USO 预期波动历史 United States Oil Fund, LP
每个交易日收盘后，我们记录期权市场对各到期日的定价——均在结果揭晓前留存。到期日过后，实际结果会附记于原始预估值旁。预估值在事后绝不修改。 如何解读这些统计数据 · 记录开始于 Aug 31, 2026
已解决的比较项151
收盘价处于区间内72%
|实际值| 低于预期值71%
平均预期波动幅度±6.1%
平均|实际|波动幅度4.3%
平均绝对误差3.2pt
隐含与已实现波动率，按到期日
每个到期日：琥珀色轮廓框为最接近到期时记录的预期涨跌幅；实心柱为股票实际涨跌幅。柱形下方标注带符号的具体数值。
预期（已记录）实际
已记录（等待结果）
| 快照 | 到期时间 | DTE | 当时现货价 | 预期涨跌幅 | 区间 | 方法 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | Oct 16 | 0 | 162.00 | ±0.2% | 161.65–162.35 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 16 | 2 | 153.66 | ±2.5% | 149.85–157.47 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 16 | 3 | 153.11 | ±3.0% | 148.58–157.65 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 16 | 7 | 148.49 | ±4.7% | 141.47–155.51 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 16 | 8 | 147.64 | ±5.1% | 140.14–155.14 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 16 | 9 | 143.90 | ±5.6% | 135.85–151.95 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 16 | 10 | 144.86 | ±5.8% | 136.49–153.24 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 16 | 11 | 143.90 | ±5.9% | 135.40–152.40 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 16 | 14 | 146.86 | ±7.3% | 136.09–157.63 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 16 | 15 | 150.10 | ±7.7% | 138.57–161.62 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 16 | 23 | 144.08 | ±10.0% | 129.66–158.50 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 16 | 24 | 144.60 | ±9.9% | 130.25–158.95 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 16 | 25 | 147.59 | ±9.8% | 133.14–162.04 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 16 | 28 | 153.43 | ±10.2% | 137.73–169.13 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 16 | 29 | 155.39 | ±10.9% | 138.51–172.26 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 16 | 30 | 156.27 | ±12.1% | 137.35–175.20 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 16 | 31 | 161.30 | ±13.0% | 140.28–182.32 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 16 | 32 | 156.70 | ±13.1% | 136.22–177.18 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 16 | 35 | 153.91 | ±13.5% | 133.18–174.63 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 16 | 36 | 160.08 | ±14.3% | 137.21–182.96 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 16 | 37 | 150.04 | ±11.9% | 132.19–167.89 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 16 | 38 | 146.69 | ±11.8% | 129.34–164.04 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 16 | 39 | 141.96 | ±11.6% | 125.56–158.36 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 16 | 42 | 141.71 | ±11.6% | 125.31–158.11 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 16 | 43 | 142.30 | ±11.9% | 125.42–159.18 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Oct 16 | 44 | 140.80 | ±12.3% | 123.50–158.10 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Oct 16 | 45 | 140.85 | ±13.0% | 122.50–159.20 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Oct 16 | 46 | 134.19 | ±12.1% | 117.97–150.41 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 21 | 5 | 162.00 | ±4.0% | 155.57–168.43 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 21 | 7 | 153.66 | ±4.5% | 146.78–160.53 | em-1.0 |
已归档快照
| 快照 | 已到期 | 预期值 | 实际值 | 在区间内？ | 现货价 → 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±0.3% | -0.1% | 区间内 | 153.66 → 153.56 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±1.7% | +0.3% | 区间内 | 153.11 → 153.56 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±3.8% | +3.4% | 区间内 | 148.49 → 153.56 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±4.0% | +4.0% | 区间内 | 147.64 → 153.56 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±4.5% | +6.7% | 区间外 | 143.90 → 153.56 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±4.9% | +6.0% | 区间外 | 144.86 → 153.56 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±5.4% | +6.7% | 区间外 | 143.90 → 153.56 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±6.4% | +4.6% | 区间内 | 146.86 → 153.56 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±7.2% | +2.3% | 区间内 | 150.10 → 153.56 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.4% | -0.2% | 区间内 | 148.49 → 148.20 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.0% | +0.4% | 区间内 | 147.64 → 148.20 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.8% | +3.0% | 区间外 | 143.90 → 148.20 