Valero Energy Corporation (VLO)
Overview · Option chain · Volatility · Expected-move history · Earnings
Cboe delayed options data · as of 18:46 UTC · Figures derived from the full chain (2,090 contracts, 15 expirations) · IV own-history percentile appears after 60 recorded days (29 so far)
Expected move · Nov 20, 2026 (31 days)
Methodology →Read from option prices: the at-the-money straddle costs this much, so the market is pricing a move of about that size in either direction by this date. It is an estimate of movement, not a prediction of direction.
Options are pricing a move of about ±12.6% (range 379.47–489.27) by Nov 20, 2026. ATM straddle: 54.90 @ strike 435 · ATM IV: 54.0%.
Probability distribution
Model & assumptions →The curve shows where a lognormal model, fed with current implied volatility, puts the range of outcomes at this expiration. Shaded: the expected-move band.
| Level | vs price | P(above)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(below) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 390.93 | -10% | 72.3% | 27.7% |
| 412.65 | -5% | 59.8% | 40.2% |
| 434.37 | +0% | 46.9% | 53.1% |
| 456.09 | +5% | 34.9% | 65.1% |
| 477.81 | +10% | 24.7% | 75.3% |
Model-estimated probabilities of finishing above/below each level at expiration: estimates under stated assumptions, not predictions.
Probability explorer
Drag the slider to any level and see the model-estimated chance the stock finishes above or below it at the selected expiration.
Horizon: Nov 20, 2026 · lognormal model with zero drift: an estimate, not a prediction. Assumptions
Expirations
Open the chain →| Expires | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | Implied move | ATM IV | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | 3 | ±5.5% | 74.6% | 9,613 |
| Oct 30, 2026 | 10 | ±7.8% | 58.7% | 5,047 |
| Nov 06, 2026 | 17 | ±9.7% | 56.2% | 1,630 |
| Nov 13, 2026 | 24 | ±11.3% | 55.3% | 672 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 31 | ±12.6% | 54.0% | 17.0K |
| Nov 27, 2026 | 38 | ±13.5% | 52.5% | 944 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 59 | ±16.5% | 51.7% | 58.6K |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 87 | ±19.7% | 50.8% | 34.5K |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 150 | ±26.1% | 51.8% | 8,275 |
Open interest by strike · Nov 20
Where option positions are concentrated. Teal bars are calls, red bars are puts; the dashed line is the current price.
Largest open-interest concentrations (all expirations ≤ 60 days): 320 P · 16.1K400 P · 6,989320 C · 4,620390 C · 4,366410 P · 3,346
IV term structure
Volatility page →At-the-money implied volatility for each expiration. A hump around a date often marks a scheduled event the market is pricing.
When does open interest expire?
Implied vs realized volatility
HV from our stored daily closes (annualized); IV30 interpolated from the chain. Method
Price, last 60 sessions
Daily closes; Financial Modeling Prep.
Track record
Full history →Of 121 recorded snapshot-versus-outcome comparisons so far, the close landed inside the expected range 53.7% of the time.
Past earnings reactions
Avg |reaction| 2.7% · median 1.8% (20 reports). Two-session close-to-close window; definition
About Valero Energy Corporation
Valero Energy Corporation functions as a global producer and marketer of transportation fuels and petrochemicals, with operations spanning the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Ireland, and other international territories. The company organizes its business across three primary divisions: Refining, Renewable Diesel, and Ethanol. Its Refining segment generates a wide array of products, including various types of gasoline (conventional, premium, reformulated, and California Air Resources Board-compliant), diverse diesel fuels (low-sulfur, ultra-low-sulfur, and CARB diesel), jet fuels, blendstocks, asphalts, petrochemicals, and lubricants. This division also handles the sale of lube oils and natural gas liquids. As of the end of 2021, Valero managed 15 petroleum refineries, boasting a combined daily processing capacity of approximately 3.2 million barrels of crude oil. The Ethanol division comprises 12 plants, capable of producing around 1.6 billion gallons of ethanol annually. These facilities also yield co-products such as dry distiller grains, syrup, and inedible corn oil, which are largely supplied to animal feed markets. Valero distributes its refined goods through whole
Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · NYSE · Profile: Financial Modeling Prep
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