The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (EL)
Ikhtisar · Rantai opsi · Volatilitas · Riwayat pergerakan yang diharapkan · Laba
Cboe delayed options data · per 21:53 UTC · Angka yang diturunkan dari rantai opsi penuh (982 kontrak, 14 kedaluwarsa) · Persentil riwayat IV sendiri muncul setelah 60 hari pencatatan (30 sejauh ini)
Pergerakan yang diharapkan · Nov 20, 2026 (31 hari)
Metodologi →Dibaca dari harga opsi: straddle at-the-money berharga sebesar ini, sehingga pasar memperkirakan pergerakan sekitar sebesar itu ke salah satu arah pada tanggal ini. Ini adalah estimasi besarnya pergerakan, bukan prediksi arahnya.
Opsi memperkirakan pergerakan sekitar ±12.3% (rentang 92.90–118.90) oleh Nov 20, 2026. ATM straddle: 13.00 @ strike 106 · ATM IV: 52.8%.
Distribusi probabilitas
Model & asumsi →Kurva ini menunjukkan kisaran hasil yang diperkirakan oleh model lognormal — yang menggunakan implied volatility saat ini — pada ekspirasi ini. Bagian yang diarsir: pita pergerakan yang diperkirakan.
| Level | vs harga | P(di atas)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(di bawah) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 95.31 | -10% | 72.9% | 27.1% |
| 100.61 | -5% | 60.1% | 39.9% |
| 105.90 | -0% | 46.9% | 53.1% |
| 111.20 | +5% | 34.7% | 65.3% |
| 116.50 | +10% | 24.3% | 75.7% |
Probabilitas yang diestimasi model untuk harga berakhir di atas/di bawah setiap level saat kedaluwarsa: estimasi berdasarkan asumsi tertentu, bukan prediksi.
Penjelajah probabilitas
Geser slider ke level mana pun dan lihat perkiraan peluang dari model bahwa saham akan berakhir di atas atau di bawah level tersebut pada expirasi yang dipilih.
Horizon: Nov 20, 2026 · Model lognormal dengan zero drift: estimasi, bukan prediksi. Asumsi
Expirasi
Buka rantai opsi →| Kedaluwarsa | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | Implied move | ATM IV | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | 3 | ±2.8% | 38.5% | 2,569 |
| Oct 30, 2026 | 10 | ±5.2% | 39.1% | 2,384 |
| Nov 06, 2026 | 17 | ±11.1% | 64.5% | 483 |
| Nov 13, 2026 | 24 | ±11.9% | 58.2% | 185 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 31 | ±12.3% | 52.8% | 6,688 |
| Nov 27, 2026 | 38 | ±13.1% | 51.0% | 125 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 59 | ±14.5% | 45.4% | 13.0K |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 87 | ±16.6% | 42.7% | 54.2K |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 150 | ±21.6% | 42.6% | 72.6K |
| Apr 16, 2027 | 178 | ±23.7% | 43.1% | 28.6K |
Open interest per strike · Nov 20
Tempat posisi opsi terkonsentrasi. Batang teal adalah call, batang merah adalah put; garis putus-putus adalah harga saat ini.
Konsentrasi open interest terbesar (semua kedaluwarsa ≤ 60 hari): 110 C · 2,801100 C · 2,47375 P · 1,501115 C · 1,199130 C · 1,142
Struktur tenor IV
Halaman volatilitas →Implied volatility at-the-money untuk setiap tanggal kedaluwarsa. Tonjolan di sekitar suatu tanggal sering menandai acara terjadwal yang sedang dihargai oleh pasar.
Kapan open interest kedaluwarsa?
Implied vs volatilitas terealisasi
HV dari penutupan harian tersimpan kami (disetahunkan); IV30 diinterpolasi dari rantai opsi. Metode
Harga, 60 sesi terakhir
Penutupan harian; Financial Modeling Prep.
Rekam jejak
Riwayat lengkap →Dari 121 perbandingan snapshot-versus-hasil yang direkam sejauh ini, penutupan berada di dalam kisaran yang diperkirakan 59.5% dari waktu ke waktu.
Reaksi pendapatan masa lalu
Rata-rata |reaksi| 7.9% · median 6.0% (21 laporan). Jendela waktu dua sesi penutupan ke penutupan; definisi
Tentang The Estée Lauder Companies Inc.
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. is a global entity dedicated to the development, marketing, and sale of a diverse range of premium beauty and personal care items worldwide. Its extensive product catalog encompasses numerous offerings across four primary categories. For skin care, it provides moisturizers, serums, cleansers, toners, body treatments, exfoliants, acne and oil control solutions, facial masks, specialized cleansing devices, and sun protection. In makeup, consumers can find lipsticks, glosses, mascaras, foundations, eyeshadows, nail polishes, powders, compacts, brushes, and various other cosmetic tools. The fragrance segment includes eau de parfum sprays, colognes, scented lotions, powders, creams, candles, and soaps. Lastly, its hair care selection features shampoos, conditioners, styling aids, treatments, finishing sprays, and hair color products. Beyond these, the company also offers ancillary products and services. Estée Lauder boasts an impressive portfolio of owned brands, such as Clinique, M·A·C, Aveda, La Mer, Jo Malone London, and The Ordinary, among many others. Furthermore, it operates under license agreements for notable fashion labels including Tommy Hilfige
Konsumer Defensif · Household & Personal Products · NYSE · Profil: Financial Modeling Prep
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WMT · IV 29.9%KHC · IV 29.6%KO · IV 20.6%COST · IV 18.9%PEP · IV 20.9%CELH · IV 63.1%