State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP · ETF)
Overview · Option chain · Volatility · Expected-move history
Cboe delayed options data · as of 21:55 UTC · Figures derived from the full chain (2,118 contracts, 16 expirations) · IV own-history percentile appears after 60 recorded days (4 so far)
Expected move — Sep 18, 2026 (15 days)
Methodology →Read from option prices: the at-the-money straddle costs this much, so the market is pricing a move of about that size in either direction by this date. It is an estimate of movement, not a prediction of direction.
Options are pricing a move of about ±4.6% (range 183.41–201.16) by Sep 18, 2026. ATM straddle: 8.88 @ strike 192.5 · ATM IV: 28.4%.
Probability distribution
Model & assumptions →The curve shows where a lognormal model, fed with current implied volatility, puts the range of outcomes at this expiration. Shaded: the expected-move band.
| Level | vs price | P(above)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(below) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 173.05 | -10% | 96.4% | 3.6% |
| 182.67 | -5% | 80.6% | 19.4% |
| 192.28 | +0% | 48.9% | 51.1% |
| 201.89 | +5% | 19.0% | 81.0% |
| 211.51 | +10% | 4.6% | 95.4% |
Model-estimated probabilities of finishing above/below each level at expiration — estimates under stated assumptions, not predictions.
Probability explorer
Drag the slider to any level and see the model-estimated chance the stock finishes above or below it at the selected expiration.
Horizon: Sep 18, 2026 · lognormal model, zero drift — an estimate, not a prediction. Assumptions
Expirations
Open the chain →| Expires | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | Implied move | ATM IV | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 04, 2026 | 1 | ±1.2% | 29.3% | 49.7K |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 8 | ±3.2% | 27.2% | 4,535 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 15 | ±4.6% | 28.4% | 112.7K |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 22 | ±5.9% | 29.6% | 2,851 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | 29 | ±6.7% | 29.8% | 1,048 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | 36 | ±7.6% | 30.3% | 338 |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 43 | ±8.7% | 31.8% | 75.3K |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 50 | ±9.0% | 30.5% | 0 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 78 | ±11.4% | 30.9% | 372 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 106 | ±13.8% | 32.2% | 67.2K |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 134 | ±15.3% | 31.8% | 60.2K |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 197 | ±18.7% | 32.2% | 10.5K |
Open interest by strike — Sep 18
Where option positions are concentrated. Teal bars are calls, red bars are puts; the dashed line is the current price.
Largest open-interest concentrations (all expirations ≤ 60 days): 170 P · 28.9K150 P · 27.8K165 P · 26.8K175 P · 18.0K155 P · 11.0K
IV term structure
Volatility page →At-the-money implied volatility for each expiration. A hump around a date often marks a scheduled event the market is pricing.
When does open interest expire?
Implied vs realized volatility
HV from our stored daily closes (annualized); IV30 interpolated from the chain. Method
Price, last 60 sessions
Track record
Full history →Every trading day we record what the options market is pricing for each expiration — before the outcome is known. Once expirations start resolving, this section compares expected versus actual, and the record is never rewritten. Recording since Aug 31, 2026.
About State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF
This State Street SPDR ETF aims to deliver investment results that, prior to fees and expenses, generally mirror the total return performance of the S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Select Industry Index. It offers investors targeted exposure to the oil and gas exploration and production segment of the S&P TMI, which includes the Integrated Oil & Gas, Oil & Gas Exploration & Production, and Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing sub-industries. The fund tracks a modified equal-weighted index, providing diversified industry representation across large, mid, and small-cap companies. This structure enables investors to implement more precise strategic or tactical positions compared to broader sector-based investment approaches.
ETF · Asset Management - Global · AMEX · Profile: Financial Modeling Prep
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