USB geschiedenis verwachte beweging U.S. Bancorp
Elke handelsdag na de sluiting leggen we vast wat de optiemarkt inprijst — per vervaldatum, voordat de uitkomst bekend is. Wanneer een vervaldatum passeert, wordt de uitkomst naast de oorspronkelijke schatting vermeld. Schattingen worden achteraf nooit herzien. Hoe deze statistieken te lezen · vastlegging sinds Aug 31, 2026
Vergelijkingen opgelost121
Sluiting binnen bandbreedte50%
|Werkelijk| onder verwacht50%
Gem. verwachte beweging±3.9%
Gem. |werkelijke| beweging4.2%
Gem. abs. fout1.7pt
Impliciet vs. gerealiseerd, per expiratie
Voor elke vervaldatum: de oranje omlijning is de expected move die het dichtst bij de vervaldatum is vastgelegd; de solide balk is wat het aandeel werkelijk heeft gedaan. Getekende waarden staan onder de balken vermeld.
verwacht (vastgelegd)werkelijk
Momenteel vastgelegd (uitkomst nog onbekend)
| Snapshot | Vervalt | DTE | Spot destijds | Expected move | Bereik | Methode |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 57.92 | ±2.3% | 56.59–59.24 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 58.68 | ±2.8% | 57.06–60.30 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 56.10 | ±4.3% | 53.69–58.51 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 56.90 | ±4.3% | 54.48–59.33 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 57.08 | ±4.6% | 54.43–59.73 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 57.03 | ±4.8% | 54.31–59.75 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 56.25 | ±5.2% | 53.33–59.17 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 57.29 | ±5.1% | 54.35–60.23 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 57.40 | ±5.3% | 54.34–60.46 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 57.51 | ±5.5% | 54.36–60.66 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 56.66 | ±5.5% | 53.54–59.78 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 59.53 | ±6.3% | 55.77–63.30 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 59.53 | ±6.3% | 55.77–63.30 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 60.46 | ±6.3% | 56.66–64.27 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 60.06 | ±6.2% | 56.32–63.80 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 60.25 | ±6.5% | 56.32–64.18 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 59.30 | ±6.8% | 55.25–63.36 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 63.02 | ±6.5% | 58.92–67.12 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 63.06 | ±6.5% | 58.96–67.16 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 62.84 | ±6.6% | 58.70–66.98 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 62.11 | ±7.0% | 57.74–66.47 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 62.11 | ±7.0% | 57.74–66.47 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 62.49 | ±7.1% | 58.05–66.92 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 63.05 | ±7.0% | 58.65–67.45 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 63.38 | ±7.0% | 58.94–67.83 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 63.67 | ±7.1% | 59.13–68.21 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 57.92 | ±3.4% | 55.96–59.88 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 58.68 | ±3.7% | 56.48–60.88 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 56.10 | ±5.0% | 53.30–58.91 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 56.90 | ±5.1% | 54.01–59.80 | em-1.0 |
Vastgelegde snapshots
| Snapshot | Verlopen | Verwacht | Werkelijk | Binnen bereik? | Spot → slotkoers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.8% | +0.1% | binnen | 58.68 → 58.73 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.3% | +4.7% | buiten | 56.10 → 58.73 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.5% | +3.2% | binnen | 56.90 → 58.73 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.0% | +2.9% | binnen | 57.08 → 58.73 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.0% | +3.0% | binnen | 57.03 → 58.73 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.4% | +4.4% | buiten | 56.25 → 58.73 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.5% | +2.5% | binnen | 57.29 → 58.73 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.6% | +2.3% | binnen | 57.40 → 58.73 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.0% | +2.1% | binnen | 57.51 → 58.73 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.1% | +3.7% | binnen | 56.66 → 58.73 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.7% | -1.3% | binnen | 59.53 → 58.73 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.7% | -1.3% | binnen | 59.53 → 58.73 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.5% | -2.9% | binnen | 60.46 → 58.73 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.7% | -2.2% | binnen | 60.06 → 58.73 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.0% | -2.5% | binnen | 60.25 → 58.73 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.5% | -1.0% | binnen | 59.30 → 58.73 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.0% | -6.8% | buiten | 63.02 → 58.73 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.8% | -6.9% | buiten | 63.06 → 58.73 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.0% | -6.5% | buiten | 62.84 → 58.73 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.3% | -5.4% | binnen | 62.11 → 58.73 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.3% | -5.4% | binnen | 62.11 → 58.73 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.5% | -6.0% | binnen | 62.49 → 58.73 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.6% | -6.9% | buiten | 63.05 → 58.73 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.5% | -7.3% | buiten | 63.38 → 58.73 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.8% | -7.8% | buiten | 63.67 → 58.73 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.7% | -5.5% | binnen | 62.14 → 58.73 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.1% | -4.1% | binnen | 61.21 → 58.73 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.9% | -5.1% | binnen | 61.88 → 58.73 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.6% | +0.0% | binnen | 57.08 → 57.08 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.0% | +0.1% | binnen | 57.03 → 57.08 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.7% | +1.5% | binnen | 56.25 → 57.08 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.7% | -0.4% | binnen | 57.29 → 57.08 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.2% | -0.6% | binnen | 57.40 → 57.08 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.5% | -0.7% | binnen | 57.51 → 57.08 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.1% | +0.7% | binnen | 56.66 → 57.08 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.3% | -4.1% | binnen | 59.53 → 57.08 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.3% | -4.1% | binnen | 59.53 → 57.08 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.2% | -5.6% | buiten | 60.46 → 57.08 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.5% | -5.0% | buiten | 60.06 → 57.08 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.7% | -5.3% | buiten | 60.25 → 57.08 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.1% | -3.8% | binnen | 59.30 → 57.08 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.7% | -9.4% | buiten | 63.02 → 57.08 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.7% | -9.5% | buiten | 63.06 → 57.08 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.8% | -9.2% | buiten | 62.84 → 57.08 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.3% | -8.1% | buiten | 62.11 → 57.08 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.3% | -8.1% | buiten | 62.11 → 57.08 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.4% | -8.7% | buiten | 62.49 → 57.08 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.3% | -9.5% | buiten | 63.05 → 57.08 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.3% | -9.9% | buiten | 63.38 → 57.08 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.5% | -10.3% | buiten | 63.67 → 57.08 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.7% | -8.1% | buiten | 62.14 → 57.08 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.0% | -6.7% | buiten | 61.21 → 57.08 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.0% | -7.8% | buiten | 61.88 → 57.08 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.0% | +0.0% | binnen | 57.51 → 57.51 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.5% | +1.5% | buiten | 56.66 → 57.51 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.6% | -3.4% | binnen | 59.53 → 57.51 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.6% | -3.4% | binnen | 59.53 → 57.51 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.4% | -4.9% | buiten | 60.46 → 57.51 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.8% | -4.2% | buiten | 60.06 → 57.51 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.0% | -4.5% | buiten | 60.25 → 57.51 |
Uitkomsten vergelijken de geregistreerde bandbreedte met de slotkoers op de expiratiedag. De methodversie wordt per rij weergegeven waar deze afwijkt; huidig: em-1.0.