iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT · ETF)
Overview · Option chain · Volatility · Expected-move history
Cboe delayed options data · as of 03:38 UTC · Figures derived from the full chain (2,414 contracts, 29 expirations) · IV own-history percentile appears after 60 recorded days (4 so far)
Expected move — Sep 18, 2026 (15 days)
Methodology →Read from option prices: the at-the-money straddle costs this much, so the market is pricing a move of about that size in either direction by this date. It is an estimate of movement, not a prediction of direction.
Options are pricing a move of about ±1.7% (range 80.74–83.54) by Sep 18, 2026. ATM straddle: 1.40 @ strike 82 · ATM IV: 10.3%.
Probability distribution
Model & assumptions →The curve shows where a lognormal model, fed with current implied volatility, puts the range of outcomes at this expiration. Shaded: the expected-move band.
| Level | vs price | P(above)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(below) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 73.93 | -10% | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| 78.03 | -5% | 99.3% | 0.7% |
| 82.14 | +0% | 49.6% | 50.4% |
| 86.25 | +5% | 1.0% | 99.0% |
| 90.35 | +10% | 0.0% | 100.0% |
Model-estimated probabilities of finishing above/below each level at expiration — estimates under stated assumptions, not predictions.
Probability explorer
Drag the slider to any level and see the model-estimated chance the stock finishes above or below it at the selected expiration.
Horizon: Sep 18, 2026 · lognormal model, zero drift — an estimate, not a prediction. Assumptions
Expirations
Open the chain →| Expires | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | Implied move | ATM IV | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 04, 2026 | 1 | ±0.6% | 13.8% | 307.7K |
| Sep 09, 2026 | 6 | ±0.9% | 8.9% | 50.3K |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 8 | ±1.2% | 10.0% | 164.1K |
| Sep 14, 2026 | 11 | ±1.3% | 9.3% | 46.7K |
| Sep 16, 2026 | 13 | ±1.5% | 10.1% | 17.4K |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 15 | ±1.7% | 10.3% | 1.52M |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 22 | ±2.1% | 10.3% | 96.7K |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 27 | ±2.3% | 10.3% | 295.2K |
| Oct 02, 2026 | 29 | ±2.5% | 10.5% | 46.5K |
| Oct 09, 2026 | 36 | ±2.7% | 10.6% | 14.7K |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 43 | ±3.0% | 10.7% | 1.21M |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 50 | ±3.2% | 10.7% | 0 |
Open interest by strike — Sep 18
Where option positions are concentrated. Teal bars are calls, red bars are puts; the dashed line is the current price.
Largest open-interest concentrations (all expirations ≤ 60 days): 84 C · 265.5K83 C · 252.1K85 C · 213.9K80 P · 192.6K81 P · 190.9K
IV term structure
Volatility page →At-the-money implied volatility for each expiration. A hump around a date often marks a scheduled event the market is pricing.
When does open interest expire?
Implied vs realized volatility
HV from our stored daily closes (annualized); IV30 interpolated from the chain. Method
Price, last 60 sessions
Track record
Full history →Of 4 recorded snapshot-versus-outcome comparisons so far, the close landed inside the expected range 100.0% of the time.
About iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Providing exposure to long-term government debt, the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF aims to replicate the performance of an index. This benchmark index is comprised exclusively of U.S. Treasury securities with maturities extending beyond two decades.
ETF · Asset Management - Bonds · NASDAQ · Profile: Financial Modeling Prep
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