Rio Tinto Group (RIO)
Overview · Option chain · Volatility · Expected-move history · Earnings
Cboe delayed options data · as of 00:43 UTC · Figures derived from the full chain (518 contracts, 9 expirations) · IV own-history percentile appears after 60 recorded days (29 so far)
Expected move · Nov 20, 2026 (32 days)
Methodology →Read from option prices: the at-the-money straddle costs this much, so the market is pricing a move of about that size in either direction by this date. It is an estimate of movement, not a prediction of direction.
Options are pricing a move of about ±7.1% (range 83.42–96.11) by Nov 20, 2026. ATM straddle: 6.35 @ strike 90 · ATM IV: 29.8%.
Probability distribution
Model & assumptions →The curve shows where a lognormal model, fed with current implied volatility, puts the range of outcomes at this expiration. Shaded: the expected-move band.
| Level | vs price | P(above)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(below) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 80.79 | -10% | 87.5% | 12.5% |
| 85.28 | -5% | 70.4% | 29.6% |
| 89.77 | +0% | 48.2% | 51.8% |
| 94.25 | +5% | 27.5% | 72.5% |
| 98.74 | +10% | 13.0% | 87.0% |
Model-estimated probabilities of finishing above/below each level at expiration: estimates under stated assumptions, not predictions.
Probability explorer
Drag the slider to any level and see the model-estimated chance the stock finishes above or below it at the selected expiration.
Horizon: Nov 20, 2026 · lognormal model with zero drift: an estimate, not a prediction. Assumptions
Expirations
Open the chain →| Expires | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | Implied move | ATM IV | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 20, 2026 | 32 | ±7.1% | 29.8% | 10.7K |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 60 | ±9.6% | 29.5% | 24.9K |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 88 | ±11.5% | 29.2% | 41.5K |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 151 | ±16.3% | 30.4% | 7,075 |
| Apr 16, 2027 | 179 | ±17.3% | 30.4% | 645 |
Open interest by strike · Nov 20
Where option positions are concentrated. Teal bars are calls, red bars are puts; the dashed line is the current price.
Largest open-interest concentrations (all expirations ≤ 60 days): 90 P · 5,03185 P · 4,019100 C · 2,524110 C · 2,213115 C · 1,915
IV term structure
Volatility page →At-the-money implied volatility for each expiration. A hump around a date often marks a scheduled event the market is pricing.
When does open interest expire?
Implied vs realized volatility
HV from our stored daily closes (annualized); IV30 interpolated from the chain. Method
Price, last 60 sessions
Daily closes; Financial Modeling Prep.
Track record
Full history →Of 43 recorded snapshot-versus-outcome comparisons so far, the close landed inside the expected range 44.2% of the time.
Past earnings reactions
Avg |reaction| 2.2% · median 1.9% (10 reports). Two-session close-to-close window; definition
About Rio Tinto Group
Rio Tinto Group engages in exploring, mining, and processing mineral resources worldwide. The company operates through Iron Ore; Aluminium and lithium; and Copper segments. The Iron Ore segment engages in the iron ore mining, and salt and gypsum production in Western Australia. The Aluminum and lithium segment is involved in bauxite mining; alumina refining; and aluminium smelting, and recycling, as well as mining and processing of lithium. The Copper segment engages in mining and refining of copper, gold, silver, molybdenum, and other by-products and exploration activities. It also owns and operates open pit and underground mines; and refineries, smelters, processing plants and power, and shipping facilities. The company was founded in 1873 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.
Basic Materials · Industrial Materials · NYSE · Profile: Financial Modeling Prep
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