Chevron Corporation (CVX)
Overview · Option chain · Volatility · Expected-move history · Earnings
Cboe delayed options data · as of 20:03 UTC · Figures derived from the full chain (1,108 contracts, 14 expirations) · IV own-history percentile appears after 60 recorded days (28 so far)
Expected move · Nov 20, 2026 (32 days)
Methodology →Read from option prices: the at-the-money straddle costs this much, so the market is pricing a move of about that size in either direction by this date. It is an estimate of movement, not a prediction of direction.
Options are pricing a move of about ±6.8% (range 209.62–240.16) by Nov 20, 2026. ATM straddle: 15.28 @ strike 225 · ATM IV: 27.6%.
Probability distribution
Model & assumptions →The curve shows where a lognormal model, fed with current implied volatility, puts the range of outcomes at this expiration. Shaded: the expected-move band.
| Level | vs price | P(above)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(below) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 202.40 | -10% | 89.4% | 10.6% |
| 213.65 | -5% | 72.1% | 27.9% |
| 224.89 | +0% | 48.4% | 51.6% |
| 236.13 | +5% | 26.2% | 73.8% |
| 247.38 | +10% | 11.4% | 88.6% |
Model-estimated probabilities of finishing above/below each level at expiration: estimates under stated assumptions, not predictions.
Probability explorer
Drag the slider to any level and see the model-estimated chance the stock finishes above or below it at the selected expiration.
Horizon: Nov 20, 2026 · lognormal model with zero drift: an estimate, not a prediction. Assumptions
Expirations
Open the chain →| Expires | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | Implied move | ATM IV | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | 4 | ±2.5% | 29.6% | 35.6K |
| Oct 30, 2026 | 11 | ±4.5% | 32.2% | 14.9K |
| Nov 06, 2026 | 18 | ±5.5% | 30.7% | 6,870 |
| Nov 13, 2026 | 25 | ±6.1% | 29.1% | 2,454 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 32 | ±6.8% | 27.6% | 67.4K |
| Nov 27, 2026 | 39 | ±7.4% | 27.8% | 966 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 60 | ±8.9% | 27.2% | 94.3K |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 88 | ±10.6% | 26.9% | 132.7K |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 151 | ±14.0% | 27.5% | 32.2K |
Open interest by strike · Nov 20
Where option positions are concentrated. Teal bars are calls, red bars are puts; the dashed line is the current price.
Largest open-interest concentrations (all expirations ≤ 60 days): 230 C · 29.0K240 C · 26.2K220 C · 22.4K250 C · 14.7K200 P · 10.7K
IV term structure
Volatility page →At-the-money implied volatility for each expiration. A hump around a date often marks a scheduled event the market is pricing.
When does open interest expire?
Implied vs realized volatility
HV from our stored daily closes (annualized); IV30 interpolated from the chain. Method
Price, last 60 sessions
Daily closes; Financial Modeling Prep.
Track record
Full history →Of 93 recorded snapshot-versus-outcome comparisons so far, the close landed inside the expected range 88.2% of the time.
Past earnings reactions
Avg |reaction| 2.5% · median 1.7% (20 reports). Two-session close-to-close window; definition
About Chevron Corporation
Chevron Corporation functions as a global energy and chemicals powerhouse, orchestrating its diverse operations worldwide. The company's business is organized into two primary divisions: Upstream and Downstream. The Upstream segment focuses on the full lifecycle of crude oil and natural gas, from their initial exploration and development to production and subsequent transportation. This also encompasses the processing, liquefaction, transit, and regasification of liquefied natural gas (LNG), as well as pipeline transport of crude oil and the movement, storage, and sale of natural gas. Additionally, this segment manages a facility dedicated to converting natural gas into liquid fuels. In contrast, the Downstream segment is tasked with refining crude oil into a variety of petroleum products. Its activities include the merchandising of crude oil, refined goods, and lubricants, in addition to the creation and distribution of renewable fuels. This division is also responsible for moving crude oil and refined products using a range of methods, including pipelines, ships, motor vehicles, and rail cars. Furthermore, it produces and markets bulk petrochemicals, industrial-grade plastics, an
Energy · Oil & Gas Integrated · NYSE · Profile: Financial Modeling Prep
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