UPS 预期波动历史 United Parcel Service, Inc.
每个交易日收盘后，我们记录期权市场对各到期日的定价——均在结果揭晓前留存。到期日过后，实际结果会附记于原始预估值旁。预估值在事后绝不修改。 如何解读这些统计数据 · 记录开始于 Aug 31, 2026
已解决的比较项93
收盘价处于区间内43%
|实际值| 低于预期值43%
平均预期波动幅度±3.6%
平均|实际|波动幅度4.5%
平均绝对误差1.9pt
隐含与已实现波动率，按到期日
每个到期日：琥珀色轮廓框为最接近到期时记录的预期涨跌幅；实心柱为股票实际涨跌幅。柱形下方标注带符号的具体数值。
预期（已记录）实际
已记录（等待结果）
| 快照 | 到期时间 | DTE | 当时现货价 | 预期涨跌幅 | 区间 | 方法 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | Oct 16 | 0 | 97.48 | ±0.5% | 97.00–97.97 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 16 | 2 | 95.78 | ±1.7% | 94.12–97.44 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 16 | 3 | 94.90 | ±1.9% | 93.14–96.67 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 16 | 7 | 94.57 | ±2.5% | 92.18–96.96 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 16 | 8 | 94.14 | ±2.7% | 91.59–96.69 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 16 | 9 | 92.33 | ±3.1% | 89.50–95.17 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 16 | 10 | 93.11 | ±3.2% | 90.17–96.05 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 16 | 11 | 93.53 | ±3.3% | 90.40–96.66 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 16 | 14 | 92.99 | ±3.7% | 89.52–96.45 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 16 | 15 | 94.38 | ±4.0% | 90.56–98.20 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 16 | 23 | 95.16 | ±5.1% | 90.31–100.02 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 16 | 24 | 95.16 | ±5.1% | 90.31–100.02 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 16 | 25 | 94.93 | ±5.1% | 90.07–99.78 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 16 | 28 | 99.23 | ±5.3% | 94.00–104.46 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 16 | 29 | 100.71 | ±5.5% | 95.20–106.22 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 16 | 30 | 100.13 | ±5.8% | 94.34–105.91 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 16 | 31 | 102.00 | ±6.2% | 95.66–108.34 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 16 | 32 | 102.06 | ±6.2% | 95.71–108.40 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 16 | 35 | 99.80 | ±6.0% | 93.83–105.78 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 16 | 36 | 99.87 | ±6.1% | 93.74–106.00 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 16 | 37 | 99.48 | ±6.1% | 93.40–105.56 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 16 | 38 | 101.52 | ±6.7% | 94.69–108.34 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 16 | 39 | 102.32 | ±6.6% | 95.52–109.12 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 16 | 42 | 102.37 | ±6.7% | 95.47–109.27 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 16 | 43 | 103.73 | ±6.6% | 96.88–110.58 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Oct 16 | 44 | 102.83 | ±6.8% | 95.86–109.81 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Oct 16 | 45 | 102.64 | ±6.8% | 95.70–109.57 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Oct 16 | 46 | 104.25 | ±6.8% | 97.15–111.35 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 97.48 | ±2.9% | 94.62–100.34 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 95.78 | ±3.2% | 92.69–98.86 | em-1.0 |
已归档快照
| 快照 | 已到期 | 预期值 | 实际值 | 在区间内？ | 现货价 → 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.7% | +0.0% | 区间内 | 94.57 → 94.57 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.2% | +0.5% | 区间内 | 94.14 → 94.57 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.7% | +2.4% | 区间外 | 92.33 → 94.57 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.8% | +1.6% | 区间内 | 93.11 → 94.57 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.3% | +1.1% | 区间内 | 93.53 → 94.57 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.6% | +1.7% | 区间内 | 92.99 → 94.57 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.9% | +0.2% | 区间内 | 94.38 → 94.57 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.4% | -0.6% | 区间内 | 95.16 → 94.57 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.4% | -0.6% | 区间内 | 95.16 → 94.57 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.4% | -0.4% | 区间内 | 94.93 → 94.57 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.6% | -4.7% | 区间外 | 99.23 → 94.57 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.8% | -6.1% | 区间外 | 100.71 → 94.57 