The Travelers Companies, Inc. (TRV)
Overview · Option chain · Volatility · Expected-move history · Earnings
Cboe delayed options data · as of 09:44 UTC · Figures derived from the full chain (686 contracts, 9 expirations) · IV own-history percentile appears after 60 recorded days (29 so far)
Expected move · Nov 20, 2026 (31 days)
Methodology →Read from option prices: the at-the-money straddle costs this much, so the market is pricing a move of about that size in either direction by this date. It is an estimate of movement, not a prediction of direction.
Options are pricing a move of about ±5.4% (range 364.60–406.30) by Nov 20, 2026. ATM straddle: 20.85 @ strike 390 · ATM IV: 22.4%.
Probability distribution
Model & assumptions →The curve shows where a lognormal model, fed with current implied volatility, puts the range of outcomes at this expiration. Shaded: the expected-move band.
| Level | vs price | P(above)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(below) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 346.90 | -10% | 94.3% | 5.7% |
| 366.18 | -5% | 77.4% | 22.6% |
| 385.45 | +0% | 48.7% | 51.3% |
| 404.72 | +5% | 21.8% | 78.2% |
| 424.00 | +10% | 6.8% | 93.2% |
Model-estimated probabilities of finishing above/below each level at expiration: estimates under stated assumptions, not predictions.
Probability explorer
Drag the slider to any level and see the model-estimated chance the stock finishes above or below it at the selected expiration.
Horizon: Nov 20, 2026 · lognormal model with zero drift: an estimate, not a prediction. Assumptions
Expirations
Open the chain →| Expires | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | Implied move | ATM IV | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 20, 2026 | 31 | ±5.4% | 22.4% | 1,524 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 59 | ±7.1% | 21.7% | 125 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 87 | ±8.5% | 21.3% | 6,781 |
| Apr 16, 2027 | 178 | ±12.9% | 22.9% | 148 |
Open interest by strike · Nov 20
Where option positions are concentrated. Teal bars are calls, red bars are puts; the dashed line is the current price.
Largest open-interest concentrations (all expirations ≤ 60 days): 410 C · 386380 C · 139400 C · 129390 C · 122340 P · 83
IV term structure
Volatility page →At-the-money implied volatility for each expiration. A hump around a date often marks a scheduled event the market is pricing.
When does open interest expire?
Implied vs realized volatility
HV from our stored daily closes (annualized); IV30 interpolated from the chain. Method
Price, last 60 sessions
Daily closes; Financial Modeling Prep.
Track record
Full history →Of 43 recorded snapshot-versus-outcome comparisons so far, the close landed inside the expected range 74.4% of the time.
Past earnings reactions
Avg |reaction| 3.7% · median 3.2% (22 reports). Two-session close-to-close window; definition
About The Travelers Companies, Inc.
The Travelers Companies, Inc., through its network of subsidiaries, delivers a broad spectrum of commercial and personal property and casualty insurance products and services. These offerings cater to businesses, government entities, associations, and individual clients both within the United States and internationally. The company's operations are divided into three primary segments: Business Insurance, Bond & Specialty Insurance, and Personal Insurance. The Business Insurance segment provides a comprehensive portfolio of commercial coverages, ranging from foundational offerings like workers' compensation, commercial auto, property, general liability, multi-peril, and employers' liability, to more specialized policies. These specialized offerings include public and product liability, professional indemnity, marine, aviation, onshore and offshore energy, construction, terrorism, personal accident, and even kidnap and ransom insurance. This segment serves a diverse clientele, from small and mid-sized enterprises to large corporations, and also focuses on sectors like commercial trucking and agriculture. Its products are distributed through a robust network of independent brokers, wh
Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty · NYSE · Profile: Financial Modeling Prep
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