State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY · ETF)
Cboe delayed options data · 截至 13:03 UTC · 基于完整期权链衍生的数据 (12.5K 合约, 33 到期日) · IV自身历史百分位在记录满60天后显示 (4 迄今为止)
预期涨跌幅 — Sep 18, 2026 (14 天)
方法论 →从期权价格中读取：平值跨式期权的成本即为市场在此日期前预计的双向波动幅度。这是对波动空间的估算，而非对方向的预测。
期权隐含波动幅度约为 ±1.9% (区间 756.41–785.83) 由 Sep 18, 2026. ATM 跨式组合: 14.71 @ 行权价 771 · ATM IV: 11.1%.
概率分布
模型与假设 →该曲线显示以当前隐含波动率为输入的对数正态模型对本到期日结果区间的估计，阴影部分为预期波动区间。
| 级别 | vs 价格 | P(上涨)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(下跌) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 694.01 | -10% | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| 732.56 | -5% | 99.0% | 1.0% |
| 771.12 | +0% | 49.6% | 50.4% |
| 809.68 | +5% | 1.2% | 98.8% |
| 848.23 | +10% | 0.0% | 100.0% |
模型估算的标的在到期时收于各价位上方/下方的概率——基于既定假设的估算，非预测。
概率探索工具
拖动滑块至任意价位，查看模型估算的股票在所选到期日收于该价位上方或下方的概率。
期限: Sep 18, 2026 · 对数正态模型，零漂移——仅为估算，非预测。 假设条件
到期日
打开期权链 →| 到期时间 | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | 隐含涨跌幅 | ATM IV | 未平仓量 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 04, 2026 | 0 | ±0.6% | 12.2% | 937.2K |
| Sep 08, 2026 | 4 | ±0.8% | 8.0% | 162.0K |
| Sep 09, 2026 | 5 | ±0.9% | 8.6% | 113.9K |
| Sep 10, 2026 | 6 | ±1.0% | 9.2% | 71.6K |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 7 | ±1.2% | 10.2% | 512.1K |
| Sep 14, 2026 | 10 | ±1.4% | 9.7% | 32.6K |
| Sep 15, 2026 | 11 | ±1.5% | 10.0% | 43.7K |
| Sep 16, 2026 | 12 | ±1.7% | 10.8% | 6,190 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | 13 | ±1.8% | 11.1% | 7,252 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 14 | ±1.9% | 11.1% | 4.37M |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 21 | ±2.3% | 11.3% | 151.0K |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 26 | ±2.5% | 11.4% | 1.53M |
各行权价未平仓量 — Sep 18
期权头寸集中分布的位置。青色柱为 call，红色柱为 put；虚线为当前价格。
未平仓量最集中的头寸（所有到期日 ≤ 60天）： 525 P · 513.3K535 P · 305.1K625 P · 298.5K425 P · 258.9K520 P · 214.4K
历史记录
完整历史数据 →共 6 迄今已记录的快照与结果对比中，收盘价落在预期区间内的占 83.3% 的时间。
关于 State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF
SPY is the best-recognized and oldest US listed ETF and typically tops rankings for largest AUM and greatest trading volume. The fund tracks the massively popular US index, the S&P 500. Few realize that S&P's index committee chooses 500 securities to represent the US large-cap space - not necessarily the 500 largest by market cap, which can lead to some omissions of single names. Still, the index offers outstanding exposure to the US large-cap space. It's important to note, SPY is a unit investment trust, an older but entirely viable structure. As a UIT, SPY must fully replicate its index (it probably would anyway) and forgo the small risk and reward of securities lending. It also can`t reinvest portfolio dividends between distributions, the resulting cash drag will slightly hurt performance in up markets and help in downtrends. SPY is a favored vanilla trading vehicle.
ETF · Asset Management · AMEX · 公司简介：Financial Modeling Prep