FedEx Corporation (FDX)
Overview · Option chain · Volatility · Expected-move history · Earnings
Cboe delayed options data · as of 06:37 UTC · Figures derived from the full chain (1,208 contracts, 14 expirations) · IV own-history percentile appears after 60 recorded days (29 so far)
Expected move · Nov 20, 2026 (31 days)
Methodology →Read from option prices: the at-the-money straddle costs this much, so the market is pricing a move of about that size in either direction by this date. It is an estimate of movement, not a prediction of direction.
Options are pricing a move of about ±8.5% (range 268.70–318.86) by Nov 20, 2026. ATM straddle: 25.07 @ strike 295 · ATM IV: 35.3%.
Probability distribution
Model & assumptions →The curve shows where a lognormal model, fed with current implied volatility, puts the range of outcomes at this expiration. Shaded: the expected-move band.
| Level | vs price | P(above)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(below) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 264.40 | -10% | 83.4% | 16.6% |
| 279.09 | -5% | 67.2% | 32.8% |
| 293.78 | +0% | 47.9% | 52.1% |
| 308.47 | +5% | 30.0% | 70.0% |
| 323.16 | +10% | 16.4% | 83.6% |
Model-estimated probabilities of finishing above/below each level at expiration: estimates under stated assumptions, not predictions.
Probability explorer
Drag the slider to any level and see the model-estimated chance the stock finishes above or below it at the selected expiration.
Horizon: Nov 20, 2026 · lognormal model with zero drift: an estimate, not a prediction. Assumptions
Expirations
Open the chain →| Expires | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | Implied move | ATM IV | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | 3 | ±2.4% | 27.7% | 5,293 |
| Oct 30, 2026 | 10 | ±7.1% | 51.3% | 4,012 |
| Nov 06, 2026 | 17 | ±7.7% | 43.4% | 1,664 |
| Nov 13, 2026 | 24 | ±8.4% | 40.2% | 1,516 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 31 | ±8.5% | 35.3% | 5,122 |
| Nov 27, 2026 | 38 | ±9.2% | 35.0% | 383 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 59 | ±10.3% | 31.5% | 7,090 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 87 | ±12.3% | 31.7% | 6,416 |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 150 | ±16.5% | 32.2% | 3,624 |
| Apr 16, 2027 | 178 | ±17.8% | 32.1% | 285 |
Open interest by strike · Nov 20
Where option positions are concentrated. Teal bars are calls, red bars are puts; the dashed line is the current price.
Largest open-interest concentrations (all expirations ≤ 60 days): 290 P · 2,174330 C · 1,681300 C · 1,404280 P · 1,324310 C · 1,320
IV term structure
Volatility page →At-the-money implied volatility for each expiration. A hump around a date often marks a scheduled event the market is pricing.
When does open interest expire?
Implied vs realized volatility
HV from our stored daily closes (annualized); IV30 interpolated from the chain. Method
Price, last 60 sessions
Daily closes; Financial Modeling Prep.
Track record
Full history →Of 121 recorded snapshot-versus-outcome comparisons so far, the close landed inside the expected range 54.5% of the time.
Past earnings reactions
Avg |reaction| 5.8% · median 3.6% (21 reports). Two-session close-to-close window; definition
About FedEx Corporation
FedEx Corporation is a prominent global entity that delivers an extensive array of services encompassing transportation, e-commerce solutions, and diverse business support, catering to clients both within the United States and across international borders. Its operational structure is divided into several key segments: The FedEx Express division specializes in expedited shipping, offering rapid package and freight delivery, crucial time-sensitive logistics, and comprehensive cross-border, technological, and e-commerce transportation services. FedEx Ground focuses on reliable, scheduled delivery services for both commercial clients and individual households. The FedEx Freight unit manages less-than-truckload (LTL) cargo shipments, supported by a significant infrastructure that, as of May 31, 2022, included approximately 30,000 vehicles and 400 service centers. FedEx Services provides essential internal support functions across the company, such as sales, marketing, information technology, communications, customer and technical assistance, billing, collections, and other vital administrative operations. Finally, the Corporate, Other, and Eliminations segment broadens FedEx's offering
Industrials · Integrated Freight & Logistics · NYSE · Profile: Financial Modeling Prep
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