State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY · ETF)
Overview · Option chain · Volatility · Expected-move history
Cboe delayed options data · as of 09:43 UTC · Figures derived from the full chain (12.7K contracts, 33 expirations) · IV own-history percentile appears after 60 recorded days (29 so far)
Expected move · Nov 20, 2026 (31 days)
Methodology →Read from option prices: the at-the-money straddle costs this much, so the market is pricing a move of about that size in either direction by this date. It is an estimate of movement, not a prediction of direction.
Options are pricing a move of about ±3.4% (range 739.98–792.16) by Nov 20, 2026. ATM straddle: 26.09 @ strike 766 · ATM IV: 14.2%.
Probability distribution
Model & assumptions →The curve shows where a lognormal model, fed with current implied volatility, puts the range of outcomes at this expiration. Shaded: the expected-move band.
| Level | vs price | P(above)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(below) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 689.46 | -10% | 99.4% | 0.6% |
| 727.77 | -5% | 88.9% | 11.1% |
| 766.07 | +0% | 49.2% | 50.8% |
| 804.37 | +5% | 11.5% | 88.5% |
| 842.68 | +10% | 1.0% | 99.0% |
Model-estimated probabilities of finishing above/below each level at expiration: estimates under stated assumptions, not predictions.
Probability explorer
Drag the slider to any level and see the model-estimated chance the stock finishes above or below it at the selected expiration.
Horizon: Nov 20, 2026 · lognormal model with zero drift: an estimate, not a prediction. Assumptions
Expirations
Open the chain →| Expires | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | Implied move | ATM IV | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20, 2026 | 0 | ±0.6% | 13.4% | 465.3K |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 1 | ±0.8% | 14.1% | 307.5K |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 2 | ±1.0% | 14.3% | 166.9K |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 3 | ±1.2% | 14.5% | 859.8K |
| Oct 26, 2026 | 6 | ±1.4% | 12.5% | 131.2K |
| Oct 27, 2026 | 7 | ±1.5% | 12.7% | 66.3K |
| Oct 28, 2026 | 8 | ±1.7% | 13.7% | 69.5K |
| Oct 29, 2026 | 9 | ±1.9% | 14.2% | 42.1K |
| Oct 30, 2026 | 10 | ±2.0% | 14.3% | 1.99M |
| Nov 02, 2026 | 13 | ±2.2% | 13.7% | 8,842 |
| Nov 03, 2026 | 14 | — | — | 0 |
| Nov 06, 2026 | 17 | ±2.6% | 14.3% | 257.3K |
Open interest by strike · Nov 20
Where option positions are concentrated. Teal bars are calls, red bars are puts; the dashed line is the current price.
Largest open-interest concentrations (all expirations ≤ 60 days): 500 P · 343.9K480 P · 321.2K510 P · 251.7K570 P · 241.8K760 P · 237.1K
IV term structure
Volatility page →At-the-money implied volatility for each expiration. A hump around a date often marks a scheduled event the market is pricing.
When does open interest expire?
Implied vs realized volatility
HV from our stored daily closes (annualized); IV30 interpolated from the chain. Method
Price, last 60 sessions
Daily closes; Financial Modeling Prep.
Track record
Full history →Of 336 recorded snapshot-versus-outcome comparisons so far, the close landed inside the expected range 75.6% of the time.
About State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF
SPY is the best-recognized and oldest US listed ETF and typically tops rankings for largest AUM and greatest trading volume. The fund tracks the massively popular US index, the S&P 500. Few realize that S&P's index committee chooses 500 securities to represent the US large-cap space - not necessarily the 500 largest by market cap, which can lead to some omissions of single names. Still, the index offers outstanding exposure to the US large-cap space. It's important to note, SPY is a unit investment trust, an older but entirely viable structure. As a UIT, SPY must fully replicate its index (it probably would anyway) and forgo the small risk and reward of securities lending. It also can`t reinvest portfolio dividends between distributions, the resulting cash drag will slightly hurt performance in up markets and help in downtrends. SPY is a favored vanilla trading vehicle.
ETF · Asset Management · AMEX · Profile: Financial Modeling Prep
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