State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY · ETF)
Overview · Option chain · Volatility · Expected-move history
Cboe delayed options data · as of 09:38 UTC · Figures derived from the full chain (12.5K contracts, 34 expirations) · IV own-history percentile appears after 60 recorded days (3 so far)
Expected move — Sep 18, 2026 (15 days)
Methodology →Read from option prices: the at-the-money straddle costs this much, so the market is pricing a move of about that size in either direction by this date. It is an estimate of movement, not a prediction of direction.
Options are pricing a move of about ±2.1% (range 749.59–782.36) by Sep 18, 2026. ATM straddle: 16.39 @ strike 766 · ATM IV: 11.7%.
Probability distribution
Model & assumptions →The curve shows where a lognormal model, fed with current implied volatility, puts the range of outcomes at this expiration. Shaded: the expected-move band.
| Level | vs price | P(above)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(below) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 689.37 | -10% | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| 727.67 | -5% | 98.4% | 1.6% |
| 765.97 | +0% | 49.5% | 50.5% |
| 804.27 | +5% | 2.0% | 98.0% |
| 842.57 | +10% | 0.0% | 100.0% |
Model-estimated probabilities of finishing above/below each level at expiration — estimates under stated assumptions, not predictions.
Probability explorer
Drag the slider to any level and see the model-estimated chance the stock finishes above or below it at the selected expiration.
Horizon: Sep 18, 2026 · lognormal model, zero drift — an estimate, not a prediction. Assumptions
Expirations
Open the chain →| Expires | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | Implied move | ATM IV | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 03, 2026 | 0 | ±0.5% | 11.8% | 281.8K |
| Sep 04, 2026 | 1 | ±0.7% | 12.2% | 789.3K |
| Sep 08, 2026 | 5 | ±1.0% | 9.3% | 114.8K |
| Sep 09, 2026 | 6 | ±1.1% | 10.3% | 72.5K |
| Sep 10, 2026 | 7 | ±1.2% | 10.6% | 42.6K |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 8 | ±1.3% | 10.3% | 483.5K |
| Sep 14, 2026 | 11 | ±1.5% | 10.4% | 21.1K |
| Sep 15, 2026 | 12 | ±1.5% | 10.2% | 30.2K |
| Sep 16, 2026 | 13 | ±1.9% | 11.9% | 2,547 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | 14 | — | — | 0 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 15 | ±2.1% | 11.7% | 4.30M |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 22 | ±2.4% | 12.0% | 133.2K |
Open interest by strike — Sep 18
Where option positions are concentrated. Teal bars are calls, red bars are puts; the dashed line is the current price.
Largest open-interest concentrations (all expirations ≤ 60 days): 525 P · 513.3K535 P · 305.1K625 P · 298.4K425 P · 258.9K520 P · 214.4K
IV term structure
Volatility page →At-the-money implied volatility for each expiration. A hump around a date often marks a scheduled event the market is pricing.
When does open interest expire?
Implied vs realized volatility
HV from our stored daily closes (annualized); IV30 interpolated from the chain. Method
Price, last 60 sessions
Track record
Full history →Of 3 recorded snapshot-versus-outcome comparisons so far, the close landed inside the expected range 66.7% of the time.
About State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF
SPY is the best-recognized and oldest US listed ETF and typically tops rankings for largest AUM and greatest trading volume. The fund tracks the massively popular US index, the S&P 500. Few realize that S&P's index committee chooses 500 securities to represent the US large-cap space - not necessarily the 500 largest by market cap, which can lead to some omissions of single names. Still, the index offers outstanding exposure to the US large-cap space. It's important to note, SPY is a unit investment trust, an older but entirely viable structure. As a UIT, SPY must fully replicate its index (it probably would anyway) and forgo the small risk and reward of securities lending. It also can`t reinvest portfolio dividends between distributions, the resulting cash drag will slightly hurt performance in up markets and help in downtrends. SPY is a favored vanilla trading vehicle.
ETF · Asset Management · AMEX · Profile: Financial Modeling Prep
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