State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP · ETF)
Cboe delayed options data · 截至 03:39 UTC · 基于完整期权链衍生的数据 (1,080 合约, 13 到期日) · IV自身历史百分位在记录满60天后显示 (3 迄今为止)
预期涨跌幅 — Sep 18, 2026 (16 天)
方法论 →从期权价格中读取：平值跨式期权的成本即为市场在此日期前预计的双向波动幅度。这是对波动空间的估算，而非对方向的预测。
期权隐含波动幅度约为 ±2.4% (区间 83.58–87.61) 由 Sep 18, 2026. ATM 跨式组合: 2.02 @ 行权价 85.5 · ATM IV: 13.9%.
概率分布
模型与假设 →该曲线显示以当前隐含波动率为输入的对数正态模型对本到期日结果区间的估计，阴影部分为预期波动区间。
| 级别 | vs 价格 | P(上涨)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(下跌) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 77.04 | -10% | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| 81.32 | -5% | 96.0% | 4.0% |
| 85.59 | -0% | 49.5% | 50.5% |
| 89.87 | +5% | 4.6% | 95.4% |
| 94.15 | +10% | 0.1% | 99.9% |
模型估算的标的在到期时收于各价位上方/下方的概率——基于既定假设的估算，非预测。
概率探索工具
拖动滑块至任意价位，查看模型估算的股票在所选到期日收于该价位上方或下方的概率。
期限: Sep 18, 2026 · 对数正态模型，零漂移——仅为估算，非预测。 假设条件
到期日
打开期权链 →| 到期时间 | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | 隐含涨跌幅 | ATM IV | 未平仓量 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 04, 2026 | 2 | ±1.0% | 16.5% | 17.7K |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 9 | ±1.7% | 13.6% | 11.8K |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 16 | ±2.4% | 13.9% | 145.0K |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 23 | ±3.0% | 13.9% | 2,562 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | 30 | ±3.4% | 14.3% | 4,454 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | 37 | ±3.8% | 14.6% | 525 |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 44 | ±4.2% | 15.0% | 15.1K |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 79 | ±5.8% | 15.5% | 99 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 107 | ±6.9% | 15.8% | 170.9K |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 135 | ±7.7% | 15.7% | 72.9K |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 198 | ±9.6% | 16.1% | 34.4K |
各行权价未平仓量 — Sep 18
期权头寸集中分布的位置。青色柱为 call，红色柱为 put；虚线为当前价格。
未平仓量最集中的头寸（所有到期日 ≤ 60天）： 85 P · 20.9K80 P · 16.2K84 P · 15.4K83 P · 15.3K86 C · 13.9K
历史记录
完整历史数据 →每个交易日，我们在结果揭晓前记录期权市场对各到期日的定价。随着到期日陆续结算，本栏目将对预期与实际进行比对——记录一经生成，绝不改写。 记录起始日期：2026 年 8 月 31 日。
关于 State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF
The State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) aims to replicate the overall return, including price movement and dividend income, of the Consumer Staples Select Sector Index, prior to accounting for expenses. This benchmark effectively reflects the performance of companies within the consumer staples sector of the S&P 500. The ETF offers focused investment in U.S.-based firms involved in essential goods industries, specifically those in consumer staples distribution and retail, household items, food, beverages, tobacco, and personal hygiene products. This structure enables investors to establish precise strategic or short-term tactical allocations, providing a more granular focus than broader, style-based investment vehicles.
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