 → 290.74 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.9% | -6.5% | fora | 311.00 → 290.74 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.9% | -7.3% | fora | 313.80 → 290.74 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.1% | -9.4% | fora | 321.05 → 290.74 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.1% | -9.4% | fora | 321.05 → 290.74 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.2% | -8.6% | fora | 318.10 → 290.74 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.3% | -8.6% | fora | 318.21 → 290.74 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.6% | -9.1% | fora | 320.00 → 290.74 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.6% | -11.4% | fora | 328.12 → 290.74 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.2% | -0.1% | dentro | 283.20 → 282.85 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.5% | +0.0% | dentro | 282.79 → 282.85 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.5% | -7.4% | fora | 305.30 → 282.85 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.5% | -7.5% | fora | 305.87 → 282.85 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.6% | -4.8% | fora | 297.20 → 282.85 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.8% | -5.7% | fora | 300.00 → 282.85 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.1% | -6.6% | fora | 302.99 → 282.85 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.4% | -6.7% | fora | 303.25 → 282.85 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.4% | -7.6% | fora | 306.00 → 282.85 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.9% | -9.0% | fora | 310.96 → 282.85 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.6% | -8.5% | fora | 309.10 → 282.85 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.0% | -7.5% | fora | 305.75 → 282.85 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.0% | -9.1% | fora | 311.00 → 282.85 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.4% | -9.9% | fora | 313.80 → 282.85 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.4% | -11.9% | fora | 321.05 → 282.85 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.4% | -11.9% | fora | 321.05 → 282.85 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.4% | -11.1% | fora | 318.10 → 282.85 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.7% | -11.1% | fora | 318.21 → 282.85 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.9% | -11.6% | fora | 320.00 → 282.85 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.8% | -13.8% | fora | 328.12 → 282.85 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±2.1% | -4.0% | fora | 305.30 → 293.20 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±2.1% | -4.1% | fora | 305.87 → 293.20 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±2.3% | -1.3% | dentro | 297.20 → 293.20 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±2.5% | -2.3% | dentro | 300.00 → 293.20 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.2% | -3.2% | fora | 302.99 → 293.20 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.3% | -3.3% | fora | 303.25 → 293.20 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.8% | -4.2% | fora | 306.00 → 293.20 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.7% | -5.7% | fora | 310.96 → 293.20 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.9% | -5.1% | fora | 309.10 → 293.20 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.4% | -4.1% | dentro | 305.75 → 293.20 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.3% | -5.7% | fora | 311.00 → 293.20 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.6% | -6.6% | fora | 313.80 → 293.20 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.7% | -8.7% | fora | 321.05 → 293.20 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.7% | -8.7% | fora | 321.05 → 293.20 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.7% | -7.8% | fora | 318.10 → 293.20 |
Os resultados comparam o intervalo registado com o preço de fecho no dia de expiração. A versão do método é indicada por linha quando difere; atual: em-1.0.