iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB · ETF)
Overview · Option chain · Volatility · Expected-move history
Cboe delayed options data · as of 03:38 UTC · Figures derived from the full chain (574 contracts, 7 expirations) · IV own-history percentile appears after 60 recorded days (29 so far)
Expected move · Nov 20, 2026 (32 days)
Methodology →Read from option prices: the at-the-money straddle costs this much, so the market is pricing a move of about that size in either direction by this date. It is an estimate of movement, not a prediction of direction.
Options are pricing a move of about ±7.8% (range 78.31–91.56) by Nov 20, 2026. ATM straddle: 6.62 @ strike 85 · ATM IV: 32.5%.
Probability distribution
Model & assumptions →The curve shows where a lognormal model, fed with current implied volatility, puts the range of outcomes at this expiration. Shaded: the expected-move band.
| Level | vs price | P(above)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(below) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 76.45 | -10% | 85.2% | 14.8% |
| 80.69 | -5% | 68.6% | 31.4% |
| 84.94 | +0% | 48.1% | 51.9% |
| 89.19 | +5% | 28.9% | 71.1% |
| 93.43 | +10% | 15.0% | 85.0% |
Model-estimated probabilities of finishing above/below each level at expiration: estimates under stated assumptions, not predictions.
Probability explorer
Drag the slider to any level and see the model-estimated chance the stock finishes above or below it at the selected expiration.
Horizon: Nov 20, 2026 · lognormal model with zero drift: an estimate, not a prediction. Assumptions
Expirations
Open the chain →| Expires | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | Implied move | ATM IV | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 20, 2026 | 32 | ±7.8% | 32.5% | 22.8K |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 60 | ±11.2% | 34.1% | 159 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 88 | ±12.2% | 31.1% | 29.4K |
| Apr 16, 2027 | 179 | ±17.4% | 31.0% | 1,705 |
Open interest by strike · Nov 20
Where option positions are concentrated. Teal bars are calls, red bars are puts; the dashed line is the current price.
Largest open-interest concentrations (all expirations ≤ 60 days): 79 P · 8,30285 P · 5,04688 C · 1,99784 P · 1,21992 C · 1,203
IV term structure
Volatility page →At-the-money implied volatility for each expiration. A hump around a date often marks a scheduled event the market is pricing.
When does open interest expire?
Implied vs realized volatility
HV from our stored daily closes (annualized); IV30 interpolated from the chain. Method
Price, last 60 sessions
Daily closes; Financial Modeling Prep.
Track record
Full history →Of 43 recorded snapshot-versus-outcome comparisons so far, the close landed inside the expected range 79.1% of the time.
About iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF
The iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF, identified by the ticker ITB, endeavors to replicate the financial performance of a benchmark. This benchmark specifically comprises shares of American companies operating within the residential building and development industry.
ETF · Asset Management · CBOE · Profile: Financial Modeling Prep
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