Phillips 66 (PSX)
Overview · Option chain · Volatility · Expected-move history · Earnings
Cboe delayed options data · as of 18:42 UTC · Figures derived from the full chain (1,700 contracts, 17 expirations) · IV own-history percentile appears after 60 recorded days (28 so far)
Expected move · Nov 20, 2026 (32 days)
Methodology →Read from option prices: the at-the-money straddle costs this much, so the market is pricing a move of about that size in either direction by this date. It is an estimate of movement, not a prediction of direction.
Options are pricing a move of about ±10.6% (range 261.12–322.92) by Nov 20, 2026. ATM straddle: 30.90 @ strike 292.5 · ATM IV: 44.4%.
Probability distribution
Model & assumptions →The curve shows where a lognormal model, fed with current implied volatility, puts the range of outcomes at this expiration. Shaded: the expected-move band.
| Level | vs price | P(above)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(below) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 262.82 | -10% | 76.9% | 23.1% |
| 277.42 | -5% | 62.7% | 37.3% |
| 292.02 | +0% | 47.4% | 52.6% |
| 306.62 | +5% | 33.1% | 66.9% |
| 321.22 | +10% | 21.4% | 78.6% |
Model-estimated probabilities of finishing above/below each level at expiration: estimates under stated assumptions, not predictions.
Probability explorer
Drag the slider to any level and see the model-estimated chance the stock finishes above or below it at the selected expiration.
Horizon: Nov 20, 2026 · lognormal model with zero drift: an estimate, not a prediction. Assumptions
Expirations
Open the chain →| Expires | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | Implied move | ATM IV | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | 4 | ±4.1% | 48.7% | 2,820 |
| Oct 30, 2026 | 11 | ±6.8% | 48.9% | 1,821 |
| Nov 06, 2026 | 18 | ±8.3% | 46.7% | 786 |
| Nov 13, 2026 | 25 | ±9.6% | 45.6% | 387 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 32 | ±10.6% | 44.4% | 13.2K |
| Nov 27, 2026 | 39 | ±11.4% | 43.8% | 121 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 60 | ±14.1% | 43.9% | 14.9K |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 88 | ±17.0% | 43.6% | 18.1K |
| Feb 19, 2027 | 123 | ±20.2% | 43.9% | 2,760 |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 151 | ±22.2% | 43.8% | 3,934 |
Open interest by strike · Nov 20
Where option positions are concentrated. Teal bars are calls, red bars are puts; the dashed line is the current price.
Largest open-interest concentrations (all expirations ≤ 60 days): 210 P · 2,871220 P · 2,206280 C · 1,998220 C · 1,843290 C · 1,802
IV term structure
Volatility page →At-the-money implied volatility for each expiration. A hump around a date often marks a scheduled event the market is pricing.
When does open interest expire?
Implied vs realized volatility
HV from our stored daily closes (annualized); IV30 interpolated from the chain. Method
Price, last 60 sessions
Daily closes; Financial Modeling Prep.
Track record
Full history →Of 93 recorded snapshot-versus-outcome comparisons so far, the close landed inside the expected range 81.7% of the time.
Past earnings reactions
Avg |reaction| 2.9% · median 2.4% (20 reports). Two-session close-to-close window; definition
About Phillips 66
Phillips 66 operates as a diversified energy company, specializing in both manufacturing and logistics. Its comprehensive business model is structured across four primary segments: Midstream, Chemicals, Refining, and Marketing & Specialties (M&S). The Midstream division manages the vital infrastructure for transporting and processing various energy commodities. This includes moving crude oil and other feedstocks, delivering refined petroleum products to market, offering terminaling and storage solutions, and handling natural gas liquids (NGLs) through processes like transportation, storage, fractionation, export, and marketing. It also provides fee-based processing services and oversees the gathering, processing, transportation, and marketing of natural gas. The Chemicals segment is dedicated to the production and distribution of a broad spectrum of chemical products. This encompasses olefins like ethylene, aromatics and styrenics such as benzene, cyclohexane, styrene, and polystyrene, alongside various specialty chemicals. These specialty products include organosulfur compounds, solvents, catalysts, and chemicals utilized in drilling and mining operations. Through its Refining seg
Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · NYSE · Profile: Financial Modeling Prep
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