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.4% | +2.3% | 区间内 | 144.86 → 148.20 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.1% | +3.0% | 区间内 | 143.90 → 148.20 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.1% | +0.9% | 区间内 | 146.86 → 148.20 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.9% | -1.3% | 区间内 | 150.10 → 148.20 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.0% | +2.9% | 区间内 | 144.08 → 148.20 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.0% | +2.5% | 区间内 | 144.60 → 148.20 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.4% | +0.4% | 区间内 | 147.59 → 148.20 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.8% | -3.4% | 区间内 | 153.43 → 148.20 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.3% | -4.6% | 区间内 | 155.39 → 148.20 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.6% | -5.2% | 区间内 | 156.27 → 148.20 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.6% | -8.1% | 区间内 | 161.30 → 148.20 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.4% | -5.4% | 区间内 | 156.70 → 148.20 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.6% | -3.7% | 区间内 | 153.91 → 148.20 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.1% | -7.4% | 区间内 | 160.08 → 148.20 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.6% | -1.2% | 区间内 | 150.04 → 148.20 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.6% | +1.0% | 区间内 | 146.69 → 148.20 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.3% | +4.4% | 区间内 | 141.96 → 148.20 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.3% | +4.6% | 区间内 | 141.71 → 148.20 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.8% | +4.1% | 区间内 | 142.30 → 148.20 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.3% | +5.3% | 区间内 | 140.80 → 148.20 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.1% | +5.2% | 区间内 | 140.85 → 148.20 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.0% | +10.4% | 区间内 | 134.19 → 148.20 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 07 | ±0.4% | +0.0% | 区间内 | 143.90 → 143.91 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 07 | ±1.9% | -0.7% | 区间内 | 144.86 → 143.91 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 07 | ±3.0% | +0.0% | 区间内 | 143.90 → 143.91 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 07 | ±4.1% | -2.0% | 区间内 | 146.86 → 143.91 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 07 | ±4.9% | -4.1% | 区间内 | 150.10 → 143.91 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 07 | ±8.0% | -0.1% | 区间内 | 144.08 → 143.91 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 07 | ±8.2% | -0.5% | 区间内 | 144.60 → 143.91 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.3% | +0.3% | 区间外 | 146.86 → 147.37 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.3% | -1.8% | 区间内 | 150.10 → 147.37 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.0% | +2.3% | 区间内 | 144.08 → 147.37 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.0% | +1.9% | 区间内 | 144.60 → 147.37 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.9% | -0.2% | 区间内 | 147.59 → 147.37 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.1% | -4.0% | 区间内 | 153.43 → 147.37 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.8% | -5.2% | 区间内 | 155.39 → 147.37 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.5% | -5.7% | 区间内 | 156.27 → 147.37 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.8% | -8.6% | 区间内 | 161.30 → 147.37 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.9% | -6.0% | 区间内 | 156.70 → 147.37 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±11.1% | -4.2% | 区间内 | 153.91 → 147.37 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±11.6% | -7.9% | 区间内 | 160.08 → 147.37 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.2% | -1.8% | 区间内 | 150.04 → 147.37 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.0% | +0.5% | 区间内 | 146.69 → 147.37 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.4% | +3.8% | 区间内 | 141.96 → 147.37 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.4% | +4.0% | 区间内 | 141.71 → 147.37 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.7% | +3.6% | 区间内 | 142.30 → 147.37 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±10.0% | +4.7% | 区间内 | 140.80 → 147.37 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±10.8% | +4.6% | 区间内 | 140.85 → 147.37 |
结果通过比较记录的价格区间与到期日收盘价得出。各行显示所用方法版本（与当前版本不同时）；当前版本： em-1.0.