USO historial de movimiento esperado United States Oil Fund, LP
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas179
Cierre dentro del rango66%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado66%
Movimiento esperado promedio±6.6%
Movimiento |real| promedio5.0%
Error medio abs.3.5pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 21 | 2 | 160.65 | ±2.5% | 156.57–164.74 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 21 | 5 | 162.00 | ±4.0% | 155.57–168.43 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 21 | 7 | 153.66 | ±4.5% | 146.78–160.53 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 21 | 8 | 153.11 | ±4.6% | 146.07–160.16 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 21 | 12 | 148.49 | ±6.1% | 139.47–157.51 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 21 | 13 | 147.64 | ±6.4% | 138.14–157.14 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 21 | 14 | 143.90 | ±6.7% | 134.20–153.60 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 21 | 15 | 144.86 | ±7.3% | 134.24–155.49 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 160.65 | ±3.7% | 154.76–166.54 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 162.00 | ±4.8% | 154.15–169.85 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 153.66 | ±5.3% | 145.49–161.84 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 153.11 | ±5.7% | 144.31–161.91 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 148.49 | ±6.7% | 138.59–158.39 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 147.64 | ±7.0% | 137.26–158.01 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 143.90 | ±7.6% | 132.93–154.88 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 144.86 | ±7.8% | 133.56–156.16 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 143.90 | ±8.1% | 132.28–155.53 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 146.86 | ±9.3% | 133.26–160.46 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 150.10 | ±9.3% | 136.10–164.10 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 144.08 | ±11.8% | 127.13–161.03 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 144.60 | ±11.3% | 128.22–160.97 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 147.59 | ±11.2% | 131.04–164.14 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 153.43 | ±11.4% | 135.93–170.93 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 155.39 | ±12.2% | 136.47–174.31 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 156.27 | ±13.3% | 135.42–177.12 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 161.30 | ±14.5% | 137.85–184.75 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 156.70 | ±14.1% | 134.62–178.78 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 153.91 | ±14.4% | 131.78–176.03 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 160.08 | ±15.1% | 135.83–184.33 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 150.04 | ±13.3% | 130.12–169.97 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.2% | -0.1% | dentro | 162.00 → 161.76 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.5% | +5.3% | fuera | 153.66 → 161.76 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.0% | +5.6% | fuera | 153.11 → 161.76 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.7% | +8.9% | fuera | 148.49 → 161.76 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.1% | +9.6% | fuera | 147.64 → 161.76 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.6% | +12.4% | fuera | 143.90 → 161.76 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.8% | +11.7% | fuera | 144.86 → 161.76 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.9% | +12.4% | fuera | 143.90 → 161.76 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.3% | +10.1% | fuera | 146.86 → 161.76 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.7% | +7.8% | fuera | 150.10 → 161.76 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.0% | +12.3% | fuera | 144.08 → 161.76 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.9% | +11.9% | fuera | 144.60 → 161.76 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.8% | +9.6% | dentro | 147.59 → 161.76 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.2% | +5.4% | dentro | 153.43 → 161.76 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.9% | +4.1% | dentro | 155.39 → 161.76 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.1% | +3.5% | dentro | 156.27 → 161.76 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.0% | +0.3% | dentro | 161.30 → 161.76 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.1% | +3.2% | dentro | 156.70 → 161.76 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.5% | +5.1% | dentro | 153.91 → 161.76 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±14.3% | +1.0% | dentro | 160.08 → 161.76 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.9% | +7.8% | dentro | 150.04 → 161.76 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.8% | +10.3% | dentro | 146.69 → 161.76 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.6% | +13.9% | fuera | 141.96 → 161.76 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.6% | +14.1% | fuera | 141.71 → 161.76 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.9% | +13.7% | fuera | 142.30 → 161.76 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.3% | +14.9% | fuera | 140.80 → 161.76 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.0% | +14.8% | fuera | 140.85 → 161.76 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.1% | +20.5% | fuera | 134.19 → 161.76 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±0.3% | -0.1% | dentro | 153.66 → 153.56 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±1.7% | +0.3% | dentro | 153.11 → 153.56 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±3.8% | +3.4% | dentro | 148.49 → 153.56 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±4.0% | +4.0% | dentro | 147.64 → 153.56 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±4.5% | +6.7% | fuera | 143.90 → 153.56 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±4.9% | +6.0% | fuera | 144.86 → 153.56 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±5.4% | +6.7% | fuera | 143.90 → 153.56 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±6.4% | +4.6% | dentro | 146.86 → 153.56 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±7.2% | +2.3% | dentro | 150.10 → 153.56 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.4% | -0.2% | dentro | 148.49 → 148.20 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.0% | +0.4% | dentro | 147.64 → 148.20 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.8% | +3.0% | fuera | 143.90 → 148.20 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.4% | +2.3% | dentro | 144.86 → 148.20 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.1% | +3.0% | dentro | 143.90 → 148.20 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.1% | +0.9% | dentro | 146.86 → 148.20 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.9% | -1.3% | dentro | 150.10 → 148.20 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.0% | +2.9% | dentro | 144.08 → 148.20 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.0% | +2.5% | dentro | 144.60 → 148.20 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.4% | +0.4% | dentro | 147.59 → 148.20 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.8% | -3.4% | dentro | 153.43 → 148.20 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.3% | -4.6% | dentro | 155.39 → 148.20 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.6% | -5.2% | dentro | 156.27 → 148.20 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.6% | -8.1% | dentro | 161.30 → 148.20 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.4% | -5.4% | dentro | 156.70 → 148.20 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.6% | -3.7% | dentro | 153.91 → 148.20 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.1% | -7.4% | dentro | 160.08 → 148.20 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.6% | -1.2% | dentro | 150.04 → 148.20 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.6% | +1.0% | dentro | 146.69 → 148.20 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.3% | +4.4% | dentro | 141.96 → 148.20 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.3% | +4.6% | dentro | 141.71 → 148.20 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.8% | +4.1% | dentro | 142.30 → 148.20 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.3% | +5.3% | dentro | 140.80 → 148.20 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.