TLT histórico de movimento esperado iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
A cada dia útil, após o fechamento, registramos o que o mercado de opções estava precificando — por expiração, antes de o resultado ser conhecido. Quando uma expiração passa, o resultado é registrado ao lado da estimativa original. As estimativas nunca são revisadas após o fato. Como interpretar estas estatísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparações resolvidas200
Fechar dentro do intervalo45%
|Real| abaixo do esperado45%
Movimento esperado médio±1.7%
Movimento |real| médio2.4%
Erro médio absoluto1.3pt
Implícita vs. realizada, por vencimento
Para cada expiração: o contorno âmbar é o movimento esperado registrado mais próximo do vencimento; a barra sólida é o que a ação realmente fez. Os valores com sinal aparecem abaixo das barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Atualmente registado (a aguardar resultado)
| Snapshot | Expira | DTE | Spot na época | Movimento esperado | Intervalo | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 19 | 0 | 79.58 | ±0.1% | 79.54–79.62 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 19 | 3 | 80.05 | ±0.8% | 79.41–80.69 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 19 | 5 | 78.79 | ±1.2% | 77.88–79.70 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 19 | 6 | 78.38 | ±1.3% | 77.38–79.39 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 19 | 10 | 77.97 | ±1.5% | 76.77–79.17 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 19 | 11 | 77.83 | ±1.8% | 76.41–79.25 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 19 | 12 | 77.12 | ±1.9% | 75.64–78.60 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 19 | 13 | 77.25 | ±2.0% | 75.72–78.78 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 19 | 14 | 77.16 | ±2.3% | 75.36–78.97 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 21 | 2 | 79.58 | ±0.8% | 78.96–80.20 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 21 | 5 | 80.05 | ±1.2% | 79.09–81.00 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 21 | 7 | 78.79 | ±1.4% | 77.68–79.90 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 21 | 8 | 78.38 | ±1.5% | 77.19–79.56 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 21 | 12 | 77.97 | ±1.8% | 76.60–79.34 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 21 | 13 | 77.83 | ±2.1% | 76.23–79.43 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 21 | 14 | 77.12 | ±2.1% | 75.47–78.78 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 21 | 15 | 77.25 | ±2.2% | 75.56–78.94 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 79.58 | ±1.1% | 78.69–80.47 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 80.05 | ±1.5% | 78.81–81.28 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 78.79 | ±1.7% | 77.48–80.10 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 78.38 | ±1.7% | 77.01–79.75 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 77.97 | ±2.0% | 76.42–79.51 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 77.83 | ±2.3% | 76.06–79.59 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 77.12 | ±2.4% | 75.28–78.95 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 77.25 | ±2.4% | 75.39–79.11 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 77.16 | ±2.8% | 75.01–79.31 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 77.54 | ±2.9% | 75.28–79.80 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 77.75 | ±3.2% | 75.25–80.25 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 81.74 | ±2.5% | 79.69–83.80 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 81.64 | ±2.5% | 79.59–83.70 | em-1.0 |
Snapshots encerrados
| Snapshot | Expirado | Esperado | Real | Dentro do intervalo? | Spot → fechamento |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.1% | +0.0% | dentro | 80.05 → 80.05 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.0% | +1.6% | fora | 78.79 → 80.05 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.1% | +2.1% | fora | 78.38 → 80.05 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.4% | +2.7% | fora | 77.97 → 80.05 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.7% | +2.9% | fora | 77.83 → 80.05 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.8% | +3.8% | fora | 77.12 → 80.05 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.9% | +3.6% | fora | 77.25 → 80.05 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.2% | +3.7% | fora | 77.16 → 80.05 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.4% | +3.2% | fora | 77.54 → 80.05 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.7% | +3.0% | fora | 77.75 → 80.05 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.2% | -2.1% | dentro | 81.74 → 80.05 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.2% | -1.9% | dentro | 81.64 → 80.05 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.3% | -2.2% | dentro | 81.81 → 80.05 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.5% | -1.6% | dentro | 81.32 → 80.05 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.4% | -2.0% | dentro | 81.68 → 80.05 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.8% | -1.0% | dentro | 80.88 → 80.05 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.1% | -0.8% | dentro | 80.73 → 80.05 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.9% | -1.0% | dentro | 80.86 → 80.05 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.7% | -1.1% | dentro | 80.92 → 80.05 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.2% | -0.9% | dentro | 80.74 → 80.05 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.8% | -2.0% | dentro | 81.71 → 80.05 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.9% | -2.5% | dentro | 82.14 → 80.05 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.8% | -2.7% | dentro | 82.24 → 80.05 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.8% | -2.6% | dentro | 82.19 → 80.05 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.0% | -2.5% | dentro | 82.13 → 80.05 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.1% | -2.3% | dentro | 81.92 → 80.05 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.2% | -2.1% | dentro | 81.80 → 80.05 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.1% | -2.9% | dentro | 82.46 → 80.05 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±0.3% | +0.1% | dentro | 78.79 → 78.89 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±0.7% | +0.7% | dentro | 78.38 → 78.89 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±1.0% | +1.2% | fora | 77.97 → 78.89 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±1.4% | +1.4% | dentro | 77.83 → 78.89 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±1.5% | +2.3% | fora | 77.12 → 78.89 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±1.6% | +2.1% | fora | 77.25 → 78.89 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±1.9% | +2.2% | fora | 77.16 → 78.89 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±2.1% | +1.7% | dentro | 77.54 → 78.89 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±2.4% | +1.5% | dentro | 77.75 → 78.89 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±0.6% | +0.1% | dentro | 77.97 → 78.05 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±1.0% | +0.3% | dentro | 77.83 → 78.05 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±1.1% | +1.2% | fora | 77.12 → 78.05 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±1.2% | +1.0% | dentro | 77.25 → 78.05 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±1.5% | +1.2% | dentro | 77.16 → 78.05 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±1.7% | +0.7% | dentro | 77.54 → 78.05 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±2.1% | +0.4% | dentro | 77.75 → 78.05 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.1% | +0.0% | dentro | 77.97 → 77.98 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.8% | +0.2% | dentro | 77.83 → 77.98 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.9% | +1.1% | fora | 77.12 → 77.98 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.1% | +0.9% | dentro | 77.25 → 77.98 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.4% | +1.1% | dentro | 77.16 → 77.98 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.6% | +0.6% | dentro | 77.54 → 77.98 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.0% | +0.3% | dentro | 77.75 → 77.98 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.9% | -4.6% | fora | 81.74 → 77.98 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.9% | -4.5% | fora | 81.64 → 77.98 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.0% | -4.7% | fora | 81.81 → 77.98 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.2% | -4.1% | fora | 81.32 → 77.98 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.1% | -4.5% | fora | 81.68 → 77.98 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.4% | -3.6% | fora | 80.88 → 77.98 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.8% | -3.4% | fora | 80.73 → 77.98 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.6% | -3.6% | fora | 80.86 → 77.98 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.4% | -3.6% | fora | 80.92 → 77.98 |
Os resultados comparam o intervalo registado com o preço de fecho no dia de expiração. A versão do método é indicada por linha quando difere; atual: em-1.0.