Spotify Technology S.A. (SPOT)
Overview · Option chain · Volatility · Expected-move history · Earnings
Cboe delayed options data · as of 00:38 UTC · Figures derived from the full chain (2,262 contracts, 16 expirations) · IV own-history percentile appears after 60 recorded days (4 so far)
Expected move — Sep 18, 2026 (15 days)
Methodology →Read from option prices: the at-the-money straddle costs this much, so the market is pricing a move of about that size in either direction by this date. It is an estimate of movement, not a prediction of direction.
Options are pricing a move of about ±5.7% (range 532.23–596.38) by Sep 18, 2026. ATM straddle: 32.08 @ strike 565 · ATM IV: 34.9%.
Probability distribution
Model & assumptions →The curve shows where a lognormal model, fed with current implied volatility, puts the range of outcomes at this expiration. Shaded: the expected-move band.
| Level | vs price | P(above)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(below) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 507.87 | -10% | 92.7% | 7.3% |
| 536.08 | -5% | 75.5% | 24.5% |
| 564.30 | +0% | 48.6% | 51.4% |
| 592.51 | +5% | 23.4% | 76.6% |
| 620.73 | +10% | 8.3% | 91.7% |
Model-estimated probabilities of finishing above/below each level at expiration — estimates under stated assumptions, not predictions.
Probability explorer
Drag the slider to any level and see the model-estimated chance the stock finishes above or below it at the selected expiration.
Horizon: Sep 18, 2026 · lognormal model, zero drift — an estimate, not a prediction. Assumptions
Expirations
Open the chain →| Expires | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | Implied move | ATM IV | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 04, 2026 | 1 | ±1.9% | 43.7% | 9,539 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 8 | ±4.0% | 33.9% | 3,181 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 15 | ±5.7% | 34.9% | 28.3K |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 22 | ±7.0% | 35.5% | 1,369 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | 29 | ±7.7% | 34.1% | 2,161 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | 36 | ±9.1% | 36.0% | 535 |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 43 | ±9.9% | 36.0% | 15.5K |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 50 | ±10.8% | 36.6% | 0 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 106 | ±17.6% | 40.8% | 14.9K |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 134 | ±19.5% | 40.4% | 19.6K |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 197 | ±24.8% | 42.6% | 3,785 |
Open interest by strike — Sep 18
Where option positions are concentrated. Teal bars are calls, red bars are puts; the dashed line is the current price.
Largest open-interest concentrations (all expirations ≤ 60 days): 600 C · 3,771580 C · 3,270460 P · 2,536350 P · 2,129540 C · 1,999
IV term structure
Volatility page →At-the-money implied volatility for each expiration. A hump around a date often marks a scheduled event the market is pricing.
When does open interest expire?
Implied vs realized volatility
HV from our stored daily closes (annualized); IV30 interpolated from the chain. Method
Price, last 60 sessions
Track record
Full history →Every trading day we record what the options market is pricing for each expiration — before the outcome is known. Once expirations start resolving, this section compares expected versus actual, and the record is never rewritten. Recording since Aug 31, 2026.
Past earnings reactions
Avg |reaction| 9.6% · median 9.6% (20 reports) — two-session close-to-close window; definition
About Spotify Technology S.A.
Spotify Technology S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides audio streaming subscription services worldwide. It operates in two segments, Premium and Ad-Supported. The Premium segment offers online and offline streaming access to its catalog of music and podcasts, including video, lossless music, and audiobooks in select markets through subscription offerings primarily sold directly to end users and partners. The Ad-Supported segment provides limited on-demand online access to its catalog of music and online and offline access to its catalog of podcasts on computers, tablets, mobile devices, and other smart devices. The company also offers sales, distribution and marketing, contract research and development, and customer and other support services. Spotify Technology S.A. was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.
Communication Services · Internet Content & Information · NYSE · Profile: Financial Modeling Prep
Related securities — Communication Services
META · IV 34.7%GOOGL · IV 26.9%NFLX · IV 30.4%TTD · IV 57.7%SNAP · IV 54.7%WBD · IV 36.9%