State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP · ETF)
Overview · Option chain · Volatility · Expected-move history
Cboe delayed options data · as of 15:47 UTC · Figures derived from the full chain (2,040 contracts, 14 expirations) · IV own-history percentile appears after 60 recorded days (28 so far)
Expected move · Nov 20, 2026 (32 days)
Methodology →Read from option prices: the at-the-money straddle costs this much, so the market is pricing a move of about that size in either direction by this date. It is an estimate of movement, not a prediction of direction.
Options are pricing a move of about ±7.6% (range 184.48–214.83) by Nov 20, 2026. ATM straddle: 15.18 @ strike 200 · ATM IV: 31.9%.
Probability distribution
Model & assumptions →The curve shows where a lognormal model, fed with current implied volatility, puts the range of outcomes at this expiration. Shaded: the expected-move band.
| Level | vs price | P(above)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(below) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 179.69 | -10% | 85.7% | 14.3% |
| 189.67 | -5% | 69.0% | 31.0% |
| 199.66 | +0% | 48.1% | 51.9% |
| 209.64 | +5% | 28.7% | 71.3% |
| 219.62 | +10% | 14.6% | 85.4% |
Model-estimated probabilities of finishing above/below each level at expiration: estimates under stated assumptions, not predictions.
Probability explorer
Drag the slider to any level and see the model-estimated chance the stock finishes above or below it at the selected expiration.
Horizon: Nov 20, 2026 · lognormal model with zero drift: an estimate, not a prediction. Assumptions
Expirations
Open the chain →| Expires | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | Implied move | ATM IV | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | 4 | ±3.2% | 36.7% | 8,936 |
| Oct 30, 2026 | 11 | ±4.8% | 34.3% | 3,183 |
| Nov 06, 2026 | 18 | ±5.9% | 33.0% | 1,599 |
| Nov 13, 2026 | 25 | ±6.8% | 32.3% | 304 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 32 | ±7.6% | 31.9% | 21.2K |
| Nov 27, 2026 | 39 | ±8.7% | 33.1% | 270 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 60 | ±10.6% | 32.5% | 76.6K |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 88 | ±12.6% | 32.1% | 63.6K |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 151 | ±16.6% | 32.3% | 13.7K |
Open interest by strike · Nov 20
Where option positions are concentrated. Teal bars are calls, red bars are puts; the dashed line is the current price.
Largest open-interest concentrations (all expirations ≤ 60 days): 175 P · 10.3K165 P · 6,166130 P · 5,691170 P · 5,290185 P · 4,473
IV term structure
Volatility page →At-the-money implied volatility for each expiration. A hump around a date often marks a scheduled event the market is pricing.
When does open interest expire?
Implied vs realized volatility
HV from our stored daily closes (annualized); IV30 interpolated from the chain. Method
Price, last 60 sessions
Daily closes; Financial Modeling Prep.
Track record
Full history →Of 93 recorded snapshot-versus-outcome comparisons so far, the close landed inside the expected range 86.0% of the time.
About State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF
This State Street SPDR ETF aims to deliver investment results that, prior to fees and expenses, generally mirror the total return performance of the S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Select Industry Index. It offers investors targeted exposure to the oil and gas exploration and production segment of the S&P TMI, which includes the Integrated Oil & Gas, Oil & Gas Exploration & Production, and Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing sub-industries. The fund tracks a modified equal-weighted index, providing diversified industry representation across large, mid, and small-cap companies. This structure enables investors to implement more precise strategic or tactical positions compared to broader sector-based investment approaches.
ETF · Asset Management - Global · AMEX · Profile: Financial Modeling Prep
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