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.2% | -5.5% | 区间外 | 100.13 → 94.57 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.1% | -7.3% | 区间外 | 102.00 → 94.57 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.1% | -7.3% | 区间外 | 102.06 → 94.57 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.3% | -5.2% | 区间内 | 99.80 → 94.57 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.5% | -5.3% | 区间内 | 99.87 → 94.57 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.8% | -4.9% | 区间内 | 99.48 → 94.57 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.7% | -6.8% | 区间外 | 101.52 → 94.57 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.9% | -7.6% | 区间外 | 102.32 → 94.57 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.9% | -7.6% | 区间外 | 102.37 → 94.57 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.8% | -8.8% | 区间外 | 103.73 → 94.57 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.1% | -8.0% | 区间外 | 102.83 → 94.57 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.4% | -7.9% | 区间外 | 102.64 → 94.57 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.4% | -9.3% | 区间外 | 104.25 → 94.57 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.2% | +0.0% | 区间内 | 92.99 → 93.02 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.2% | -1.4% | 区间外 | 94.38 → 93.02 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.5% | -2.2% | 区间内 | 95.16 → 93.02 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.5% | -2.2% | 区间内 | 95.16 → 93.02 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.5% | -2.0% | 区间内 | 94.93 → 93.02 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.8% | -6.3% | 区间外 | 99.23 → 93.02 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.0% | -7.6% | 区间外 | 100.71 → 93.02 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.3% | -7.1% | 区间外 | 100.13 → 93.02 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.3% | -8.8% | 区间外 | 102.00 → 93.02 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.3% | -8.9% | 区间外 | 102.06 → 93.02 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.6% | -6.8% | 区间外 | 99.80 → 93.02 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.8% | -6.9% | 区间外 | 99.87 → 93.02 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.8% | -6.5% | 区间外 | 99.48 → 93.02 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.0% | -8.4% | 区间外 | 101.52 → 93.02 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.1% | -9.1% | 区间外 | 102.32 → 93.02 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.2% | -9.1% | 区间外 | 102.37 → 93.02 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.3% | -10.3% | 区间外 | 103.73 → 93.02 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.4% | -9.5% | 区间外 | 102.83 → 93.02 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.5% | -9.4% | 区间外 | 102.64 → 93.02 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.7% | -10.8% | 区间外 | 104.25 → 93.02 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±2.3% | -1.3% | 区间内 | 95.16 → 93.96 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±2.3% | -1.3% | 区间内 | 95.16 → 93.96 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±2.3% | -1.0% | 区间内 | 94.93 → 93.96 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±2.6% | -5.3% | 区间外 | 99.23 → 93.96 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.0% | -6.7% | 区间外 | 100.71 → 93.96 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.3% | -6.2% | 区间外 | 100.13 → 93.96 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.5% | -7.9% | 区间外 | 102.00 → 93.96 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.5% | -7.9% | 区间外 | 102.06 → 93.96 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.8% | -5.9% | 区间外 | 99.80 → 93.96 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.1% | -5.9% | 区间外 | 99.87 → 93.96 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.0% | -5.5% | 区间外 | 99.48 → 93.96 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.3% | -7.4% | 区间外 | 101.52 → 93.96 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.4% | -8.2% | 区间外 | 102.32 → 93.96 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.3% | -8.2% | 区间外 | 102.37 → 93.96 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.5% | -9.4% | 区间外 | 103.73 → 93.96 |
结果通过比较记录的价格区间与到期日收盘价得出。各行显示所用方法版本（与当前版本不同时）；当前版本： em-1.0.