The Home Depot, Inc. (HD)
Overview · Option chain · Volatility · Expected-move history · Earnings
Cboe delayed options data · as of 00:35 UTC · Figures derived from the full chain (1,760 contracts, 17 expirations) · IV own-history percentile appears after 60 recorded days (3 so far)
Expected move — Sep 18, 2026 (16 days)
Methodology →Read from option prices: the at-the-money straddle costs this much, so the market is pricing a move of about that size in either direction by this date. It is an estimate of movement, not a prediction of direction.
Options are pricing a move of about ±4.2% (range 304.76–331.66) by Sep 18, 2026. ATM straddle: 13.45 @ strike 317.5 · ATM IV: 25.2%.
Probability distribution
Model & assumptions →The curve shows where a lognormal model, fed with current implied volatility, puts the range of outcomes at this expiration. Shaded: the expected-move band.
| Level | vs price | P(above)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(below) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 286.39 | -10% | 97.5% | 2.5% |
| 302.30 | -5% | 82.7% | 17.3% |
| 318.21 | +0% | 48.9% | 51.1% |
| 334.12 | +5% | 17.1% | 82.9% |
| 350.03 | +10% | 3.4% | 96.6% |
Model-estimated probabilities of finishing above/below each level at expiration — estimates under stated assumptions, not predictions.
Probability explorer
Drag the slider to any level and see the model-estimated chance the stock finishes above or below it at the selected expiration.
Horizon: Sep 18, 2026 · lognormal model, zero drift — an estimate, not a prediction. Assumptions
Expirations
Open the chain →| Expires | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | Implied move | ATM IV | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 04, 2026 | 2 | ±1.7% | 28.1% | 14.2K |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 9 | ±2.9% | 22.9% | 7,454 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 16 | ±4.2% | 25.2% | 57.4K |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 23 | ±5.1% | 24.9% | 3,498 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | 30 | ±5.7% | 24.8% | 1,819 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | 37 | ±6.3% | 24.6% | 305 |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 44 | ±7.0% | 25.0% | 22.9K |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 79 | ±10.2% | 27.4% | 15.0K |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 107 | ±11.7% | 26.8% | 21.5K |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 135 | ±13.3% | 27.4% | 42.1K |
| Feb 19, 2027 | 170 | ±14.4% | 26.4% | 2,919 |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 198 | ±16.2% | 27.6% | 5,288 |
Open interest by strike — Sep 18
Where option positions are concentrated. Teal bars are calls, red bars are puts; the dashed line is the current price.
Largest open-interest concentrations (all expirations ≤ 60 days): 400 C · 7,206320 P · 5,699350 C · 5,658380 C · 4,847270 P · 4,550
IV term structure
Volatility page →At-the-money implied volatility for each expiration. A hump around a date often marks a scheduled event the market is pricing.
When does open interest expire?
Implied vs realized volatility
HV from our stored daily closes (annualized); IV30 interpolated from the chain. Method
Price, last 60 sessions
Track record
Full history →Every trading day we record what the options market is pricing for each expiration — before the outcome is known. Once expirations start resolving, this section compares expected versus actual, and the record is never rewritten. Recording since Aug 31, 2026.
Past earnings reactions
Avg |reaction| 3.4% · median 2.6% (21 reports) — two-session close-to-close window; definition
About The Home Depot, Inc.
The Home Depot, Inc. operates as a prominent retailer specializing in home renovation and improvement. Through its expansive network of "The Home Depot" stores, it furnishes consumers with an extensive array of goods, including building materials, home enhancement products, lawn and garden supplies, decorative items, and facilities maintenance, repair, and operational (MRO) supplies. In addition to selling products, the company extends professional installation services for key home features like flooring, cabinetry (including makeovers), countertops, furnaces and central air conditioning systems, and window replacements. Customers can also access tool and equipment rental options. Its diverse clientele includes both individual homeowners and a broad spectrum of professional clients, such as renovators, general contractors, maintenance personnel, handymen, property managers, building service contractors, and specialized tradespeople like electricians, plumbers, and painters. The firm also distributes its merchandise through several online platforms, notably homedepot.com, along with specialized sites such as blinds.com for bespoke window coverings and thecompanystore.com for home t
Consumer Cyclical · Home Improvement · NYSE · Profile: Financial Modeling Prep
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