UNH historial de movimiento esperado UnitedHealth Group Incorporated
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas121
Cierre dentro del rango77%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado77%
Movimiento esperado promedio±5.1%
Movimiento |real| promedio3.2%
Error medio abs.2.4pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 406.51 | ±2.7% | 395.49–417.54 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 401.10 | ±3.8% | 386.02–416.18 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 394.78 | ±4.0% | 378.86–410.70 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 377.78 | ±4.8% | 359.80–395.75 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 379.46 | ±7.8% | 349.94–408.99 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 368.82 | ±8.6% | 337.09–400.54 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 375.00 | ±8.6% | 342.80–407.20 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 376.32 | ±8.2% | 345.44–407.19 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 378.00 | ±9.0% | 344.07–411.93 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 371.49 | ±8.6% | 339.49–403.49 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 365.50 | ±8.7% | 333.63–397.38 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 373.29 | ±9.2% | 339.09–407.49 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 373.04 | ±9.2% | 338.84–407.24 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 377.34 | ±9.1% | 343.04–411.64 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 377.34 | ±9.4% | 342.02–412.67 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 375.50 | ±9.1% | 341.32–409.68 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 375.63 | ±9.2% | 341.00–410.25 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 376.21 | ±9.0% | 342.34–410.09 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 383.46 | ±9.0% | 349.11–417.81 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 378.75 | ±9.0% | 344.73–412.77 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 388.19 | ±9.4% | 351.79–424.59 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 392.74 | ±9.4% | 355.84–429.64 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 400.26 | ±10.2% | 359.58–440.94 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 396.85 | ±9.6% | 358.60–435.10 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 397.47 | ±9.4% | 360.02–434.92 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 400.23 | ±9.5% | 362.18–438.28 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 406.51 | ±4.0% | 390.38–422.63 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 401.10 | ±5.0% | 381.12–421.07 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 394.78 | ±5.1% | 374.53–415.03 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 377.78 | ±5.7% | 356.28–399.28 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.4% | +0.1% | dentro | 401.10 → 401.43 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.2% | +1.7% | dentro | 394.78 → 401.43 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.2% | +6.3% | fuera | 377.78 → 401.43 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.2% | +5.8% | dentro | 379.46 → 401.43 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.0% | +8.8% | fuera | 368.82 → 401.43 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.0% | +7.0% | dentro | 375.00 → 401.43 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.0% | +6.7% | dentro | 376.32 → 401.43 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.2% | +6.2% | dentro | 378.00 → 401.43 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.0% | +8.1% | fuera | 371.49 → 401.43 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.1% | +9.8% | fuera | 365.50 → 401.43 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.5% | +7.5% | dentro | 373.29 → 401.43 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.6% | +7.6% | dentro | 373.04 → 401.43 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.5% | +6.4% | dentro | 377.34 → 401.43 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.9% | +6.4% | dentro | 377.34 → 401.43 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.1% | +6.9% | dentro | 375.50 → 401.43 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.7% | +6.9% | dentro | 375.63 → 401.43 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.1% | +6.7% | dentro | 376.21 → 401.43 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.0% | +4.7% | dentro | 383.46 → 401.43 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.6% | +6.0% | dentro | 378.75 → 401.43 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.7% | +3.4% | dentro | 388.19 → 401.43 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.5% | +2.2% | dentro | 392.74 → 401.43 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.2% | +0.3% | dentro | 400.26 → 401.43 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.9% | +1.2% | dentro | 396.85 → 401.43 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.5% | +1.0% | dentro | 397.47 → 401.43 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.7% | +0.3% | dentro | 400.23 → 401.43 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.7% | +0.7% | dentro | 398.63 → 401.43 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.0% | +1.5% | dentro | 395.58 → 401.43 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.7% | +3.1% | dentro | 389.49 → 401.43 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.3% | -0.0% | dentro | 379.46 → 379.30 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.7% | +2.8% | dentro | 368.82 → 379.30 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.2% | +1.1% | dentro | 375.00 → 379.30 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.9% | +0.8% | dentro | 376.32 → 379.30 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.0% | +0.3% | dentro | 378.00 → 379.30 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.7% | +2.1% | dentro | 371.49 → 379.30 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.3% | +3.8% | dentro | 365.50 → 379.30 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.7% | +1.6% | dentro | 373.29 → 379.30 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.7% | +1.7% | dentro | 373.04 → 379.30 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.6% | +0.5% | dentro | 377.34 → 379.30 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.4% | +0.5% | dentro | 377.34 → 379.30 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.3% | +1.0% | dentro | 375.50 → 379.30 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.4% | +1.0% | dentro | 375.63 → 379.30 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.4% | +0.8% | dentro | 376.21 → 379.30 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.3% | -1.1% | dentro | 383.46 → 379.30 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.3% | +0.1% | dentro | 378.75 → 379.30 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.1% | -2.3% | dentro | 388.19 → 379.30 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.2% | -3.4% | dentro | 392.74 → 379.30 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.1% | -5.2% | dentro | 400.26 → 379.30 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.3% | -4.4% | dentro | 396.85 → 379.30 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.8% | -4.6% | dentro | 397.47 → 379.30 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.0% | -5.2% | dentro | 400.23 → 379.30 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.5% | -4.8% | dentro | 398.63 → 379.30 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.8% | -4.1% | dentro | 395.58 → 379.30 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.8% | -2.6% | dentro | 389.49 → 379.30 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.5% | +0.1% | dentro | 371.49 → 371.90 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.6% | +1.8% | fuera | 365.50 → 371.90 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.2% | -0.4% | dentro | 373.29 → 371.90 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.2% | -0.3% | dentro | 373.04 → 371.90 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.2% | -1.4% | dentro | 377.34 → 371.90 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.7% | -1.4% | dentro | 377.34 → 371.90 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.2% | -1.0% | dentro | 375.50 → 371.90 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.