Spotify Technology S.A. (SPOT)
Overview · Option chain · Volatility · Expected-move history · Earnings
Cboe delayed options data · as of 00:44 UTC · Figures derived from the full chain (2,292 contracts, 16 expirations) · IV own-history percentile appears after 60 recorded days (29 so far)
Expected move · Oct 30, 2026 (11 days)
Methodology →Read from option prices: the at-the-money straddle costs this much, so the market is pricing a move of about that size in either direction by this date. It is an estimate of movement, not a prediction of direction.
Options are pricing a move of about ±10.1% (range 466.44–571.09) by Oct 30, 2026. ATM straddle: 52.33 @ strike 520 · ATM IV: 72.6%.
Probability distribution
Model & assumptions →The curve shows where a lognormal model, fed with current implied volatility, puts the range of outcomes at this expiration. Shaded: the expected-move band.
| Level | vs price | P(above)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(below) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 466.88 | -10% | 78.0% | 22.0% |
| 492.82 | -5% | 63.4% | 36.6% |
| 518.76 | +0% | 47.5% | 52.5% |
| 544.70 | +5% | 32.6% | 67.4% |
| 570.64 | +10% | 20.6% | 79.4% |
Model-estimated probabilities of finishing above/below each level at expiration: estimates under stated assumptions, not predictions.
Probability explorer
Drag the slider to any level and see the model-estimated chance the stock finishes above or below it at the selected expiration.
Horizon: Oct 30, 2026 · lognormal model with zero drift: an estimate, not a prediction. Assumptions
Expirations
Open the chain →| Expires | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | Implied move | ATM IV | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | 4 | ±9.2% | 109.6% | 12.6K |
| Oct 30, 2026 | 11 | ±10.1% | 72.6% | 7,948 |
| Nov 06, 2026 | 18 | ±11.0% | 62.0% | 1,579 |
| Nov 13, 2026 | 25 | ±11.7% | 55.8% | 604 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 32 | ±12.2% | 51.8% | 5,280 |
| Nov 27, 2026 | 39 | ±12.8% | 49.3% | 501 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 60 | ±14.8% | 45.7% | 17.7K |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 88 | ±16.8% | 42.8% | 21.6K |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 151 | ±22.6% | 44.2% | 6,297 |
| Apr 16, 2027 | 179 | ±24.1% | 43.2% | 2,139 |
Open interest by strike · Oct 30
Where option positions are concentrated. Teal bars are calls, red bars are puts; the dashed line is the current price.
Largest open-interest concentrations (all expirations ≤ 60 days): 575 C · 2,734410 P · 1,981500 P · 1,607550 C · 1,225470 P · 1,146
IV term structure
Volatility page →At-the-money implied volatility for each expiration. A hump around a date often marks a scheduled event the market is pricing.
When does open interest expire?
Implied vs realized volatility
HV from our stored daily closes (annualized); IV30 interpolated from the chain. Method
Price, last 60 sessions
Daily closes; Financial Modeling Prep.
Track record
Full history →Of 121 recorded snapshot-versus-outcome comparisons so far, the close landed inside the expected range 58.7% of the time.
Past earnings reactions
Avg |reaction| 9.6% · median 9.6% (20 reports). Two-session close-to-close window; definition
About Spotify Technology S.A.
Spotify Technology S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides audio streaming subscription services worldwide. It operates in two segments, Premium and Ad-Supported. The Premium segment offers online and offline streaming access to its catalog of music and podcasts, including video, lossless music, and audiobooks in select markets through subscription offerings primarily sold directly to end users and partners. The Ad-Supported segment provides limited on-demand online access to its catalog of music and online and offline access to its catalog of podcasts on computers, tablets, mobile devices, and other smart devices. The company also offers sales, distribution and marketing, contract research and development, and customer and other support services. Spotify Technology S.A. was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.
Communication Services · Internet Content & Information · NYSE · Profile: Financial Modeling Prep
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