T-Mobile US, Inc. (TMUS)
Overview · Option chain · Volatility · Expected-move history · Earnings
Cboe delayed options data · as of Oct 19, 22:04 UTC · Figures derived from the full chain (1,414 contracts, 17 expirations) · IV own-history percentile appears after 60 recorded days (29 so far)
Expected move · Nov 20, 2026 (32 days)
Methodology →Read from option prices: the at-the-money straddle costs this much, so the market is pricing a move of about that size in either direction by this date. It is an estimate of movement, not a prediction of direction.
Options are pricing a move of about ±9.2% (range 141.90–170.70) by Nov 20, 2026. ATM straddle: 14.40 @ strike 157.5 · ATM IV: 38.7%.
Probability distribution
Model & assumptions →The curve shows where a lognormal model, fed with current implied volatility, puts the range of outcomes at this expiration. Shaded: the expected-move band.
| Level | vs price | P(above)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(below) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 140.67 | -10% | 80.6% | 19.4% |
| 148.49 | -5% | 65.2% | 34.8% |
| 156.30 | +0% | 47.7% | 52.3% |
| 164.12 | +5% | 31.4% | 68.6% |
| 171.93 | +10% | 18.7% | 81.3% |
Model-estimated probabilities of finishing above/below each level at expiration: estimates under stated assumptions, not predictions.
Probability explorer
Drag the slider to any level and see the model-estimated chance the stock finishes above or below it at the selected expiration.
Horizon: Nov 20, 2026 · lognormal model with zero drift: an estimate, not a prediction. Assumptions
Expirations
Open the chain →| Expires | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | Implied move | ATM IV | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | 4 | ±3.9% | 45.5% | 12.9K |
| Oct 30, 2026 | 11 | ±6.4% | 45.8% | 7,146 |
| Nov 06, 2026 | 18 | ±7.1% | 39.6% | 1,666 |
| Nov 13, 2026 | 25 | ±8.0% | 38.3% | 884 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 32 | ±9.2% | 38.7% | 19.8K |
| Nov 27, 2026 | 39 | ±9.9% | 37.5% | 372 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 60 | ±11.6% | 35.9% | 33.7K |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 88 | ±13.2% | 33.7% | 30.5K |
| Feb 19, 2027 | 123 | ±16.1% | 34.8% | 2,880 |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 151 | ±18.3% | 35.9% | 8,836 |
Open interest by strike · Nov 20
Where option positions are concentrated. Teal bars are calls, red bars are puts; the dashed line is the current price.
Largest open-interest concentrations (all expirations ≤ 60 days): 200 C · 6,250140 P · 6,066180 C · 3,922150 P · 3,330185 C · 2,857
IV term structure
Volatility page →At-the-money implied volatility for each expiration. A hump around a date often marks a scheduled event the market is pricing.
When does open interest expire?
Implied vs realized volatility
HV from our stored daily closes (annualized); IV30 interpolated from the chain. Method
Price, last 60 sessions
Daily closes; Financial Modeling Prep.
Track record
Full history →Of 121 recorded snapshot-versus-outcome comparisons so far, the close landed inside the expected range 29.8% of the time.
Past earnings reactions
Avg |reaction| 5.1% · median 5.8% (20 reports). Two-session close-to-close window; definition
About T-Mobile US, Inc.
T-Mobile US, Inc., alongside its subsidiaries, offers mobile telecommunications services across the United States, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Catering to approximately 108.7 million subscribers, the company delivers essential voice, messaging, and data connectivity to customers in postpaid, prepaid, and wholesale segments. Beyond services, T-Mobile also supplies a broad array of wireless devices, such as smartphones, wearables, tablets, and other mobile communication gadgets, along with associated accessories. These offerings are marketed under both the T-Mobile and Metro by T-Mobile brands. Direct distribution occurs through its proprietary retail stores, the T-Mobile mobile application, customer service channels, and its official online platforms. Additionally, the company provides devices to independent dealers and other distributors for resale via external retail locations and various third-party websites. As of December 31, 2021, its robust network infrastructure encompassed approximately 102,000 macro cell sites and 41,000 small cell/distributed antenna system locations. T-Mobile US, Inc. was established in 1994 and maintains its headquarters in Bellevue, Washi
Communication Services · Telecommunications Services · NASDAQ · Profile: Financial Modeling Prep
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